ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Aric Dunn]

And everyone's drawing two circles in two different places because there are two centers trying to form.

I agree. The north is where the action is, and where some convergence exists. As the high builds in from the N later, we should see the N center start to grow.

Here's the last convergence chart from CIMSS, Emmet. You are exactly right.

[/quote]


at the moment the system is in a COL stuck between to ridges and a exiting trough .. the building ridge off the east coast should bring about a west to possible WSW motion tonight if the circ survives the day and the stretching that is going on. if this happens the forecast for the upper environment is better than the previous forecast so if it survives I guess technically we cant write it off yet.. lol my patients are waring thin with this system though,.

also jeanne stretched out in this same manner for pretty much the same reason as it was doing the loop..

[Aric Dunn]

well the buoy near by to the west is still reporting N to NW winds so the circ is still there..

[Shewtinstar]

And everyone's drawing two circles in two different places because there are two centers trying to form.

I think the north one is the one to watch. It seems to have a lot more movement in the lower level clouds.

Maybe we'll have twins!!!!!

[ozonepete]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324
Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Look, I totally respect and admire Dr. Jeff Masters and read him all the time, but can anyone tell me what he's talking about with "dry air on all sides"? I just don't see that at all.

[ozonepete]

at the moment the system is in a COL stuck between to ridges and a exiting trough .. the building ridge off the east coast should bring about a west to possible WSW motion tonight if the circ survives the day and the stretching that is going on. if this happens the forecast for the upper environment is better than the previous forecast so if it survives I guess technically we cant write it off yet.. lol my patients are waring thin with this system though,.

also jeanne stretched out in this same manner for pretty much the same reason as it was doing the loop..

Yeah, it is in a really precarious place right now. The northern circle could get blown off the northeast into nothingness as well.

[gatorcane]

looks like a another blow-up of convection again..I still see a circulation on VIS between the southern blob and northern blob, that blow-up is on the east side. Looks to be stationary at this time.

BTW - I think its no longer ex-Fred based on the last TWO, if it develops it would be using the next name. Reason is because the TWO is calling this a surface trough now which means the remnants of Fred have changed into a trough.

[Aric Dunn]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324
Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Look, I totally respect and admire Dr. Jeff Masters and read him all the time, but can anyone tell me what he's talking about with "dry air on all sides"? I just don't see that at all.

well although on water vapor the only dry air is to the decaying upper low. normal WV unless its a mid level wv image does not show the dry air at different levels.. use NRL products they help.
\


west there is still a little dry air but compared to yesterday is much improved.. to the east there is still a bunch .. but may lift out with the uppe rlow..

[Derek Ortt]

it would still be Fred. A system can open into a wave and if that wave redevelops, it keeps the same name

This has been done countless times this decade. It only gets another name if it dissipates on its way to another basin and redevelops in the other basin

[gatorcane]

did anybody notice the blow-up near the "LLC" started to happen right after the last 2pmEST TWO where NHC indicates its gotten less organized...

ex-Fred continues to play tricks indeed, now watch it blow-up some good convection for the next 6 hours:

[cycloneye]

Wow,I was absent for two days and come back today to still find the thread here.I thought this would be in the archives forum already.

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

models show a general slow WNW movement then a bend West and the WSW over Florida eventually. Currently its stationary. See models thread.

[ozonepete]

well although on water vapor the only dry air is to the decaying upper low. normal WV unless its a mid level wv image does not show the dry air at different levels.. use NRL products they help.



west there is still a little dry air but compared to yesterday is much improved.. to the east there is still a bunch .. but may lift out with the uppe rlow..

Thanks for posting the images, Aric. Unless that dry air to the east gets ingested, which hasn't looked likely so far, dry air does not seem to be a big issue at all right now.

[carolina_73]

Southern side is starting to pop right now.

[Blown Away]

The roach is starting to grow again along the S side of the circulation. If this system can get away from the shear I think it will pop, easier said than done for 2009!

[Blown Away]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1324
Last Updated: 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009 — Last Comment: 15:50 GMT le 19 septembre 2009
Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred

Posted by: JeffMasters, 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

I agree on the NW track if this system never develops and remains shallow and I think that is what Master's is saying. If Fred beats the odds and becomes a TS or hurricane it will be a deeper system and be driven more W or WSW as the high builds in.

[Blown Away]

Aric or Hurakan can you get a visible close up that may show us if there is still a tight LLC?

[HURAKAN]

Aric or Hurakan can you get a visible close up that may show us if there is still a tight LLC?

[hurricanetrack]

Dude, seriously? I was ready to put this thing behind me....come on!

[Blown Away]

Aric or Hurakan can you get a visible close up that may show us if there is still a tight LLC?

Great, so does anybody see a LLC?