ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Lowpressure]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

Yes, from 16kts down to 12 kts forward motion last advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

its not really decelerating. It was never moving 16KT this morning

[SCHawkFan]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

It is slowing down (movement forward).

[Lowpressure]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

its not really decelerating. It was never moving 16KT this morning

snipet from 11 am advisory
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16.

[HURAKAN]

Plane leaving.

[fci]

If the track even slightly shifts west looks as if New England could take a direct hit. It's a good thing Danny is weak and still in slow formation mode. Water temps are VERY HIGH off the EC this season. Danny will have water temps 85+ to work with in the gulfstream. It's even close to 80 off the coast of NE for crying out loud. Danny should have a nice window Thursday and Friday to ramp up. Once it hits those waters i have a feeling the W side of Danny will start to ramp up. I do worry with the right situation in place the EC could get a real nasty intensifying cane later this season. Waters off the EC haven't been disturbed in a very long time and it's not even near the peak.

I'm confused
When Bill kicked up the seas off the NE coast, there were people swept away including a 7 year old girl and I heard that the water temps were in the 50's?
Did I hear wrong??
Or are the waters up north not in the 80 degree range?

[storms NC]

I don't think the LLC will move. It is starting to get some moistore wraped around the LLC now.





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[artist]

Derek, et al can you explain what it means be decelerating? Are they talking about his forward speed?

its not really decelerating. It was never moving 16KT this morning

thanks Derek, do you think his llc is reforming as they stated?

[KWT]

I think it was at some point Derek but slowed right down just before the first advisory came out, was pretty obvious looking at the longer loops IMO.

Latest NHC once again slams Nove Scotia probably, most models now agree on that sort of track.

[Derek Ortt]

look for further east shifts in the tracks as the center reforms.

If this does make a landfall, probably Canada and quite possibly Newfoundland

[xironman]

He is starting to look like he can have convection all the way around. Seems like it is always the same way with these systems that are triggered by interaction with a ULL. They go through a period of looking terrible until the true warm core nature of the storm can take over.

[jpigott]

question for the pro-mets

if Danny remains a sheared mess and doesn't get its act together, will the low level circulation be more inclined to move WNWrd and not as influenced by the steering currents that are forecasted to move him NW-N

[cycloneye]

Next two missions for tonight and early morning hours.

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 27/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0404A CYCLONE
C. 26/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 27/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
C. 27/0200Z
D. 27.0N 72.0W
E. 27/0400Z TO 27/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[KWT]

look for further east shifts in the tracks as the center reforms.

If this does make a landfall, probably Canada and quite possibly Newfoundland

Looks like we now have pretty much total model agreement on that possibly occuring, though a lot do still slam Nova Scotia. Still plenty of time to watch this one, hopefully it doesn't get too much help fro mthe upper trough.

[Derek Ortt]

this is going north regardless as to how intense it is. The steering currents dictate that. Look at the shallow BAM. It is also east of the USA

[TheEuropean]

Ascending further and leaving...

000
URNT15 KNHC 262047
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 34 20090826
203800 2324N 06916W 5240 05506 0284 -041 -105 233015 015 999 999 03
203830 2323N 06914W 5104 05722 0296 -049 -120 232013 014 999 999 03
203900 2321N 06912W 4983 05910 0309 -059 -145 237011 012 999 999 03
203930 2320N 06911W 4866 06093 0320 -072 -152 248010 010 999 999 03
204000 2318N 06909W 4751 06284 0333 -085 -159 230011 013 999 999 03
204030 2316N 06907W 4637 06470 0342 -097 -159 228012 013 999 999 03
204100 2315N 06905W 4530 06640 0349 -109 -191 228012 012 999 999 03
204130 2313N 06904W 4429 06816 0358 -116 -210 221013 014 999 999 03
204200 2312N 06902W 4337 06979 0369 -122 -217 215013 014 999 999 03
204230 2310N 06901W 4254 07130 0378 -129 -227 206011 011 999 999 03
204300 2308N 06900W 4175 07268 0385 -141 -230 220012 014 999 999 03
204330 2305N 06859W 4104 07394 0394 -151 -230 227015 016 999 999 03
204400 2303N 06858W 4031 07533 0404 -158 -284 210016 018 999 999 03
204430 2301N 06857W 3951 07685 0414 -170 -294 198020 021 999 999 03
204500 2259N 06857W 3877 07828 0423 -180 -333 190019 020 999 999 03
204530 2257N 06856W 3809 07959 0432 -189 -342 189019 019 999 999 03
204600 2255N 06855W 3763 08050 0437 -195 -405 191019 019 999 999 03
204630 2253N 06854W 3750 08074 0438 -193 -345 192020 022 999 999 03
204700 2251N 06853W 3753 08069 0438 -190 -391 197024 024 999 999 03
204730 2248N 06852W 3751 08073 0439 -190 -437 197024 024 999 999 03

[Air Force Met]

question for the pro-mets

if Danny remains a sheared mess and doesn't get its act together, will the low level circulation be more inclined to move WNWrd and not as influenced by the steering currents that are forecasted to move him NW-N

In a normal steering current that would be true (one with a big high to the north at the sfc-850 mb). However, this is not a normal situation. With the sfc-850 high east of Bermuda...to the NE of Danny...this dictates a path more to the NW and then N around the high. Throw in some center reformations to the NE of the current one...and you get an overall N-NW motion over time.

[Air Force Met]

Good explosion of convection on the NE side of the LLC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15&map=latlon


And I add...that should pull the center to the NE some...

[TheEuropean]

NOAA-Mission on the way...

000
URNT15 KWBC 262053
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 04 20090826
204330 2655N 08054W 5720 04844 0127 +002 -028 148007 008 999 999 03
204400 2654N 08052W 5721 04844 0132 +000 -026 161008 008 999 999 03
204430 2654N 08050W 5722 04843 0139 -002 -051 166008 008 999 999 03
204500 2653N 08047W 5720 04845 0142 -002 -071 162008 008 999 999 03
204530 2652N 08045W 5723 04839 0135 +001 -079 159007 007 999 999 03
204600 2652N 08042W 5723 04841 0139 -001 -078 159006 007 999 999 03
204630 2651N 08040W 5722 04842 0133 +002 -082 174006 007 999 999 03
204700 2650N 08037W 5721 04843 0131 +004 -094 178007 007 999 999 03
204730 2650N 08035W 5723 04842 0132 +003 -079 162007 007 999 999 03
204800 2649N 08032W 5723 04840 0133 +003 -076 155006 007 999 999 03
204830 2648N 08030W 5722 04842 0133 +003 -080 149006 007 999 999 03
204900 2647N 08027W 5724 04838 0130 +004 -079 145006 006 999 999 03
204930 2647N 08025W 5724 04839 0125 +007 -082 148006 006 999 999 03
205000 2646N 08023W 5724 04838 0126 +006 -084 148004 005 999 999 03
205030 2645N 08020W 5725 04836 0126 +005 -077 148004 005 999 999 03
205100 2644N 08018W 5725 04836 0130 +004 -084 136003 004 999 999 03
205130 2644N 08015W 5725 04836 0131 +004 -087 145003 004 999 999 03
205200 2643N 08013W 5726 04836 0130 +004 -075 172003 004 999 999 03
205230 2642N 08011W 5725 04837 0131 +003 -074 187002 003 999 999 03
205300 2642N 08008W 5724 04837 0130 +003 -074 116003 003 999 999 03

[Stormhunter27]

The track that the NHC has now is very interesting. Hurricane Noel tracked in a very similar manner and it brought massive waves to Nova Scotia along with some impressive wind. I was standing at Peggy's cove and was amazed at the size of the waves:

http://www.stormchaser.ca/Hurricanes/Noel/Hurricane_Noel_183.jpg

Bill brought much smaller waves, but was stronger as it passed by. Noel also had a straighter path and thus was able to really push the waves ahead of it. It will be very interesting to see what Danny does.