ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

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StormClouds63
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#1781 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:16 am

A bit of irony ...

Of course today is the 40th anniversary of Camille (separate thread). The storm that developed at just about the same time as Camille was Hurricane Debbie. This storm was famous for being the subject of the Project Stormfury experiment. Anyway, it's intensity and path may be pretty close to what Bill ultimately does.

Hurricane DEBBIE
14-25 AUG 1969
105 (Top Winds in Knots)
951 (Lowest pressure) and (category) 3
(Track) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1782 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:35 am

12z GFS shifted south and west in the long range, goes almost directly over Bermuda:

Image
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#1783 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:49 am

Is there anyone on Storm2K from Bermuda? Hope they are watching this closely!
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1784 Postby btangy » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:52 am

Here's the latest 4 model 'grand global' ensemble from 8/17/09 at 00Z

Image

The ensemble envelope in general has shifted even further E, but is still quite large after 120 hours with the western most portion primarily due to the MOGREPS (UKMET) members, though that ensemble has been generally shifting E with each run as well.

One thing I have noticed in the long range ECMWF and CMC forecasts for the big trough along the east coast is that the ECMWF and CMC are trending more amplified with the trough almost forming a bit of a cut off/weak Rex block type pattern. If that happens, that'll slow down the progression of the east coast trough and allow Bill to get further west versus the more progressive GFS which kicks Bill out to sea very quickly. Just something to keep an eye on.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1785 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 17, 2009 11:57 am

btangy wrote:Here's the latest 4 model 'grand global' ensemble from 8/17/09 at 00Z

Image

The ensemble envelope in general has shifted even further E, but is still quite large after 120 hours with the western most portion primarily due to the MOGREPS (UKMET) members, though that ensemble has been generally shifting E with each run as well.

One thing I have noticed in the long range ECMWF and CMC forecasts for the big trough along the east coast is that the ECMWF and CMC are trending more amplified with the trough almost forming a bit of a cut off/weak Rex block type pattern. If that happens, that'll slow down the progression of the east coast trough and allow Bill to get further west versus the more progressive GFS which kicks Bill out to sea very quickly. Just something to keep an eye on.



Great discussion btangy. I noticed that the HPC is not sold totally on the deep trough as of yet. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1786 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:04 pm

uhm...12Z CMC shifted to the west and now gets very close to Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009081712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1787 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:09 pm

Too close for confort for the islands shows 12z CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

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Derek Ortt

#1788 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:26 pm

CMC is also too close to New England for my liking. It does obliterate Nova Scotia so it is most certainly not a fish storm.

We have to watch and make sure the trough is not sharper. While a fish seems very unlikely, it may make the difference between Canada and New England
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#1789 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:29 pm

Looks like 12z HWRF and 12z GFDL get it to about 70W before going up and out.
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Derek Ortt

#1790 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:30 pm

12Z models in general have made a fairly major west shift

enough of that though for now, it's lunch time and paper searching time
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1791 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:31 pm

12z GFDL

More west,meaning a little more closer to islands.

WHXX04 KWBC 171722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE BILL 03L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.9 44.6 285./14.0
6 14.4 46.1 291./15.2
12 14.9 47.5 288./14.4
18 15.3 48.9 284./14.6
24 15.7 50.3 287./13.9
30 16.1 51.6 289./13.4
36 16.6 52.8 292./11.6
42 17.0 54.1 289./13.4
48 17.6 55.3 295./13.4
54 18.1 56.6 292./12.9
60 18.8 57.8 299./12.8
66 19.4 59.0 297./13.4
72 20.3 60.3 304./14.6
78 21.1 61.5 305./14.8
84 22.1 62.7 308./14.4
90 23.0 63.9 310./14.2
96 24.2 64.9 320./14.6
102 25.4 65.8 322./15.0
108 26.7 66.7 327./15.1
114 28.1 67.6 326./15.9
120 29.5 68.3 334./15.8
126 31.0 68.9 339./15.4

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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1792 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:33 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1793 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:34 pm

looking at the model trends, im not letting my guard down, even the canadian would give my area 50mph+ winds and heavy rain
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#1794 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:36 pm

I don't have a public graphic for the HWRF, but I thought I seen a 911mb storm very near where the GFDL has is it from the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)

#1795 Postby bdabye » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:40 pm

Bermuda signing in. Watching and waiting
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#1796 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:41 pm

I believe the waters off of Nova Scotia are far warmer than normal - warmer even than in 2003 when Juan hit.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1797 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:42 pm

FWIW the 12Z nogaps run looks very much like the CMC bringing Bill near 30/70 in 4 days and hitting Canada from the southwest thereafter.

The GFS representation of the ridge in 4 days is much stronger, with a less progressive pattern. Still waiting for the UKMET text guidance to see if it stays west.

All in all, more ridging means a nudge back to the left and a trend toward the UKMET solution.

Will be very interesting to see what the Euro does to the ridge in an hour...

MW
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Re:

#1798 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I believe the waters off of Nova Scotia are far warmer than normal - warmer even than in 2003 when Juan hit.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

Turn on SST once the loop loads. They may be warmer, but pretty darn cold. :)
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)

#1799 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:47 pm

Geez. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: Re:

#1800 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 17, 2009 12:54 pm

drezee wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Data just updated for 41041:

Latest pressure drop 7.0mb


That is the three hour pressure tendency, which is in the double digits now...

Anyone notice the 28+ ft seas at the buoy!!


thanks ... my mistake.

Latest pressure tendency -19.4 mb ( Falling Rapidly )
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