ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161709
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 09 20090816
170230 1648N 05836W 8426 01596 0129 +170 +057 100034 034 026 000 00
170300 1649N 05835W 8435 01590 0134 +170 +060 103035 035 026 000 03
170330 1648N 05834W 8426 01598 0130 +169 +062 103034 034 025 000 03
170400 1647N 05833W 8429 01592 0130 +170 +065 100034 034 025 000 00
170430 1646N 05832W 8430 01593 0127 +170 +067 097035 036 025 000 00
170500 1645N 05831W 8429 01591 0126 +170 +069 096036 036 025 000 00
170530 1644N 05829W 8430 01591 0126 +172 +071 096035 036 026 000 00
170600 1643N 05828W 8429 01591 0125 +175 +072 095035 035 026 000 03
170630 1642N 05827W 8429 01593 0123 +175 +074 096035 035 026 000 00
170700 1641N 05826W 8429 01591 0122 +175 +075 095035 035 026 000 00
170730 1640N 05825W 8434 01585 0121 +176 +077 095035 035 025 000 03
170800 1639N 05824W 8426 01593 0120 +177 +078 094035 035 025 000 00
170830 1638N 05823W 8429 01590 0121 +176 +080 094035 035 026 000 03
170900 1637N 05822W 8429 01589 0122 +174 +081 093036 036 024 000 03
170930 1636N 05821W 8430 01589 0122 +173 +083 091037 038 025 000 03
171000 1635N 05820W 8434 01585 0119 +175 +083 088036 037 024 000 03
171030 1634N 05819W 8429 01591 0119 +179 +084 086036 036 025 000 03
171100 1633N 05819W 8429 01592 0119 +177 +087 088035 035 024 000 03
171130 1631N 05818W 8429 01589 0118 +177 +090 088035 035 023 000 03
171200 1630N 05818W 8429 01589 0117 +178 +095 090037 037 025 000 00
$$
;

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

If you go to the larger scope on Hurricane IR Loop their are 2 things I am seeing.

About 70/25 their is a nice swirl going on and if you go south north of Ana part of her is moving up towards it.

Any chance of those two hooking up?

[perk]

It is quite possible we have had an relocation given its jumped recently, or if not then the whole thing is now on a solid WNW track. Either way its certainly some interesting developments.

A good 0.5 degrees above 15N now I'd guess, either that or the system has opened up on the southern side, both are possible...

I think you're right about a relocation under the new convection. That is quite routine for weaker systems.

[Sanibel]

Claudette formed from a wave that dissipated like Ana is doing in this spot. Who knows.

[KWT]

Thats the ULL your seeing there I suspect, the WV shows it much better. If that feature doesn't move out the way its going to shear Ana quite badly once it reaches about 65W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Still heading west which is a hood thing for Ana, keep an eye because if Ana can go north of the islands somehow then that will play a big role in the strength.

[The Eye Wall]

It's a pitiful looking thing, that's for sure.

[knotimpaired]

Thats the ULL your seeing there I suspect, the WV shows it much better. If that feature doesn't move out the way its going to shear Ana quite badly once it reaches about 65W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Still heading west which is a hood thing for Ana, keep an eye because if Ana can go north of the islands somehow then that will play a big role in the strength.

I am at 18.08 / 65.26

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161719
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 10 20090816
171230 1629N 05817W 8429 01588 0117 +177 +098 091037 037 024 000 03
171300 1627N 05816W 8429 01590 0116 +177 +101 089037 037 024 000 03
171330 1626N 05816W 8430 01588 0115 +177 +104 090037 038 024 000 03
171400 1625N 05815W 8435 01580 0116 +177 +106 090039 040 022 000 03
171430 1624N 05815W 8430 01585 0114 +175 +108 090040 040 023 000 00
171500 1622N 05814W 8430 01582 0115 +175 +110 090040 041 025 000 03
171530 1621N 05813W 8428 01589 0117 +172 +111 087038 039 024 000 03
171600 1620N 05813W 8428 01589 0115 +175 +111 087040 040 025 000 03
171630 1618N 05813W 8433 01583 0115 +174 +112 087039 040 027 000 03
171700 1617N 05812W 8429 01587 0114 +174 +112 086038 039 026 000 00
171730 1615N 05812W 8429 01584 0115 +170 +111 082039 041 026 000 00
171800 1614N 05812W 8428 01584 0115 +170 +111 079037 041 025 000 03
171830 1612N 05812W 8431 01583 0116 +167 +110 085039 040 025 000 03
171900 1610N 05812W 8424 01590 0113 +171 +108 082042 043 025 000 00
171930 1609N 05811W 8433 01579 0117 +163 +107 073039 041 027 000 00
172000 1607N 05811W 8437 01578 0117 +165 +105 078040 041 025 000 03
172030 1605N 05811W 8425 01587 0114 +169 +102 077039 041 026 000 03
172100 1604N 05811W 8438 01574 0115 +168 +100 075041 042 026 000 03
172130 1602N 05811W 8426 01585 0114 +167 +099 073040 040 026 000 03
172200 1600N 05810W 8433 01578 0113 +168 +099 072037 039 026 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

If you look at the close-ups its not bad if the center is under the new burst of convection. I'm still not totally convinced it has a closed circulation...but remember even Andrew at one point didn't really have a LLC...

Besides recon is finding winds around 40-43kts at FL thus far, probably enough to keep this as a TS...

[jinftl]

agree....even a remnant ana making it into the Gulf doesn't have hostile conditions awaiting her there.

Claudette formed from a wave that dissipated like Ana is doing in this spot. Who knows.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161729
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 11 20090816
172230 1559N 05810W 8424 01585 0118 +159 +099 069035 036 028 000 03
172300 1557N 05809W 8427 01583 0121 +152 +098 070032 035 029 000 00
172330 1556N 05809W 8433 01577 0110 +170 +095 085039 040 031 000 03
172400 1554N 05808W 8428 01580 0108 +172 +092 084039 040 031 000 03
172430 1553N 05808W 8442 01564 0106 +177 +091 084039 039 030 000 03
172500 1551N 05808W 8421 01583 0108 +170 +092 085038 040 033 000 03
172530 1549N 05808W 8435 01570 0109 +168 +094 089036 037 034 000 03
172600 1548N 05807W 8407 01595 0108 +168 +097 092032 036 032 004 00
172630 1546N 05807W 8442 01561 0103 +176 +097 080027 028 029 006 03
172700 1544N 05807W 8424 01581 0106 +175 +096 079026 027 026 000 03
172730 1543N 05807W 8432 01574 0103 +177 +096 083027 028 027 000 03
172800 1541N 05806W 8430 01575 0105 +174 +098 082026 027 027 000 03
172830 1540N 05806W 8429 01574 0103 +171 +099 082025 027 023 000 00
172900 1538N 05806W 8432 01569 0104 +168 +100 080022 023 024 001 00
172930 1536N 05806W 8429 01572 0105 +166 +099 071019 023 024 001 00
173000 1535N 05805W 8429 01572 0110 +158 +096 067018 020 023 003 00
173030 1533N 05805W 8433 01565 0104 +166 +093 072020 021 022 001 00
173100 1532N 05804W 8430 01570 0100 +171 +090 087018 018 018 000 00
173130 1530N 05804W 8423 01578 0099 +172 +089 087020 020 016 000 03
173200 1528N 05804W 8427 01573 0098 +173 +090 077019 019 011 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Still Ana is able to produce just enough convection to keep itself going, an outflow boundary just came out of the eastern cell just as Ana produced a new cell exactly west of the old one.

[jrpsuper123]

Air Force 08/16 17:22:30Z 1005.1mb (~29.68 inHg) 39kts (~44.8mph) 32kts (~36.8mph)

[Dionne]

Does anyone know what time we will see the results from the recon flight?

I believe they are en route ....some 200 miles ENE of Dominica at this time.

[KWT]

Recon is not that far from where the center of Ana was progged to be, but we shall see, next set should give a good indication where the LLC is, if its about of course!

[Sanibel]

A slight tweak and Ana passes over Hispaniola only to reform north of Cuba and hook up the west coast of Florida as an intensifying cyclone.


The 12z initial is too far south Ana has already jumped north of 15N.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161739
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 12 20090816
173230 1527N 05804W 8433 01567 0100 +174 +090 071017 018 017 000 03
173300 1525N 05803W 8432 01570 0099 +175 +092 066016 017 014 000 03
173330 1523N 05803W 8426 01574 0100 +174 +094 068013 014 017 000 03
173400 1522N 05802W 8430 01571 0097 +177 +096 059015 016 016 000 03
173430 1520N 05802W 8430 01569 0098 +175 +099 065013 014 014 000 00
173500 1519N 05801W 8430 01568 0096 +175 +101 070015 017 014 000 03
173530 1517N 05800W 8436 01562 0095 +175 +102 073011 011 011 000 03
173600 1516N 05800W 8429 01569 0099 +171 +104 069011 011 013 000 03
173630 1514N 05759W 8433 01566 0096 +174 +105 065013 016 008 000 00
173700 1513N 05758W 8424 01574 0100 +168 +106 063012 015 002 000 00
173730 1511N 05758W 8427 01571 0099 +168 +106 059012 013 007 000 00
173800 1510N 05757W 8433 01564 0099 +166 +107 069011 011 004 000 00
173830 1508N 05756W 8426 01570 0097 +167 +107 075009 011 003 002 00
173900 1507N 05756W 8429 01567 0094 +173 +107 080012 013 005 000 03
173930 1505N 05755W 8432 01565 0094 +175 +106 079011 012 010 000 00
174000 1503N 05755W 8426 01569 0097 +168 +106 085010 011 007 000 00
174030 1502N 05755W 8430 01568 0096 +170 +108 081007 009 010 000 03
174100 1500N 05755W 8429 01568 0098 +169 +109 074006 006 009 000 00
174130 1458N 05754W 8429 01566 0099 +168 +111 032003 005 010 000 03
174200 1457N 05754W 8429 01568 0099 +170 +113 347004 005 007 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 161749
AF300 0102A ANA HDOB 13 20090816
174230 1455N 05754W 8431 01572 0104 +166 +114 030004 004 007 000 03
174300 1454N 05753W 8433 01564 0101 +168 +115 042003 004 005 000 00
174330 1453N 05751W 8430 01569 0104 +165 +115 104002 003 008 000 00
174400 1451N 05750W 8429 01571 0103 +165 +115 198003 004 010 000 03
174430 1450N 05749W 8430 01569 0099 +171 +115 195006 007 006 000 00
174500 1449N 05748W 8429 01569 0099 +169 +114 188007 008 006 000 00
174530 1448N 05747W 8430 01568 0102 +164 +116 176009 009 008 000 03
174600 1447N 05745W 8429 01567 0102 +160 +116 176008 009 009 000 00
174630 1446N 05744W 8430 01567 0102 +160 +116 176006 007 008 000 03
174700 1444N 05743W 8429 01569 0102 +164 +115 178005 006 007 000 00
174730 1443N 05742W 8432 01564 0103 +160 +115 164004 004 010 000 00
174800 1442N 05741W 8428 01571 0102 +160 +115 186003 003 010 000 00
174830 1441N 05740W 8430 01566 0103 +160 +115 171003 003 012 000 03
174900 1439N 05739W 8429 01571 0106 +160 +115 184004 004 010 000 00
174930 1438N 05737W 8430 01568 0101 +164 +115 205004 004 010 000 03
175000 1437N 05736W 8428 01571 0099 +171 +115 215004 004 011 000 03
175030 1435N 05735W 8429 01570 0099 +170 +115 210004 005 014 000 03
175100 1434N 05734W 8429 01573 0101 +170 +116 182006 006 016 000 00
175130 1433N 05733W 8431 01570 0103 +166 +117 178007 007 015 000 00
175200 1432N 05732W 8429 01572 0103 +168 +118 197006 008 014 000 00
$$
;

Is there even a center?

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 161750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042009
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 29 deg 08 min N
085 deg 05 min W
C. 925 mb 753 m
D. 57 kt
E. 094 deg 12 nm
F. 145 deg 45 kt
G. 084 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 22 C / 764 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 16:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
SFC CNTR 276 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 161750
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042009
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 29 deg 08 min N
085 deg 05 min W
C. 925 mb 753 m
D. 57 kt
E. 094 deg 12 nm
F. 145 deg 45 kt
G. 084 deg 55 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 22 C / 764 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 16:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
SFC CNTR 276 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

That is for Claudette.