ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

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Derek Ortt

#141 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:08 pm

I agree, the best convergence is ahead of the convection. That is likely where the wave axis is

the convection is merely due to favorable UL divergence
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Re:

#142 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I agree, the best convergence is ahead of the convection. That is likely where the wave axis is

the convection is merely due to favorable UL divergence


agreed...have you been able to find any kind of center of late? Any center at this point would be Mid-Level of course...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#143 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:11 pm

No doubter from center burst behavior IMO.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#144 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:No doubter from center burst behavior IMO.


center burst behavior? Where? :P
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#145 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:13 pm

18-56




Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#146 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:15 pm

Sanibel wrote:18-56




Image


I would agree with you but there is no low level convergence there...the best convergence is much further to the west...no low level convergence = no LLC development
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#147 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:16 pm

Very true, did not think about the forward speed of 20mph plus a shear coming at it near 25mph, the combination is nearly impossible for TC formation in the near term. Key to this will be the ULL filling or backing SW out of the picture once it nears the SE Bahamas in 2 days.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#148 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:16 pm

Maybe the ULL sheared the surface reflection to that position?


This is forming.


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#149 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:18 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#150 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:18 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Very true, did not think about the forward speed of 20mph plus a shear coming at it near 25mph, the combination is nearly impossible for TC formation in the near term. Key to this will be the ULL filling or backing SW out of the picture once it nears the SE Bahamas in 2 days.


Yep...give it 48-60 hours and then it will develop...it will have a honking UL High over it and 29 C water....yee haw...it will be off to the races...and not to mention the Gulf Stream to work with...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#151 Postby StormClouds63 » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:18 pm

If it does develop, Danny goes fishing for EC's sake. Again, the best hope is for a repeat of the 2006 pattern in the Atlantic basin.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#152 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:19 pm

Sanibel wrote:Maybe the ULL sheared the surface reflection to that position?


This is forming.


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:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
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#153 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:21 pm

I agree with Sanibel, the area of 18/56 is looking suspicious and the shear is actually fairly light down there. I also see no outflow boundaries from that area of repeated deep convection.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Computer Models

#154 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:22 pm

Computer models without anything to initialize. Is garbage. Until a depression forms (LLC). The models are useless. :roll:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#155 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:23 pm

NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 24 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 25/1900Z
D. 22.0N 67.0W
E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 26/0400Z
D. 23.0N 71.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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Re:

#156 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:23 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I agree with Sanibel, the area of 18/56 is looking suspicious and the shear is actually fairly light down there. I also see no outflow boundaries from that area of repeated deep convection.


Check the latest visible loop...that convection is not moving at all....its bursting over the same area...its bursting due to the ULL divergence...
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L

#157 Postby Nederlander » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:24 pm

Sanibel wrote:

This is forming.




Doesn't really look that impressive to me IMO. If I've heard it said once, I've heard it a thousand times. Convection does not equal TC formation.....
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#158 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:24 pm

Image

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Great loop exactly over the area in question
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Derek Ortt

Re: Re:

#159 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:25 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I agree, the best convergence is ahead of the convection. That is likely where the wave axis is

the convection is merely due to favorable UL divergence


agreed...have you been able to find any kind of center of late? Any center at this point would be Mid-Level of course...


nope... no center. Only WEAK wave axis
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#160 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:26 pm

I agree with Derek, the main region to watch is probably a little ahead of the convection which blowing up thanks to ULL interaction.

This really hasn't much chance in the short term however post 48hrs I'd imagine it is going to get into better conditions, will watch that ULL closely, I think it'll continue westwards whilst this system will get lifted out somewhat, eventually allowing better conditions, but its going to be a long old task IMO. 48hrs and I think the chances of developing really increase a lot.
Last edited by KWT on Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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