ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[OpieStorm]

If this was off the coast of Florida it'd already be a TD at least.

Ana is knocking.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I think the next 24 hours will be a good indication. It's possible convection could start to really fizzle out as it heads towards marginal SSTs and into some SAL. I think the NHC is waiting to see if that happens or else code RED would have already been assigned. Depression quite possible, but Ana, not so sure yet. I give it a 60% chance.

OKay - I cheated as I am looking at the 18Z GFS rolling in as we speak, does not develop Ana from this....still got to give the current satellite presentation some weight as it looks good at the moment.

The 18Z GFS I'm looking at develops 99L to a TD/TS. Turns it NW across 20N near 45W.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Wxman its quite borderline TD/TS --- and at 102 hours its not even showing a Low anymore. No real turn to the NW yet a 132 hours..maybe its on the way though.

(BTW -- look what is SE of 99L here....at a low lattitude I must say)

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS poofs 99L at 144 hours it would appear but movement is WNW through the entire run so far.

[wxman57]

Still not sure what you're looking at, gatorcane. GFS shows the low through 158 hrs. It won't show much development for a weaker TS, just a closed low.

Yeah, that wave heading for the west coast of Africa looks impressive, too.

[gatorcane]

check this link out, 144 hours shows no low:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[wxman57]

:darrow: check this link out, 144 hours shows no low:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

I see a closed low there. Just no "L" to mark the spot. Doesn't make much difference. I think it has about a 90% shot at becoming Ana within 24-36 hours. May not make hurricane strength, and it probably won't threaten any land areas. But I think it'll be Ana if it holds its convection overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

:darrow: check this link out, 144 hours shows no low:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

I see a closed low there. Just no "L" to mark the spot.

yeah same here ... just no "L"

[cycloneye]

18 UTC GFDL

583
WHXX04 KWBC 092325
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.1 22.1 290./14.9
6 13.9 23.9 263./17.5
12 14.5 24.8 305./10.5
18 15.1 26.1 293./14.6
24 15.5 27.6 283./14.2
30 15.7 28.9 279./12.7
36 15.8 30.1 276./11.8
42 16.1 31.3 283./11.8
48 16.3 32.8 281./14.7
54 16.5 34.4 277./15.3
60 16.5 35.9 268./14.6
66 16.4 36.9 265./ 9.6
72 16.5 38.3 272./12.9
78 16.6 39.3 277./10.0
84 17.0 40.5 290./12.2
90 17.6 41.6 299./11.9
96 18.5 42.7 307./13.6
102 19.2 43.7 305./11.8
108 19.9 45.0 299./14.2
114 20.8 45.8 319./11.1
120 21.4 46.7 305./10.9
126 22.2 47.1 332./ 9.3


18 UTC HWRF

Code: Select all

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 9

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -22.40 LAT: 14.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -23.40 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -24.60 LAT: 14.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -25.80 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -26.90 LAT: 15.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -28.10 LAT: 15.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -29.20 LAT: 15.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -30.10 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -31.20 LAT: 16.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -32.30 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 995.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -33.50 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -34.70 LAT: 17.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -36.00 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -37.10 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -38.30 LAT: 18.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -39.50 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -40.60 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -41.70 LAT: 19.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -42.70 LAT: 19.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -43.50 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -44.40 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -45.10 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
FORECAST RAN COUPLED TO HOUR: .1500 .1500 23.1000 23.1000

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


[HurricaneRobert]

How are the conditions compared to another famous 'A' storm? We're about a week away from the time Andrew formed.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange


ABNT20 KNHC 092345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[KWT]

How can this still be code orange???

Seriously this looks better then Td9-E right now IMO and they were more then happy to rush and upgrade that one, I do agree its not changed much in terms of organisation but I think they were wrong not upping this to code red earlier. Ah well no rush I suppose!

[cycloneye]

The only thing I can think of why they left code orange is because it will not affect directly land (Although some bad weather for CV islands)

[OpieStorm]

The NHC always gives more time for these systems that are in the middle of nowhere, I guess not to waste a name. If it persists for another 12-24 hrs I'm sure they'll upgrade.

[KWT]

Yeah but they can still watch it if they up it to red alert Opiestorm, as its still effectivly a 50-50 chance of development. I just think they are being very conservative with this system at the moment.

For example Bertha last year looked pretty much exactly the same as 99L, whilst that was a TD by now this isn't even a code red??
Doesn't quite add up IMO?

[expat2carib]

If it continues to look this good, I would expect an upgrade to 'code red' on the 8pm....2am at the latest....tropical weather outlooks put out by the nhc...and an upgrade to a depression shortly thereafter

I agree. This could be Ana tomorrow. OK, so I was 2 days early with my May prediction of August 8th.

Isn't it the eight tomorrow?

[Iune]

The eighth was yesterday (EDT time)

[Recurve]

To steal a phrase: Holy crap!

Looks impressive, obviously is or almost is a TD.
Being so far east is a good sign for keeping it away. Just don't want it to mess around for days, fall apart, reform and then get caught under a blocking high. Go ahead and explode and go fish.

[CrazyC83]

09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic