ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Emmett_Brown]

The shear has really dropped off as of 12z:

[Air Force Met]

There's no evidence of a surface circulation center in the surface obs around what's left of Fred. Pressures near the western edge of the convection are about 1019mb.

That said, the GFS does indicate an upper-level ridge briefly building over Fred's remnants tonight and tomorrow morning. I can see some signs that shear is already beginning to relax over the area of storms. If the convection can persist, then it may be able to regenerate a surface circulation later today or tonight. But with a deep trof to its east and a strengthening ridge over the Gulf, wind shear should increase quite significantly across the SW Atlantic by Wednesday morning. Anything there would be ripped apart.

There's evidence in the morning vis. It might not be at the sfc (although it looks like it would be)...but there is certainly a LLC in the morning HR vis loop.

[Blown Away]

I don't know if it is the convection expanding but it looks like ex Fred is moving WSW??

[PTrackerLA]

Fred has another life, looks pretty impressive this morning. A stall could make things very interesting.

[BigA]

A southwest motion looks like it will take Fred into some pretty favorable condititions.

The question is- can the convection sustain?

[OuterBanker]

Geeze, Fred has died and come back to life more than any character on the Guiding Light in it's 72 year history.

Too bad Fred wasn't on the Guiding Light because it would still be on the air.

Will Fred just die?

Will Fred grow up to be a hurricane?

Will Fred haunt Florida until the end of the season?

Stay tuned for "As the Storm Turns"

[jpigott]

cloud tops look to be warming a little . . . let's see if ex-Fred can maintain the convection through the day

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[emeraldislencguy]

what are the odds that Fred could become a tropical storm or hurricane again

[wxman57]

There's no evidence of a surface circulation center in the surface obs around what's left of Fred. Pressures near the western edge of the convection are about 1019mb.

That said, the GFS does indicate an upper-level ridge briefly building over Fred's remnants tonight and tomorrow morning. I can see some signs that shear is already beginning to relax over the area of storms. If the convection can persist, then it may be able to regenerate a surface circulation later today or tonight. But with a deep trof to its east and a strengthening ridge over the Gulf, wind shear should increase quite significantly across the SW Atlantic by Wednesday morning. Anything there would be ripped apart.

There's evidence in the morning vis. It might not be at the sfc (although it looks like it would be)...but there is certainly a LLC in the morning HR vis loop.

I can't see much of anything on the visible loop. Do you mean way NW of the convection by 30.8N/75W? There's sort of a broad open swirl there. I can see low clouds moving ENE-E along 30N (west of the convection) from 76W-74W. A report nearby had 1017.5mb pressure. Can't see anything to indicate an LLC near the convection, however.

Here's a GARP plot from 13Z to show the observation near where I see some evidence of low clouds circling. Yellow arrows indicate low cloud movement

[Air Force Met]

I can't see much of anything on the visible loop. Do you mean way NW of the convection by 30.8N/75W? There's sort of a broad open swirl there. I can see low clouds moving ENE-E along 30N (west of the convection) from 76W-74W. A report nearby had 1017.5mb pressure. Can't see anything to indicate an LLC near the convection, however.

I would put the center of the broad low near 30/74. There is low level inflow headed ENE at 29/74. I would not call it way NW of the convection as the westerly inflow is under the cirrus shield. Looks like an elongated e-w low with the eastern part of the low being near the convection.

The pressures are high...but they are about 4 MB lower in the area the the pressures around them. Wouldn't be the highest pressures ever observed on a TD (if it were to get better formed...not saying it is now).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&map=latlon

[Aric Dunn]

There's no evidence of a surface circulation center in the surface obs around what's left of Fred. Pressures near the western edge of the convection are about 1019mb.

That said, the GFS does indicate an upper-level ridge briefly building over Fred's remnants tonight and tomorrow morning. I can see some signs that shear is already beginning to relax over the area of storms. If the convection can persist, then it may be able to regenerate a surface circulation later today or tonight. But with a deep trof to its east and a strengthening ridge over the Gulf, wind shear should increase quite significantly across the SW Atlantic by Wednesday morning. Anything there would be ripped apart.

There's evidence in the morning vis. It might not be at the sfc (although it looks like it would be)...but there is certainly a LLC in the morning HR vis loop.

I can't see much of anything on the visible loop. Do you mean way NW of the convection by 30.8N/75W? There's sort of a broad open swirl there. I can see low clouds moving ENE-E along 30N (west of the convection) from 76W-74W. A report nearby had 1017.5mb pressure. Can't see anything to indicate an LLC near the convection, however.

Here's a GARP plot from 13Z to show the observation near where I see some evidence of low clouds circling. Yellow arrows indicate low cloud movement

ummmm... your cross hairs are quite off there buddy...

[storms NC]

I don't know if it is the convection expanding but it looks like ex Fred is moving WSW??

It is the convection you see moving. It is still moving W-NW
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

what are the odds that Fred could become a tropical storm or hurricane again

I'd say a TS @ 10%
Hurricane @ 1%

[tolakram]

I would put the center of the broad low near 30/74. There is low level inflow headed ENE at 29/74. I would not call it way NW of the convection as the westerly inflow is under the cirrus shield. Looks like an elongated e-w low with the eastern part of the low being near the convection.

The pressures are high...but they are about 4 MB lower in the area the the pressures around them. Wouldn't be the highest pressures ever observed on a TD (if it were to get better formed...not saying it is now).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&map=latlon

I can see the circulation in that loop, and it looks to be very close to where the latest convection is overtopping. I think (which doesn't mean much) I see clouds heading south just west of that location. I wouldn't call it well defined, but something looks to be happening.

Fred, the punk, just won't quit.

[Aric Dunn]

I can't see much of anything on the visible loop. Do you mean way NW of the convection by 30.8N/75W? There's sort of a broad open swirl there. I can see low clouds moving ENE-E along 30N (west of the convection) from 76W-74W. A report nearby had 1017.5mb pressure. Can't see anything to indicate an LLC near the convection, however.

I would put the center of the broad low near 30/74. There is low level inflow headed ENE at 29/74. I would not call it way NW of the convection as the westerly inflow is under the cirrus shield. Looks like an elongated e-w low with the eastern part of the low being near the convection.

The pressures are high...but they are about 4 MB lower in the area the the pressures around them. Wouldn't be the highest pressures ever observed on a TD (if it were to get better formed...not saying it is now).

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&map=latlon

Yeah I agree, My earlier estimate of 30.4 73 is in line with yours. Its clearly elongated but that is typical of systems under going center relocation which is likely what will happen with the deeper convection.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the low is trying to consolidate at the NW area of the convective blob for lack of a better word. If that convection keeps ongoing in that area it could close off and deepen IMO with shear relaxing and very warm SST's I do not see anything holdiing it back now.

[tolakram]

How about a picture from that loop.

[Dean4Storms]

How about a picture from that loop.

Note that new convection popping just above the number 30 in that pic, convection looks to be trying to sustain this time!

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty straight forward.. center approximately 30.24° N 73.80°

[Aric Dunn]

How about a picture from that loop.

Note that new convection popping just above the number 30 in that pic, convection looks to be trying to sustain this time!

hehe.. you beat me to it..

your Arrows are better than my ugly lines