GOM: INVEST 90L

[Rainband]

never mind he said "are we looking at the seasons first named storm" lol oops

[Rainband]

abcactionnews chief met

[Aric Dunn]

abcactionnews chief met

lol
well i mean its still possible .. its just a complex set up its hard to tell what going to take place till it finally does.

[wxman57]

I've been analyzing surface charts since before you were born, most likely. I just don't see any evidence of a circulation anywhere between the DR and Florida, and certainly not where the invest was initialized. I think the area to watch will be farther west.

Quite a few surface obs in the area - there is no "weak surface low". I see straight SE flow from the DR to southern FL. Any circulation is aloft in the mid levels.

i would suggest re examining that data and comparing with other tools, remember local effects around cuba i.e sea breezes could be giving the appearance of no surface feature, but does not say in anyway whats so ever that there is "no" low.. first off the weak low (determined by the NHC) is just that weak and local effects could easily and have many times in the past hidden the evidence with surface observations alone, thats when satellite and other analysis comes in.

also why would you look from DR with such a small weak circ DR would be pointless..
but hey will see ...

[Aric Dunn]

I've been analyzing surface charts since before you were born, most likely. I just don't see any evidence of a circulation anywhere between the DR and Florida, and certainly not where the invest was initialized. I think the area to watch will be farther west.

Quite a few surface obs in the area - there is no "weak surface low". I see straight SE flow from the DR to southern FL. Any circulation is aloft in the mid levels.

i would suggest re examining that data and comparing with other tools, remember local effects around cuba i.e sea breezes could be giving the appearance of no surface feature, but does not say in anyway whats so ever that there is "no" low.. first off the weak low (determined by the NHC) is just that weak and local effects could easily and have many times in the past hidden the evidence with surface observations alone, thats when satellite and other analysis comes in.

also why would you look from DR with such a small weak circ DR would be pointless..
but hey will see ...

i agree the area to watch is farther west.. was not debating that ..

[Category 5]

I've been analyzing surface charts since before you were born, most likely. I just don't see any evidence of a circulation anywhere between the DR and Florida, and certainly not where the invest was initialized. I think the area to watch will be farther west.

Quite a few surface obs in the area - there is no "weak surface low". I see straight SE flow from the DR to southern FL. Any circulation is aloft in the mid levels.

i would suggest re examining that data and comparing with other tools, remember local effects around cuba i.e sea breezes could be giving the appearance of no surface feature, but does not say in anyway whats so ever that there is "no" low.. first off the weak low (determined by the NHC) is just that weak and local effects could easily and have many times in the past hidden the evidence with surface observations alone, thats when satellite and other analysis comes in.

also why would you look from DR with such a small weak circ DR would be pointless..
but hey will see ...

I Don't either, the charts are showing basically no convergence at the surface. Plenty of divergence aloft, but nothing at the surface.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with Wxman -- no surface low quite yet, just a mid-level spin that is getting sheared at the moment. My opinion is that it does not make it past invest status, neither does the GOM low. I actually don't think it should even be an invest yet.

What is going on over Florida is more of a winter-time trough setup than tropical. Freeze warnings for all of the Northeastern part of the CONUS -- 50s reported in parts of Mississippi and Alabama this morning..not quite hurricane season yet.

The system will likely be a rain event for the Bahamas and Florida but the wind threat from this system is quite low.

[jaxfladude]

So is the latest thinking the same, some heavy and some much needed rain and some wind?

[gatorcane]

So is the latest thinking the same, some heavy and some much needed rain and some wind?

Yes and Yes but no tropical storm ana from this...(see my disclaimer above).

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with Wxman -- no surface low quite yet, just a mid-level spin that is getting sheared at the moment. My opinion is that it does not make it past invest status, neither does the GOM low. I actually don't think it should even be an invest yet.

What is going on over Florida is more of a winter-time trough setup than tropical. Freeze warnings for all of the Northeastern part of the CONUS -- 50s reported in parts of Mississippi and Alabama this morning..not quite hurricane season yet.

The system will likely be a rain event for the Bahamas and Florida but the wind threat from this system is quite low.

Well I agree with the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

[srainhoutx]

I've been analyzing surface charts since before you were born, most likely. I just don't see any evidence of a circulation anywhere between the DR and Florida, and certainly not where the invest was initialized. I think the area to watch will be farther west.

Quite a few surface obs in the area - there is no "weak surface low". I see straight SE flow from the DR to southern FL. Any circulation is aloft in the mid levels.

i would suggest re examining that data and comparing with other tools, remember local effects around cuba i.e sea breezes could be giving the appearance of no surface feature, but does not say in anyway whats so ever that there is "no" low.. first off the weak low (determined by the NHC) is just that weak and local effects could easily and have many times in the past hidden the evidence with surface observations alone, thats when satellite and other analysis comes in.

also why would you look from DR with such a small weak circ DR would be pointless..
but hey will see ...

Working this weekend wxman57? What a waste on a holiday weekend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well- many here know that I usually think that almost anything with
a swirl and convection will develop- but that said- in this
case:

90L off the SE coast of FL is really weak and convection is weak-
and there is not much of a well-defined low IMO
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Also, the low in the SE Gulf, the one I would think has much better
convection and circulation, and hence much more
likely to develop compared to the bahama low, is still extratropical, and it is about to
make landfall on the SW Coast of FL, and then accelerate
NE, which would kill off any development.

While Pressure Gradient winds may produce gusts to Gale Force/Tropical
Storm Force, as advertised by the National Weather Service-
this is, IMO, an EXTRA-tropical event.

There is really COLD air for this time of year advecting on the entire
West and Northwest side of the Gulf low, and unless the low
persists- we most likely have an extratropical system only.
I'm much less confident about development than I was 24 hrs ago.

But I AM NOT an expert. So read the expert stuff first.

But hey- SOUTH FL is getting torrential rain:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no
I still think that many areas will get very heavy flooding rains....just without the
sub/tropical storm

[boca]

They are predicting rain for S FL for the next 24hrs.The back edge of this rain is 50 miles west of me. The low over the Gulf looks like it will sweep thru Florida and continue NE bound, at least my thinking.I guess that high will block this system once in the Atlantic and push it west bound per NWS. I don't see that happening.

[jlauderdal]

One of the local channels said that the two lows would move towards each other crossing S FL. I find that interesting since low pressures can't move towards each other,but the Fujiwanna effect would take place,not in this instance though.

i think that that's a station I wouldn't tune into

reliable info from any station in this area is a risky proposition when sunny and clear is expected,

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm tempted to think both lows swing NE into the Atlantic...and then
maybe...just maybe...one of them gets shunted back west...
but as a trough or warm front or semi-tropical wave...now if
shear drops to less than 10 kt off the east coast something
with a name may form but otherwise...looking more extratropical
now

I still believe south florida will have 2 rounds of
heavy flooding rains...one from
the front...and two when the front sweeps back west as a "warm"
front.

[jlauderdal]

hasn't rained too much at my house today..(extreme SE palm beach county) ..but just put the gauge out and looks like some decent storms over the water.....i think i'm good for 4 inches easy (in the next 36-48 hours)

this is a small weak surface low (apparently) .....and i don't more than 1 obs. within 50 miles of it's center

only 4 inches? sorry to hear about that.

[srainhoutx]

Boundries are always a concern. Let's hope Lake O gets some rain. I know the Keys are on once a week water restrictions.

[Aric Dunn]

Not saying 90L is the place to watch but still needs to be watch cause it will play a part in the overall outcome of this complex system.

also to clarify .. the low level convergence is increasing in association with 90L..

[Aric Dunn]

what happened to the chat?

[cycloneye]

Definitly,the GOM low is clearly the dominant one.