ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

#1661 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:35 am

2009 Storms
All
   
Active
   
Year

Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hem.
Season: 10
91S.INVEST

The entire northern hemisphere is dead at the moment.

Aric Dunn · #1662 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:39 am

latest surface analysis ..
1017 Low at 30N and about 73 - 74 W

#1663 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:45 am

If that a "low pressure," then it has serious pressure problem!!! :lol:

#1664 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:46 am

Almost looks like there's another upper level feature near Fred.

I think we're seeing another temporary blow up.

Aric Dunn · #1665 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:48 am

HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: If that a "low pressure," then it has serious pressure problem!!!

hehe.. that sounds funny.. lol

but its all about background pressure. i had seen TD's with 1016mb before..

jaxfladude · #1666 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:50 am

WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!
WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!
WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!

storms NC · #1667 Postby **storms NC** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:50 am

Well If it wasn't to late in the season I would say when the Pacific slows down the
Atlantic picks up. But maybe to late now.

See what this thing will do this X fred. Don't think it would be more than a rain maker to where ever it goes. More like SC-NC line then pushed back out to sea.

Aric Dunn · #1668 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:50 am

tolakram wrote:Almost looks like there's another upper level feature near Fred.

I think we're seeing another temporary blow up.

its possible .. but that little feature is one of the reason the shear is dropping fast and a small upper ridge is developing.
as that feature drops south a upper high will build in north of it.

#1669 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:50 am

Air Force Met wrote:
I would put the center of the broad low near 30/74. There is low level inflow headed ENE at 29/74. I would not call it way NW of the convection as the westerly inflow is under the cirrus shield. Looks like an elongated e-w low with the eastern part of the low being near the convection.

But I also see low cloud elements moving WNW well to the NW of the convection. Could be a very large, weak, elliptical LLC about 150 miles across with the the southeast lobe near 30N/74.5W.

jaxfladude · #1670 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:51 am

HURAKAN wrote:
Code: Select all
2009 Storms All Active Year Atlantic East Pacific Central Pacific West Pacific Indian Ocean Southern Hem. Season: 10 91S.INVEST

The entire northern hemisphere is dead at the moment.

Good!!!

Emmett_Brown · #1671 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:51 am

tolakram wrote:Almost looks like there's another upper level feature near Fred.

I think we're seeing another temporary blow up.

This small ULL may be what helps Fred to develop. Appears to be aiding outflow, and sheltering him from shear.

Aric Dunn · #1672 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:51 am

jaxfladude wrote::uarrow:
WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!
WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!
WE WANT(Tropical Cyclones and Pesky Invest)RAID!

hehe .. i want to go play in the rain .. lol and fly a kite..

Emmett_Brown · #1673 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: If that a "low pressure," then it has serious pressure problem!!!

hehe.. that sounds funny.. lol

but its all about background pressure. i had seen TD's with 1016mb before..

If memory serves, Andrew was a 1016 mb TS just before he exploded (under great conditions)

#1674 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:but its all about background pressure. i had seen TD's with 1016mb before..

I know. I remember Josephine in 2002 had a very high pressure as a depression. But I was just making fun of the fact that the barrier between low and high pressure is 1013.25 mb. To have a low at 1017 mb is kind of ironic!!!

Josephine 2002:
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...33.5 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB.

Danny 2003:
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...31.5 N... 54.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1015 MB.

Aric Dunn · #1675 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:54 am

storms NC wrote:Well If it wasn't to late in the season I would say when the Pacific slows down the
Atlantic picks up. But maybe to late now.

See what this thing will do this X fred. Don't think it would be more than a rain maker to where ever it goes. More like SC-NC line then pushed back out to sea.

you do know we just past the peak of the season 9 days ago right

#1676 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:55 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:If memory serves, Andrew was a 1016 mb TS just before he exploded (under great conditions)

In the best track it appears as 1015 mb,

1200 21.7 60.7 1015 40 " "

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

Emmett_Brown · #1677 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 9:57 am

Still maintaining cold tops:

ronjon · #1678 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:01 am

I'm now starting to wonder if the broad center will tighten up somewhere under the deep convection - shear is practically non-existent and SSTs increase as the system moves west.

YouTube · #1679 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:04 am

It looks like it has about 48-60 hours tops to get going before very strong northerly shear comes in. Of course, it depends too on where Zombie Fred is. A lot can happen in this time frame, do not kid yourselves in to thinking it does not have time to ramp up. We should all know better than that, not saying this will or has to, but it does have time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Aric Dunn · #1680 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 21, 2009 10:08 am

For some reason I see a little kid with a on and off switch hiding behind something pointing his little finger and laughing at us, as he turns Fred on and off.. lol :double:

ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

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