ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[The Eye Wall]

His eye is opening I think. Wake up sleepy head! I suspect once Bill has a well established eye, he'll go from a Cat. 1 to 3 or 4 fairly rapidly. I'm sniffing R.I.

[Hurricaneman]

it seems like the model that is closest to being nearest to the speed of Bill is the ukmet

[Hurricaneman]

I dont think thats an eye as much as its a dry spot

[ExBailbonds]

I dont think thats an eye as much as its a dry spot

Bingo I was just about to post the the same thing

[somethingfunny]

The center appears to be directly underneath the deepest convection. That's where the eye will eventually appear. Visibles will tell the tale tomorrow morning.

[Hurricaneman]

even so, Bill is booking it right now north of due west

[The Eye Wall]

I dont think thats an eye as much as its a dry spot

Bingo I was just about to post the the same thing

My eyes are tired! (or are they just old, at 23?!?!)

[ExBailbonds]

I dont think thats an eye as much as its a dry spot

Bingo I was just about to post the the same thing

My eyes are tired! (or are they just old, at 23?!?!)

Na you just got excited looking for an eye to appear your eyes are fine. lol

[SouthFloridawx]

[floridasun78]

we need to see if high strong or we see trough weak it up high a bit other thing we need watch is how fast bill move because more faster he move weakness might not affect it so next few days we know more

[floridasun78]

plane that put weather data on model have not gone out to bill yet but as soon it do we will have better model run to watch so that could happen next few days maybe tue

[neospaceblue]

We have the first hurricane of the season
AL, 03, 2009081706, , BEST, 0, 136N, 434W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 120, 60, 90, 1008, 175, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BILL, D,
AL, 03, 2009081706, , BEST, 0, 136N, 434W, 65, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 45, 25, 45, 1008, 175, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BILL, D,

[shah8]

I think we will have 100% confidence in track by late tomorrow.

[TheEuropean]

I think we will have 100% confidence in track by late tomorrow.

Hi, what is "100% confidence"? I think we will never have 100% confidence in a track of a tropical system.

[caribepr]

100 percent? Don't think I've ever heard that one...

(MJ looks up at the European...*clink*)

[shah8]

Heh, I know...

I was thinking about the recurve. Any hanky panky that makes it not recurve, we should know about by tomorrow. Is that better?

[Evil Jeremy]

Bill is pretty much going to be at its next forecast point ahead of schedule and south of the actual point. These are going to be an interesting next couple of forecasts.

[Derek Ortt]

the BT position is highly suspect

look at the sat image on the previous page. It looks like the eye is east of 43W 15 minutes AFTER BT time. So either this moved east at 100 mph in those 15 minutes, or the BT position is well off

[caribepr]

Is Bill actually a hurricane now? Does the BT position being off make it look like what it looks like to me (who knows a little about a lot but not much more). that this isn't going north as much as predicted?

[Derek Ortt]

The BT is too fast. The SSD position is more in line with reality and it is ~35NM to the east

NHC has this moving about 6KT too fast. However, even with the SSD position, this is moving at about 18KT