ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[storms NC]

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

It maybe me but I see a W-NW movement

there is a direct correlation between movement and posters location

This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have two homes. One in Fl and the other here in NC. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am. Been here for 3 weeks

[wxman57]

You're missing the low clouds moving SW just to the NW of the latest convection near 30.5/74 there wxman57. Check this link and speed up the animation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I can make my own loops here and zoom in, but I see low clouds moving to the WNW in that area. Perhaps a bit of an outflow boundary coming from the small area of convection. There's another circular outflow boundary coming from a dissipated storm near 30.2N/75.3W.

I've always said that if two meteorologists (and many others) can't agree on where an LLC is, then it's pretty weak or it may not be there at all. Fred may be on his death bed, but there's a faint, weak pulse evident and a narrow window for regeneration. The current westerly wind shear isn't helping. But it may die down in 12-18 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

[/quote]

This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have tow homes. One on Fl and the other here in Fl. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am.[/quote]

Congrats on the Grand Daughter!!!

[storms NC]

Thanks Dean. We go back a long way from TWC days. LOLOLOLOLOLOL

[Blown Away]

This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have two homes. One in Fl and the other here in NC. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am. Been here for 3 weeks

I love your posts, you have to be able to take a little innocent ribbing. Congrats on the grandaughter!

[storms NC]

I think you will see it blow up some more when it hits the gulf stream. The waters are very warm. But still don't see a Hurricane to come out of it unless it is in his back pocket where he put it when he was a cat 3 .LOLOLOLOL

[Bocadude85]

This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have two homes. One in Fl and the other here in NC. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am. Been here for 3 weeks

I love your posts, you have to be able to take a little innocent ribbing. Congrats on the grandaughter!

Lol this could end up by Ft. Myers... lol you never know.

[jlauderdal]

there is a direct correlation between movement and posters location [/quote]

This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have two homes. One in Fl and the other here in NC. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am. Been here for 3 weeks[/quote]

congrats on your grandaughter, may she be healthy wealthy and alot wiser than me. Notice the little smily face after my original post and be happy.

[jlauderdal]

You're missing the low clouds moving SW just to the NW of the latest convection near 30.5/74 there wxman57. Check this link and speed up the animation.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I can make my own loops here and zoom in, but I see low clouds moving to the WNW in that area. Perhaps a bit of an outflow boundary coming from the small area of convection. There's another circular outflow boundary coming from a dissipated storm near 30.2N/75.3W.

I've always said that if two meteorologists (and many others) can't agree on where an LLC is, then it's pretty weak or it may not be there at all. Fred may be on his death bed, but there's a faint, weak pulse evident and a narrow window for regeneration. The current westerly wind shear isn't helping. But it may die down in 12-18 hours.

its like a coach that says he has two quarterbacks, you got two you have nothing

[Blown Away]

So do we get a "Code Yellow" back at 2pm?? I say yes, but I don't see much happening w/ good old Fred but some squally weather for N/FL through Carolinas.

[tolakram]

Convection is starting to look 'ex-Fred like again'. Tops warming a bit, looking to be sheared away.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is starting to look 'ex-Fred like again'. Tops warming a bit, looking to be sheared away.

right but no where near like it was..

there is still about 10kts of mid shear but that is nearly gone now .. only a little piece of it left.

mid level shear.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Admittedly the inflow, the big picture anyway, is starting to look good. Fred has fooled me before though. Outflow appears decent in all but the NW quadrant as well.

But this is Fred we're talking about.

I'd like to see the low clouds south of Fred start making a northerly move before I'm convinced anything is going on.

[tolakram]

Here's that NASA build your own sat pic that was posted earlier. I shifted it a bit west and south.

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&map=latlon

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is starting to look 'ex-Fred like again'. Tops warming a bit, looking to be sheared away.

right but no where near like it was..

there is still about 10kts of mid shear but that is nearly gone now .. only a little piece of it left.

mid level shear.

New one 15z mid shear is almost gone now..

[tolakram]

You can see what appears to be banding in that loop, but the clouds are still moving W/NW instead of flowing into the so called circulation.

Using Irfanview free image viewer and editor, if anyone wondered.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more like a cusp than a LLC. Having trouble closing off the center with northerly and NW winds

[deltadog03]

Hell, lets all throw darts..hahah my turn...

[ozonepete]

"This is why I hate to post. You don't know if I am in NC or Fl at this time.
And just so you might know I am in LeHigh. Do you Know where that is? Just say it would have to jump over land to get to me. I will be on my way back to NC. I have two homes. One in Fl and the other here in NC. I came to see my gran Daughter who was just born. Have a flight in Am. Been here for 3 weeks"

Congrats on your grandaughter!

[ozonepete]

So do we get a "Code Yellow" back at 2pm?? I say yes, but I don't see much happening w/ good old Fred but some squally weather for N/FL through Carolinas.

The NHC must be more sick of this than wxman57! They're probably really gun-shy of "reviving" Fred.