WHXX01 KWBC 161903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 1800 090817 0600 090817 1800 090818 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.5W 14.1N 45.5W 14.5N 48.3W
BAMD 12.5N 39.2W 13.3N 42.3W 14.2N 45.3W 15.0N 48.0W
BAMM 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.6W 13.9N 45.8W 14.3N 48.5W
LBAR 12.5N 39.2W 13.2N 42.2W 14.1N 45.5W 14.6N 48.9W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 79KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 1800 090819 1800 090820 1800 090821 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 50.8W 17.7N 55.0W 22.1N 60.3W 25.9N 65.1W
BAMD 15.8N 50.5W 18.3N 54.8W 22.1N 58.9W 27.8N 62.7W
BAMM 14.9N 50.9W 17.6N 54.9W 21.8N 59.4W 26.5N 63.7W
LBAR 15.1N 52.3W 16.4N 58.3W 21.3N 61.3W 26.9N 64.4W
SHIP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS
DSHP 96KTS 107KTS 106KTS 103KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 34.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Yeah but they do happen quite a lot...it probably needed to do that for a while but whilst the upper high was strong it was forced WSW, you could see all the convection lumped on the southern side. It was only when that was out of the way that the jump happened, almost like releasing pressure it bounced back northwards with a center relocation to a more favorable area for its circulation.
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otowntiger
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re:
shah8 wrote:Ok, I guess I give in here. It was quite a big jump north for a relocation.
Actually relocations are more likely to be big jumps rather than sudden jerks in movement. It's too big of a jump to actually be movement.
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Wx_Warrior
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Wow - Bill was near 10 yesterday, but is quickly approaching 15 today:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
Bye Bye, Bill (BBB) - it's a relief for many down here, especially after seeing yesterday's models. Perhaps people who don't live in hurricane-prone areas might not realize just how stressful it is at this time of year, when your dealing with day-to-day things one day - only to have to update your disaster plan (evacuation routes, supplies, etc.) in the back of your mind the next day, just in case...
Similar to those who live in California and deal with sudden wildfires, one always has to keep the emergency planning in the back of their mind, again, just in case, and it can become stressful due to the "up and down" of threats or rumours of threatening systems...
Frank
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
Bye Bye, Bill (BBB) - it's a relief for many down here, especially after seeing yesterday's models. Perhaps people who don't live in hurricane-prone areas might not realize just how stressful it is at this time of year, when your dealing with day-to-day things one day - only to have to update your disaster plan (evacuation routes, supplies, etc.) in the back of your mind the next day, just in case...
Similar to those who live in California and deal with sudden wildfires, one always has to keep the emergency planning in the back of their mind, again, just in case, and it can become stressful due to the "up and down" of threats or rumours of threatening systems...
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:30 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Frank2 wrote:Wow - Bill was near 10 yesterday, but is quickly approaching 15 today:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
Bye, Bill...
Dont forget Bermuda.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Yeah esp given both the GFS and the ECM utterly hammer Bermuda with probably a category-3/4 hurricane...then ther eis Newfondland which the ECM hits as well...
Anyway Bill is getting that classic look now, convection wrapping very strongly around the center of circulation around I'd guess 12.8N.
Anyway Bill is getting that classic look now, convection wrapping very strongly around the center of circulation around I'd guess 12.8N.
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Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:What are the chances of something similar to the 1938 Long Island Express happening?
still possible, but leaning more toward a fish or bermuda hit
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Re:
A track much further west than is forecast would have to take place....the 1938 storm got as far west as almost 74W longitude while east of Miami (25.9N). The current forecast for Bill shows him reaching that approx latitude around 64W....a 600 mile difference.
Bill would have to go as far west as becoming a bahamas threat (but then turn north right before reaching) if he wanted to retrace the Long Island storm of 1938.
Bill would have to go as far west as becoming a bahamas threat (but then turn north right before reaching) if he wanted to retrace the Long Island storm of 1938.
brunota2003 wrote:What are the chances of something similar to the 1938 Long Island Express happening?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
looks like a bowling ball heading down hill now......it looks wrapped up and moving pretty quickly to my eyes and a thing of beauty
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Blown Away
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:NOGAPS is not far from the Leeward Islands
I can remember back to Frances, you have always kinda liked the Nogaps! Any paticular reason?
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HurricaneRobert
- Category 3
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Re: ATL:TROPICAL STORM BILL (Models)
NOGAPS was in the GOM yesterday, but it is clearly moving toward the other models.
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Brent
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (Advisories)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
...BILL LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1440
MILES...2315 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 40.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 39.2W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.4N 42.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.2N 45.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 50.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 40.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING AND OUTFLOW. THESE FEATURES
SUGGEST THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5...55 KT ON THE
DVORAK SCALE AND THIS VALUE WILL BE USED FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/14. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF EVOLUTIONS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEM
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST...FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF...SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAUSING
IT TO BREAK AROUND 65W. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWEST MOTION OF BILL
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
AN UPPER HIGH WITH LITTLE SHEAR LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM SSTS...THERE IS NO REASON NOT TO FORECAST
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF BILL. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 38 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE
IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL RELIABLE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH THE
GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MODELS FORECASTING BILL TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER 72 HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING AS BILL
BECOMES DISPLACED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 12.8N 40.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 13.4N 42.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.2N 45.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 47.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 50.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.5N 55.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
...BILL LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1440
MILES...2315 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 40.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 40.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 39.2W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.4N 42.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.2N 45.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 50.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 40.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING AND OUTFLOW. THESE FEATURES
SUGGEST THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5...55 KT ON THE
DVORAK SCALE AND THIS VALUE WILL BE USED FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/14. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF EVOLUTIONS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEM
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST...FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF...SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAUSING
IT TO BREAK AROUND 65W. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWEST MOTION OF BILL
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN
DEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
AN UPPER HIGH WITH LITTLE SHEAR LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN COMBINATION WITH WARM SSTS...THERE IS NO REASON NOT TO FORECAST
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF BILL. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 38 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE
IN WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL RELIABLE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH THE
GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MODELS FORECASTING BILL TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
AFTER 72 HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING AS BILL
BECOMES DISPLACED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THAT
POSSIBILITY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 12.8N 40.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 13.4N 42.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 14.2N 45.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 47.7W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 50.4W 95 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.5N 55.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 105 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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