EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Andrew92]

I was just thinking the same thing HurricaneRobert and you beat me to it by two minutes! I think Carlos could easily become a category 3 or 4 hurricane as it marches out over the open Pacific waters.

Let's just hope it stays south of the Hawaiian Islands. I am personally hoping especially for Kauai's sake as I have friends who live on that island and because they have been the ones that get hit.

-Andrew92

[MGC]

Looks to me that Carlos has been RI this afternoon. If this trend continues looks like a easy shot at Cat-3. Check out the excellent outflow....MGC

[cycloneye]

Will Carlos do the same as Flossie did in 2007?



Or like what Cosme did?

[CrazyC83]

I think this could easily get to Category 4 where it is.

12/0000 UTC 10.5N 118.4W T4.5/4.5 CARLOS -- East Pacific

[Category 5]

Pinhole eye, look out, that intensity forecast might be considerably raised at this rate.

[Andrew92]

Don't forget about Emilia from 1994 either.



I seriously do wonder, with this being an El Nino year, what the chances are of Carlos growing as strong as Emilia.

-Andrew92

[Derek Ortt]

Don't forget about Emilia from 1994 either.



I seriously do wonder, with this being an El Nino year, what the chances are of Carlos growing as strong as Emilia.

-Andrew92

wouldn't surprise me. However, strong storms are not only el ninoish. In fact, where this one formed is more of a la nina type threat to Hawaii (Dora, 1999, Daniel 2000, Flossie 2007). Not saying we have a la nina as we clearly have el nino... just not a very strong one. In a classic el nino, we see more storms forming out near 130W

[cycloneye]

Small pinhole eye.Stadium effect.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-vis.html

Impressive. Higher tops continue to build and encircle the center.

[cycloneye]

3z Advisory=Forecast has major hurricane

851
WTPZ24 KNHC 120231
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 119.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 119.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

637
WTPZ34 KNHC 120233
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1045 MILES...1685 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND CARLOS COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 119.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING. A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT.

CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 72
HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
AND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

CARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a small eye that is sharper with each passing hour.

Is there a reason why the GFS is still initializing Carlos as a open wave (or sometimes not even there at all) but continuing to show the remnants of TS Blanca as a tropical storm?

there is a very good reason for that. it is modeling 101. If there is no real data to initialize a forecast with, the new analysis is basically the previous 6 hour forecast

Why is there no new real data for it? It's been like this for several days now. The HWRF is especially horrible.

Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year. I would say the chance at it becoming a major is good. I estimate the strength of it lies around 75-80 knots currently.

[Iune]

Looks like a small eye that is sharper with each passing hour.

Is there a reason why the GFS is still initializing Carlos as a open wave (or sometimes not even there at all) but continuing to show the remnants of TS Blanca as a tropical storm?

there is a very good reason for that. it is modeling 101. If there is no real data to initialize a forecast with, the new analysis is basically the previous 6 hour forecast

Why is there no new real data for it? It's been like this for several days now. The HWRF is especially horrible.

Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year. I would say the chance at it becoming a major is good. I estimate the strength of it lies around 75-80 knots currently.

Typhoon Kujira in May had JTWC winds of 115 or 120 knots.

[Derek Ortt]

Looks like a small eye that is sharper with each passing hour.

Is there a reason why the GFS is still initializing Carlos as a open wave (or sometimes not even there at all) but continuing to show the remnants of TS Blanca as a tropical storm?

there is a very good reason for that. it is modeling 101. If there is no real data to initialize a forecast with, the new analysis is basically the previous 6 hour forecast

Why is there no new real data for it? It's been like this for several days now. The HWRF is especially horrible.

Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year. I would say the chance at it becoming a major is good. I estimate the strength of it lies around 75-80 knots currently.

How can you get data over the open ocean? What observing stations are there? Maybe when this gets near Hawaii, the G-IV will fly. But until then... little to no data

[RL3AO]

Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year.

Typhoon Kujira in May had JTWC winds of 115 or 120 knots.

Note the enlarged text.

[RattleMan]

Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year. I would say the chance at it becoming a major is good. I estimate the strength of it lies around 75-80 knots currently.

Typhoon Kujira in May had JTWC winds of 115 or 120 knots.

"Hurricane Carlos is now the strongest tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere so far this year."

Thus, it is the strongest.

[Derek Ortt]

we went slightly stronger at 80KT/95 mph

[wxmann_91]

How can you get data over the open ocean? What observing stations are there? Maybe when this gets near Hawaii, the G-IV will fly. But until then... little to no data

Satellite data... buoy observations.

[HURAKAN]

How can you get data over the open ocean? What observing stations are there? Maybe when this gets near Hawaii, the G-IV will fly. But until then... little to no data

Satellite data... buoy observations.

There are no buoys close to Carlos and satellite data is a guesstimate work.

[Macrocane]

Carlos appearence is not so good as a few hours ago, cloud tops have warmed, the eye is "closed" again and it seems like a little dry air could be affecting it. Conditions still look good and I think that it will overcome those little problems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

850 mb GFS vorticity/winds animation- weakens and passes South of the United States.

Shear would be weak where prog'd remnant of Carlos is in 1 week, South of HI in 1 week.