#172 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:35 pm
Felicia is now a category 4 hurricane
WTPZ23 KNHC 060234
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2009
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 130.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
329
WTPZ43 KNHC 060253
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE. JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION. FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS
NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN
140W-156W. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER 72 HR...THE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR
FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER. IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA
MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 72 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W 120 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W 120 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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