ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Well the models noe agreeing totally so as others have said the risks of a landfall have gone down but what should be noted still is no system moving in this direction has totally avoided land, even if it does curve up a Newfoundland hit is highly possible if nothing else...

[lebron23]

the bams 6z moved a bit south along with late 00z models...closer to the NHC track

[paintplaye]

Well the models noe agreeing totally so as others have said the risks of a landfall have gone down but what should be noted still is no system moving in this direction has totally avoided land, even if it does curve up a Newfoundland hit is highly possible if nothing else...

I will believe the turn once I see it.

[lebron23]

Well the models noe agreeing totally so as others have said the risks of a landfall have gone down but what should be noted still is no system moving in this direction has totally avoided land, even if it does curve up a Newfoundland hit is highly possible if nothing else...

I will believe the turn once I see it.

if you didnt see the end of the 6z BAMS suite at the end of the run all 3 of them bend back west...but lets see what comes from the bigger models.

[KWT]

True but I think in this case the odds of a recurve have to be quite strong now the models are in agreement.

I still not sre the NE Carribean are out of the woods by any means, the track today is going to be key as today is when its is to start its WNW motion.

[Brent]

True but I think in this case the odds of a recurve have to be quite strong now the models are in agreement.

I still not sre the NE Carribean are out of the woods by any means, the track today is going to be key as today is when its is to start its WNW motion.

Agree.

These models STRONGLY scream recurve to me. I think the odds of it happening have gone up dramatically but it bears watching:

[KWT]

The interesting thing is some of those models still take it close to Bermuda so still need watching.

Anyway still need to watch to see how much latitude it gains.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 37.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 25SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 37.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 36.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.4N 44.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 47.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 37.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...BILL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1640
MILES...2645 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.4N 37.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

THE CENTER OF BILL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS MORNING...AND A
0419 UTC AMSR-E PASS INDICATED THAT IT HAS EITHER SLOWED DOWN OR
HAS BEEN RE-FORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BILL IS
NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 100 KT SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IS STILL
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WELL BELOW THE HWRF MODEL. THIS
IS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR THAT MAY DEVELOP BY DAYS
4 AND 5...AS INDICATED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST OF THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UKMET AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 11.4N 37.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 11.8N 39.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 12.5N 41.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.4N 44.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 47.5W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 53.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 58.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 64.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[alan1961]

Think the fact that Bill as stayed at such a low latitude so far and Ana priming his path as such as been important in the continued slow development so far, the test is going to come soon if and when he starts to pick up latitude, still having a few issues with dry air on his northen side which has eaten away at Ana for most of her life, will be interesting to see though how Bill copes when he decides to gain in latitude into the drier air

P.S. spot on KWT with the shape of a western pacific cyclone, just hope it dont end up like one in full maturity!!!!

[abajan]

Is this the first year that "M" has been used on the NHC charts to represent major hurricane status? I've never noticed this before but it's a good idea. As a matter of fact, they ought to "go the whole hog" and replace the "M" with "1", "2", "3", "4" or "5" according to the expected hurricane category.

[KWT]

I'm going to guess so because I've never seen that before.

Anyway looking pretty good, should be strengthening at a faster rate pretty soon I'd imagine, could still be a hurricane by late tonight IMO.

[Cookie]

5 day forecast from weather underground

[alan1961]

Looks like the latitude lift is starting with Bill, and maybe, just mabe, dry air issues:P

[Blown Away]

Question and answer I posted to the pro's last night:

At this point are the chances Bill won't come to SFL increasing?

Of course, too far away to say for sure, but if Ana stays intact over the western Atlantic or northwestern Caribbean, then it should cause a weakness in the ridge and keep Bill away from Florida.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the center has taken a decent WNW jog just recently as the convection wraps aroun the convection. Not a true reflection of the motion just yet though, just a reflection of he change in structure. Upper high is losing its grip though and a motion closer to WNW should be coming into play.

[cycloneye]

Coma shape looking.IMO it looks like a 50kt storm now.

[KWT]

Once again in many respects it reminds me of the way Katrina started to wrap before it really stengthened of the Florida coast. Nice little CDO forming there, I'd go for 45kts at the moment but it sure looks like its strengthening.

Hurricane Carol looks like an exceptional match for Bill and that made it to a category-4 with 929mbs pressure which is very impressive.

[tolakram]

Looks to me like dry air might be getting into the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[otowntiger]

With each passing advisory it looks as if the Florida peninnsula is more and more off the hook as could be the rest of the east coast. We are dodging another bullet from Bill and Anna. This time yesterday was a whole 'nother story. It's amazing how quickly things change and certainly this time for the better.

[Blown Away]

They always like to be a little different.