ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Evil Jeremy]

So its finally officially Ana. First named storm, yea! Lets party! Anyways, nice typo on the NHC page. At the moment its still there, but it will eventually be corrected, so I snagged a picture of it:

[Brent]

[stormchazer]

This shows you just how bad us Floridians have it. The storm just gets a name and we are already in the cone.

[Aquawind]

HWARF has a possible cat2 off Florida... so anxious for a system and now the realization of distruction in the islands first kinda takes a little of the fun out of it..

[bevgo]

Getting exciting suddenly. I was beginning to wonder if there would be anything to watch and talk about. Here's hoping for Ana and her little brother behind her to be fish storms. Probably too much to wish for but I am not ready and may never be ready for another hurricane. Sorry if I am being a party pooper.

[Derek Ortt]

might be some westerly shear from a UL for Ana today

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[jlauderdal]

This shows you just how bad us Floridians have it. The storm just gets a name and we are already in the cone.

we have been in overlapping tracks before so this is nothing,

[Aquawind]

Bummer we want this to wind up and make more northward progress to miss the islands.. Weaker more west applies here or so they mention in the discussion. I guess at this point along the forecast path the islands are already in trouble. Convection not looking to impressive.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it might be centering a little further south near 12N -33W. That would be bad news since a track initialized further south would be less likely to miss the islands.

Edit: Thanks!

[Derek Ortt]

wrong storm, nimbus

[attallaman]

As I look at this map this morning does it appear that TS Ana could pose a threat to the GOM or will the storm pose more of a threat to the EC or is it just too early to say?

[Aquawind]

To early to say for sure but they mention the model consensus is more SW than the forecast so we will have to watch the trend..The weaker it stays the better chance of a GOMer..

[knotimpaired]

Does anyone have the projected model tracks? i.e. spaghetti tracks.

[attallaman]

To early to say for sure but they mention the model consensus is more SW than the forecast so we will have to watch the trend..The weaker it stays the better chance of a GOMer..

So are you saying if the system remains weak there is the possibility that Ana could clip the southern tip of FL and enter the very warm waters of the GOM?

[HeeBGBz]

Heading to Biloxi for vacation on the 24th. All this action in the Atlantic may spice things up a bit.

[mpic]

Have any other hurricanes followed this scenario and ended in the GOM?

[Aquawind]

To early to say for sure but they mention the model consensus is more SW than the forecast so we will have to watch the trend..The weaker it stays the better chance of a GOMer..

So are you saying if the system remains weak there is the possibility that Ana could clip the southern tip of FL and enter the very warm waters of the GOM?

Per Ana discussion.. yes weaker more westward and a better chance of GOMER..still way early for a call though..

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE
TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE.


Also...THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...
BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[attallaman]

Heading to Biloxi for vacation on the 24th. All this action in the Atlantic may spice things up a bit.

OT: So you already have your reservations made to stay at the Beau huh? I hope you enjoy your stay and I certainly hope that my area does not have to deal with anything tropical on a major scale this season and for seasons to come because my area is really beginning to come back post Katrina. I cannot say the same for the smaller communities along the coast to my west. A private contractor has begun renovation of our landmark Biloxi lighthouse which managed to survive Katrina.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

To early to say for sure but they mention the model consensus is more SW than the forecast so we will have to watch the trend..The weaker it stays the better chance of a GOMer..

So are you saying if the system remains weak there is the possibility that Ana could clip the southern tip of FL and enter the very warm waters of the GOM?

Weaker, but also has a lot to do with what the ull to the NW does. Watch the movement of the ull around 65w and see how its moving wsw just as the discussion says could happen. If that continues there will be not much of a weakness eroding the high. Expect the forecast track to shift slightly south and west over the next 24hrs or so to come into agreement with the models.

[RL3AO]

I figured there might be a special advisory after I went to sleep (or tried to go to sleep). They were just waiting for the next buoy ob.