ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Blown Away]

Can anybody explain why the Ukmet always seems to be the outlier?

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane has got a good point, of course we need to see what it does in the next 12hrs to make sure it isn't just a wobble as it throws the convection around to its north but it does look like its heading WNW...

[shah8]

recent QS has it about at 11.3 - 11.5N.

[storms NC]

Can anybody explain why the Ukmet always seems to be the outlier?

They don't want to be like the others. Don't like to play with others

[gatorcane]

Can anybody explain why the Ukmet always seems to be the outlier?

They don't want to be like the others. Don't like to play with others

The UKMET is likely keeping this less vertically-stacked and more shallow than the other models, thus, allowing it to move more west. But we can see that is not the case, so that model can be disregarded at this time.

[jasons2k]

I didn't believe the Euro when it came out yesterday showing the recurve. Quite amazing if it sniffed-out another one.

[Blown Away]

recent QS has it about at 11.3 - 11.5N.

If that is accurate, there has not been much gain in latitude. Maybe the WNW appearance is from the ingestion of dry air and the convection expanding?

[lonelymike]

I didn't believe the Euro when it came out yesterday showing the recurve. Quite amazing if it sniffed-out another one.

Best performing model of 2008 I know it's not a hurricane model but for handling synoptics its the best JMHO. Better than the much vaunted GFS which stands for

[KWT]

How recent is that though?
Like in a few hours old or later?

[gatorcane]

Well according to the ECMWF, that trough that turns Bill away from the US is reinforced by another trough a few days later --- which means East Coast threats could be shut down for quite sometime. It's still far out but that is some good news if it verifies.

Here is a link to see what I mean. It is at 240 hours:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9081600!!/

[cycloneye]

recent QS has it about at 11.3 - 11.5N.

Post the link to it.

[wxman57]

recent QS has it about at 11.3 - 11.5N.

Don't need QS to find it. Visible satellite shows the center clearly near 12.5N/38.3W. That's a full degree north of the NHC's last advisory position. I think they had it in the wrong spot last advisory. The center is much easier to see now with visible imagery.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[bob rulz]

Yeah it's clearly north of 11N. I don't see how this could hit the islands now.

[KWT]

Hve to admit I think its quite obvious where the cente ris right now, took a good jog to the NW as the convection whipped round. Should push back close to the west as the convection whips round again heading to the south.

One big burst and this is close to hurricane strength IMO...Bermuda needs to be very watchful of this, esp as it looks like being a big system.

[littlevince]

RGB Visible with previous forecast points:

[KWT]

Looks like maybe the start of a new burst developing at the center of the system.

[cycloneye]

Wow,that is a big jump that assures the Leewards of a none direct hit.Although Hurricane Luis comes to focus when it tracked at the 17N line for a long time.

[AnnularCane]

Wow, I guess maybe that northward jump wasn't just my imagination.

[wxman57]

Close-up McIdas shot. Around 12.5N.