UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 020100 UTC
Lat : 11:06:20 N Lon : 143:27:36 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 931.0mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 7.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.0mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km
Center Temp : +18.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
The Raw T# supports an intensity of 160 kt - on its way there? Or will it weaken before reaching ultimate potential?
WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145277
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)
Guam dodged a big bullet.But big waves are crashing against the island shores and bands will move thru causing gusts to TS force with heavy rains.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 033200 UTC
Lat : 11:25:29 N Lon : 143:11:20 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 925.7mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 7.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.9mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km
Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 033200 UTC
Lat : 11:25:29 N Lon : 143:11:20 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 925.7mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 7.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.9mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km
Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes
-
oaba09
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1496
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
- Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
- Contact:
Wow.....3 possible scenarios that the models are giving........Talk about being unpredictable...
*******************
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
241956Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (25 KNOTS IN
06 HOURS) WITH A CONTRACTING EYE (CURRENTLY 12 NM) WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS.
B. TY 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
AT 27N 160E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES WITH NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO AND GFDN TURNING
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE JGSM AND WBAR
TRACK TY 26W NORTHWESTWARD. TC-LAPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED
FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT 24/00Z TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT
24/12Z AND RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM AT 15N, WELL-SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
(20N). THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM/WBAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED. THE FORECAST FAVORS A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BEGINNING NEAR TAU 120 WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TY 26W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 20N AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF SOLUTION
TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AND IS ERRATIC. ALL
THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 22N WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A RE-CURVE AROUND 20N WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 120.//
NNNN
*******************
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
241956Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (25 KNOTS IN
06 HOURS) WITH A CONTRACTING EYE (CURRENTLY 12 NM) WITH A BANDING
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS.
B. TY 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
AT 27N 160E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES WITH NOGAPS, GFS, UKMO AND GFDN TURNING
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE JGSM AND WBAR
TRACK TY 26W NORTHWESTWARD. TC-LAPS AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED
FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT 24/00Z TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT
24/12Z AND RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM AT 15N, WELL-SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
(20N). THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM/WBAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
POOR AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED. THE FORECAST FAVORS A RE-CURVATURE
SCENARIO BEGINNING NEAR TAU 120 WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT TY 26W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 20N AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF SOLUTION
TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AND IS ERRATIC. ALL
THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 22N WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A RE-CURVE AROUND 20N WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 120.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 040100 UTC
Lat : 11:29:36 N Lon : 143:08:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 923.1mb/122.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 7.0 7.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.9mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km
Center Temp : +19.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 040100 UTC
Lat : 11:29:36 N Lon : 143:08:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 923.1mb/122.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 7.0 7.6
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.9mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km
Center Temp : +19.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 051600 UTC
Lat : 11:40:05 N Lon : 143:00:22 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 905.0mb/137.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.7 7.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.8mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km
Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 051600 UTC
Lat : 11:40:05 N Lon : 143:00:22 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 905.0mb/137.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.7 7.8
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.8mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km
Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 November 2009
<Analyses at 25/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N11°10'(11.2°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 26/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 25 November 2009
<Analyses at 25/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N11°10'(11.2°)
E143°25'(143.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 26/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)
0 likes
-
wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Yeah, this thing just smashed the Dvorak constraints. Ring of -75C cloud tops encircling an eye that continues to warm - something that would support at least a T7.5. (And, as the latest CIMSS Dvorak indicates, closing in on a T8.0.)
JTWC will probably go with something around 125-135 kt next advisory, but I'm pretty sure this is a Cat 5 right now.
Edit: Actually, the ring of cloud tops is -80C, read the scale wrong. That's truly amazing. Although it may be beginning an ERC right now. Still, what a powerhouse.
JTWC will probably go with something around 125-135 kt next advisory, but I'm pretty sure this is a Cat 5 right now.
Edit: Actually, the ring of cloud tops is -80C, read the scale wrong. That's truly amazing. Although it may be beginning an ERC right now. Still, what a powerhouse.
0 likes
Re: WPAC : TYPHOON NIDA (26W)
Code: Select all
26W NIDA 091125 0600 11.6N 143.0E WPAC 125 929
2009NOV25 053200 7.1 898.0/ +3.8 /143.0 7.1 7.7 7.8
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest