WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

still feeling the winds here....

[metenthusiast]

Manila. Blumentritt area... It suddenly stopped raining here and seems to gone calm...

Aha! So you're getting the eye too. Enjoy, especially since this storm has really weakened. It's asmall eye, so the calm won't last very long 20-30 minutes maybe.) You still must be careful, but this is much much weaker than forecast.

So that explains the sudden quiet. Never knew that before. I'm really learning a lot here, some of them hands-on while the storm passes... Thanks ozonepete!

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 30/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E121°40'(121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N300km(160NM)
S190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°55'(12.9°)
E111°35'(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E106°40'(106.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[ozonepete]

raining hard still. and wind's picking up. coconut trees swaying. im at 14.36N, 121.2E

There are very, very hard rains headed for you now. You are going to now get the heaviest rains that Mirinae has. It's a little less intense to the north over metro Manila.

[oaba09]

heavy rains again....

[metenthusiast]

Ah... started to rain again. I guess the eye has already passed. Boy, this new barrage of downpour seems to be stronger than before... I wonder if it could get any stronger than this and for how long would it stay this way?

[oaba09]

gonna sleep now...this typhoon doesn't seem so bad..........Let's see what the damages are tomorrow........

[HURAKAN]

So unfortunate that NRL is having problems.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0921 MIRINAE (0921) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 14.2N 121.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 100NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 13.9N 116.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 011800UTC 12.9N 111.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 021800UTC 11.2N 106.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[stormcaster]

no more rain here... hopefully this will be over soon and i guess we could make it out without so much damage and flooding just trying to be optimistic... thanks guys for everything... its making me much calmer when im fed with knowledge from such wonderful guys in this forum... i think i need to sleep now, my body is calling for a break... Thanks ozonepete, oaba, and the rest of the guys in here... ^^ have to rest... check the site tomorrow hopefully with a bright sunshine ^^

[ozonepete]

no more rain here... hopefully this will be over soon and i guess we could make it out without so much damage and flooding just trying to be optimistic... thanks guys for everything... its making me much calmer when im fed with knowledge from such wonderful guys in this forum... i think i need to sleep now, my body is calling for a break... Thanks ozonepete, oaba, and the rest of the guys in here... ^^ have to rest... check the site tomorrow hopefully with a bright sunshine ^^

You're welcome. Sleep well.

[stormcaster]

no more rain here... hopefully this will be over soon and i guess we could make it out without so much damage and flooding just trying to be optimistic... thanks guys for everything... its making me much calmer when im fed with knowledge from such wonderful guys in this forum... i think i need to sleep now, my body is calling for a break... Thanks ozonepete, oaba, and the rest of the guys in here... ^^ have to rest... check the site tomorrow hopefully with a bright sunshine ^^

You're welcome. Sleep well.

thanks again... i think i can do that now that the storm is downgraded... ^^

[metenthusiast]

No more rain here, just occasional gusts of wind. Does anybody know if Mirinae already passed Manila? It's at 14.3 N 120.5 E... seems that's all there is to it...

[ricmood]

Good nite countrymen. Won't be able to sleep until this wind subside. Honestly, I'm more afraid of the wind than the rain.

[metenthusiast]

I'm turning in my friends! Got to get some sleep... If that's all Mirinae has given and would give Manila, then I'm happy.

(On a weather enthusiast's point of view, as much as I'm happy of Mirinae's weakening, I might say that things here in our area turned out to be a bit anti-climatic. Well, that's just me. I guess I was expecting more from it, hence the seeming frustration... Ah well, another time maybe. As they always say, there's always a next time.)

[ozonepete]

No more rain here, just occasional gusts of wind. Does anybody know if Mirinae already passed Manila? It's at 14.3 N 120.5 E... seems that's all there is to it...

I'm waiting for the 1830 satellite. From that I can tell if the rest of the heavy rains will miss you. Should be in any minute.

[metenthusiast]

No more rain here, just occasional gusts of wind. Does anybody know if Mirinae already passed Manila? It's at 14.3 N 120.5 E... seems that's all there is to it...

I'm waiting for the 1830 satellite. From that I can tell if the rest of the heavy rains will miss you. Should be in any minute.

No more rains for Manila?

[cycloneye]

It seems that the worse is over for metro Manila as the most precipitation is to the south.The sun may come out on Saturday.

[ozonepete]

OK, the 1830 satellite image is in. The heaviest rains are all to the south of downtown Manila. They will remain quite hard just south of Manila in Santa Cruz, Santa Rosa, San Pablo City, Tagaytay City, and surrounding areas for another hour or two. Manila and north will just have a few occasional heavy showers. The winds will be strong for another few hours, but shouldn't be any stronger than what you've already seen.

Looks like you all got really lucky with this and can breathe a little easier. But we're still watching...

[dataclese]

What about the large lake SE of Manila? It looks like that lake will get an awful lot of rain and runoff...and also winds will be pushing from the lake area towards Manila...could that enhance flooding?