ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
A bit of irony ...
Of course today is the 40th anniversary of Camille (separate thread). The storm that developed at just about the same time as Camille was Hurricane Debbie. This storm was famous for being the subject of the Project Stormfury experiment. Anyway, it's intensity and path may be pretty close to what Bill ultimately does.
Hurricane DEBBIE
14-25 AUG 1969
105 (Top Winds in Knots)
951 (Lowest pressure) and (category) 3
(Track) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Of course today is the 40th anniversary of Camille (separate thread). The storm that developed at just about the same time as Camille was Hurricane Debbie. This storm was famous for being the subject of the Project Stormfury experiment. Anyway, it's intensity and path may be pretty close to what Bill ultimately does.
Hurricane DEBBIE
14-25 AUG 1969
105 (Top Winds in Knots)
951 (Lowest pressure) and (category) 3
(Track) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
12z GFS shifted south and west in the long range, goes almost directly over Bermuda:


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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
Here's the latest 4 model 'grand global' ensemble from 8/17/09 at 00Z

The ensemble envelope in general has shifted even further E, but is still quite large after 120 hours with the western most portion primarily due to the MOGREPS (UKMET) members, though that ensemble has been generally shifting E with each run as well.
One thing I have noticed in the long range ECMWF and CMC forecasts for the big trough along the east coast is that the ECMWF and CMC are trending more amplified with the trough almost forming a bit of a cut off/weak Rex block type pattern. If that happens, that'll slow down the progression of the east coast trough and allow Bill to get further west versus the more progressive GFS which kicks Bill out to sea very quickly. Just something to keep an eye on.

The ensemble envelope in general has shifted even further E, but is still quite large after 120 hours with the western most portion primarily due to the MOGREPS (UKMET) members, though that ensemble has been generally shifting E with each run as well.
One thing I have noticed in the long range ECMWF and CMC forecasts for the big trough along the east coast is that the ECMWF and CMC are trending more amplified with the trough almost forming a bit of a cut off/weak Rex block type pattern. If that happens, that'll slow down the progression of the east coast trough and allow Bill to get further west versus the more progressive GFS which kicks Bill out to sea very quickly. Just something to keep an eye on.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
btangy wrote:Here's the latest 4 model 'grand global' ensemble from 8/17/09 at 00Z
The ensemble envelope in general has shifted even further E, but is still quite large after 120 hours with the western most portion primarily due to the MOGREPS (UKMET) members, though that ensemble has been generally shifting E with each run as well.
One thing I have noticed in the long range ECMWF and CMC forecasts for the big trough along the east coast is that the ECMWF and CMC are trending more amplified with the trough almost forming a bit of a cut off/weak Rex block type pattern. If that happens, that'll slow down the progression of the east coast trough and allow Bill to get further west versus the more progressive GFS which kicks Bill out to sea very quickly. Just something to keep an eye on.
Great discussion btangy. I noticed that the HPC is not sold totally on the deep trough as of yet. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
uhm...12Z CMC shifted to the west and now gets very close to Cape Cod and eastern Maine.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
Too close for confort for the islands shows 12z CMC.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
12z GFDL
More west,meaning a little more closer to islands.
WHXX04 KWBC 171722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BILL 03L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.9 44.6 285./14.0
6 14.4 46.1 291./15.2
12 14.9 47.5 288./14.4
18 15.3 48.9 284./14.6
24 15.7 50.3 287./13.9
30 16.1 51.6 289./13.4
36 16.6 52.8 292./11.6
42 17.0 54.1 289./13.4
48 17.6 55.3 295./13.4
54 18.1 56.6 292./12.9
60 18.8 57.8 299./12.8
66 19.4 59.0 297./13.4
72 20.3 60.3 304./14.6
78 21.1 61.5 305./14.8
84 22.1 62.7 308./14.4
90 23.0 63.9 310./14.2
96 24.2 64.9 320./14.6
102 25.4 65.8 322./15.0
108 26.7 66.7 327./15.1
114 28.1 67.6 326./15.9
120 29.5 68.3 334./15.8
126 31.0 68.9 339./15.4
More west,meaning a little more closer to islands.
WHXX04 KWBC 171722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE BILL 03L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.9 44.6 285./14.0
6 14.4 46.1 291./15.2
12 14.9 47.5 288./14.4
18 15.3 48.9 284./14.6
24 15.7 50.3 287./13.9
30 16.1 51.6 289./13.4
36 16.6 52.8 292./11.6
42 17.0 54.1 289./13.4
48 17.6 55.3 295./13.4
54 18.1 56.6 292./12.9
60 18.8 57.8 299./12.8
66 19.4 59.0 297./13.4
72 20.3 60.3 304./14.6
78 21.1 61.5 305./14.8
84 22.1 62.7 308./14.4
90 23.0 63.9 310./14.2
96 24.2 64.9 320./14.6
102 25.4 65.8 322./15.0
108 26.7 66.7 327./15.1
114 28.1 67.6 326./15.9
120 29.5 68.3 334./15.8
126 31.0 68.9 339./15.4
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
looking at the model trends, im not letting my guard down, even the canadian would give my area 50mph+ winds and heavy rain
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- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
FWIW the 12Z nogaps run looks very much like the CMC bringing Bill near 30/70 in 4 days and hitting Canada from the southwest thereafter.
The GFS representation of the ridge in 4 days is much stronger, with a less progressive pattern. Still waiting for the UKMET text guidance to see if it stays west.
All in all, more ridging means a nudge back to the left and a trend toward the UKMET solution.
Will be very interesting to see what the Euro does to the ridge in an hour...
MW
The GFS representation of the ridge in 4 days is much stronger, with a less progressive pattern. Still waiting for the UKMET text guidance to see if it stays west.
All in all, more ridging means a nudge back to the left and a trend toward the UKMET solution.
Will be very interesting to see what the Euro does to the ridge in an hour...
MW
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I believe the waters off of Nova Scotia are far warmer than normal - warmer even than in 2003 when Juan hit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html
Turn on SST once the loop loads. They may be warmer, but pretty darn cold.

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Re: Re:
drezee wrote:x-y-no wrote:Data just updated for 41041:
Latest pressure drop 7.0mb
That is the three hour pressure tendency, which is in the double digits now...
Anyone notice the 28+ ft seas at the buoy!!
thanks ... my mistake.
Latest pressure tendency -19.4 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
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