ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Seems to me like the models are progging some sort of weakness in the central Atlantic as the Bermuda high splits into two high pressure cells.

This is going to be interesting to watch as this is going to be the only thing that I can see saving the E.Caribbean. CMC shows this quite clearly. Meanwhiloe the GFS barely has the feature.

Given the last weakness was overdone I've got a bad feeling the GFS will be closer to the truth but we shall see.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Here's the map for 90l's position. I'm not liking TD2's historical map at all. Not cool at all when the NHC puts the NE Leewards in the cone.



My image is based on 90l, if it were a TD or greater right now. tolakrams is frightening, quite a few impact the eastern carribean and with GFS predicting the end of the world as we know it with 90l.... yikes.

[HURAKAN]

394
WHXX04 KWBC 131720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 22.2 280./ 7.0
6 11.9 24.3 272./20.4
12 12.4 25.4 292./12.0
18 12.5 27.4 273./19.4
24 11.9 28.9 249./15.3
30 11.4 29.6 236./ 8.7
36 11.4 30.2 264./ 5.5
42 11.6 30.8 288./ 6.5
48 11.7 32.2 273./14.3
54 11.9 33.4 280./11.3
60 12.2 34.9 283./15.1
66 12.4 36.8 275./18.3
72 12.6 38.5 278./16.9
78 13.0 40.1 284./15.9
84 13.6 41.8 289./17.8
90 14.2 43.7 287./19.3
96 14.7 45.6 285./19.3
102 15.2 47.6 283./19.8
108 15.4 49.5 277./18.0
114 15.8 51.3 281./17.9
120 16.2 53.3 284./19.6
126 16.6 55.2 281./19.0

[KWT]

Yep, if it wasn't for that big NW jog it takes then it hammers your area just like the 12z GFS. I think probably in the end we will see some more WNW motion but not as extreme as the CMC...whether or not its enough though for the Ne Caribbean it remains to be seen.

[KWT]

12z GFDL also looks like its going to spare the Caribbean islands it seems, but once again still too soon to make that sort of call, though the models quite happy with a generally WNW track.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

that GFDL slowdown reminds me of the phantom slowdown it had for Dean


YELLOW CARD!

[cycloneye]

Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 885 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Blown Away]

that GFDL slowdown reminds me of the phantom slowdown it had for Dean


YELLOW CARD!

Explain this, if you don't mind.

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF looks to have the ridge building back in at the end and e see more of a westward track

[Derek Ortt]

that GFDL slowdown reminds me of the phantom slowdown it had for Dean


YELLOW CARD!

Explain this, if you don't mind.

has it slowing its forward speed from 20KT to about 5KT... that is not reasonable at all. Did the same thing for Dean and that caused the GFDL Dean to miss the Caribbean entirely... WHEN IT HAMMERED MARTINIQUE

[Blown Away]

This is it folks, the real deal for 2009, all aboard!!!

[Gustywind]

to me it implies a more NW turn after PR...high is retreating east...the question is how much will the high retreat and how much will the storm turn NW or N...

Maybe something similar to Hortense in 1996 or Marilyn in 1995?

not good sisters for Guadeloupe and PR (Cycloneye) , let's say it's just prediction as we're don't forget far away from that for the moment ant that's the very good thing

[Brent]

Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 885 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The season is about to get started in a huge way. Hope everyone enjoyed the quiet.

[mattpetre]

So Derek, are you thinking this possible future storm is looking to be more Westward than the models are currently pointing or is it too early to make a statement like that?

[KWT]

Yep Derek thats very worrying because it gives it means its closer to the caribbean before it takes a slightly more WNW track.

Also several models including the CMC seem to suggest a move back to the west...maybe a bit like Frances in that respect it seems...

Finally thats very impressive power there Cycloneye, maybe best this sticks well away form land!

[PTrackerLA]

It's going to be LONG 10 days or so around here as we watch how this all plays out. Buckle up everyone!

[CrazyC83]

Say hello to Mr. Ridge

Such a setup likely means this will slip between the two ridges?

[KWT]

Yep code red probably based on clearly a good circulation and also slowly increasing convection near the center.

Only a matter of time before this goes on to develop, looks like we will have TD3 in the next 24hrs or so..

Also have you seen HWRF, it has it missing the Caribbean (though Derek thinks its somewhat flawed because of the slowdown it does) but is a major hurricane with pressure down to 930s!!

Crazy, it'll probably gain at least some latitude, shouldn't be a big eonugh weaknes to slip through though.

[cycloneye]

The intensity of the 12z GFDL run is very scary for the NE Caribbean.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation