ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[gatorcane]

00Z runs about ready to start. Let's see if they are still showing a recurve or not. My guess would be yes.

[Air Force Met]

Lol, nobody ever trusts the Euro until the other models trend towards it. (Believe it or not we could still learn a few things from those scientists across the pond.)

Giving this about an 75% chance of fishing now. And, btw, the faster it moves, the faster it moves into the weakness left behind by the upper low.

Why is Ana not moving into the same weakness?

Ana isn't as vertically stacked as Bill. Since its weaker (in structure...not the sustained winds)...and embedded in the stronger low level flow...its less susceptible to the break.

Also...the fact Ana is much smaller helps as well.

[ericinmia]

Lol, nobody ever trusts the Euro until the other models trend towards it. (Believe it or not we could still learn a few things from those scientists across the pond.)

Giving this about an 75% chance of fishing now. And, btw, the faster it moves, the faster it moves into the weakness left behind by the upper low.

But when the Euro and GFS are recurving for different reasons, you can't really lopp them together in the same analysis. It makes me second guess it anytime I see two models doing something similar for completely different reasons, especially when their are other global outlier's doing something completely different (UKmet).

I would tend to personally drift into a medium between the models based on what I can discredit or discount, and what appears to be synoptically possible.
-Eric

[gatorcane]

You have to admit though, Bill is so far south, its hard to imagine it can gain so much lattitude over the next several days.....but you have to go with the model consensus in my opinion.

[Bocadude85]

WHXX01 KWBC 160015
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000 090817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 35.9W 11.6N 38.3W 12.6N 41.0W 13.4N 43.8W
BAMD 11.2N 35.9W 11.5N 38.5W 12.1N 41.1W 12.8N 43.8W
BAMM 11.2N 35.9W 11.6N 38.4W 12.3N 41.1W 13.1N 43.9W
LBAR 11.2N 35.9W 11.3N 39.1W 11.7N 42.6W 12.2N 46.3W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090818 0000 090819 0000 090820 0000 090821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 46.6W 16.1N 52.8W 19.1N 59.4W 21.5N 66.2W
BAMD 13.8N 46.4W 16.2N 51.3W 19.7N 56.5W 24.1N 61.1W
BAMM 14.1N 46.7W 16.4N 52.3W 19.5N 58.5W 22.4N 64.3W
LBAR 12.8N 50.0W 13.6N 56.5W 17.8N 59.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 66KTS 83KTS 88KTS 90KTS
DSHP 66KTS 83KTS 88KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 35.9W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 33.3W DIRM12 = 259DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 30.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 25NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 25NM

$$



UKMET is the outlier.

Looks like some of the models start to show a bend back to the west.. Im assuming thats when the weakness fills in and Bill gets trapped under the ridge.

[Bocadude85]

You have to admit though, Bill is so far south, its hard to imagine it can gain so much lattitude over the next several days.....but you have to go with the model consensus in my opinion.

We have seen this a million times... models show a system recurving only to slowly start trending farther and farther west down the road. Dean, Ivan, Andrew, Frances and Ana are all examples of this.

[cycloneye]

As I said earlier,I will rejoice and celebrate when Bill passes north of 15N-50W,our NE Caribbean benchmark position.If it passes south of that position,then it will be a big problem for the NE Caribbean.

[Wx_Warrior]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, those two are the medium and shallow BAM

totally non-applicable in this case

[Gustywind]

You have to admit though, Bill is so far south, its hard to imagine it can gain so much lattitude over the next several days.....but you have to go with the model consensus in my opinion.

We have seen this a million times... models show a system recurving only to slowly start trending farther and farther west down the road. Dean, Ivan, Andrew, Frances and Ana are all examples of this.

Not good friends guy, tkink that tommorow could be be very worrying for the islands...if Bill does not reach the 12N. Something to watch carefully in the islands for the next couple of days.

[Derek Ortt]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

uh, no! The Euro has been as atrocious as Phil Mickelson's putting at the PGA Championship

when I TAed, if a student would have got an answer right by such incorrect methods as the EURO may end up doing, I'd have taken off nearly all points on the question

[ROCK]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

EURO hugger!!

[Emmett_Brown]

Just yesterday, GFS showed Bill in the GOM. The ECM is getting attention, but its still really early. Who knows what we will be talking about tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

As I said earlier,I will rejoice and celebrate when Bill passes north of 15N-50W,our NE Caribbean benchmark position.If it passes south of that position,then it will be a big problem for the NE Caribbean.

Absolutely Cycloneye, me too and even 17N 50W

[wxmann_91]

Lol, nobody ever trusts the Euro until the other models trend towards it. (Believe it or not we could still learn a few things from those scientists across the pond.)

Giving this about an 75% chance of fishing now. And, btw, the faster it moves, the faster it moves into the weakness left behind by the upper low.

But when the Euro and GFS are recurving for different reasons, you can't really lopp them together in the same analysis. It makes me second guess it anytime I see two models doing something similar for completely different reasons, especially when their are other global outlier's doing something completely different (UKmet).

I would tend to personally drift into a medium between the models based on what I can discredit or discount, and what appears to be synoptically possible.
-Eric

It's not the exact same thing but there's a definite trend towards one solution, one outcome: a near-miss for the islands followed by recurvature. I said a couple days ago that one solution would trend towards another over the weekend. We have seen that through the course of today. That's huge. And that seals the deal for me as with what to forecast for Bill's future, although again I'll leave the 25% in the case something huge happens and everyone trends back.

I'd discard the UKMET. There's only been two computer models that have been consistent up to today. One was the GFS up to around 120 hr. The other was the Euro. Only the latter still stands.

[Derek Ortt]

As I said earlier,I will rejoice and celebrate when Bill passes north of 15N-50W,our NE Caribbean benchmark position.If it passes south of that position,then it will be a big problem for the NE Caribbean.

Luis... Hurricane Luis?

[Brent]

[wxmann_91]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

uh, no! The Euro has been as atrocious as Phil Mickelson's putting at the PGA Championship

when I TAed, if a student would have got an answer right by such incorrect methods as the EURO may end up doing, I'd have taken off nearly all points on the question

Derek has me on ignore, but most everyone else can see this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2008.pdf

Table 4.

[cycloneye]

There was a strong high that caused Luis to track for a long time at 17N.Now the high is not so strong.

[vacanechaser]

Hmmm....the EURO.....

uh, no! The Euro has been as atrocious as Phil Mickelson's putting at the PGA Championship

when I TAed, if a student would have got an answer right by such incorrect methods as the EURO may end up doing, I'd have taken off nearly all points on the question

Derek has me on ignore, but most everyone else can see this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pd ... n_2008.pdf

Table 4.

ignoring you too huh... lol... been on that list since last year!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Inytercept Research Team..