ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261927
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 26 20090826
191800 2632N 07139W 9589 00450 0095 +221 +204 065037 038 035 000 00
191830 2632N 07141W 9586 00454 0096 +221 +205 064038 039 035 000 00
191900 2631N 07144W 9584 00458 0097 +219 +209 061037 039 036 000 00
191930 2631N 07146W 9584 00456 0097 +218 +210 061038 039 035 000 03
192000 2631N 07148W 9584 00455 0097 +218 +210 061037 037 035 000 00
192030 2631N 07151W 9585 00455 0098 +218 +212 061036 037 034 000 00
192100 2630N 07153W 9586 00455 0098 +219 +211 061036 036 034 000 03
192130 2630N 07156W 9581 00457 0098 +219 +213 057034 035 035 000 03
192200 2630N 07158W 9591 00452 0098 +220 +213 055033 034 032 000 00
192230 2630N 07200W 9584 00457 0098 +220 +211 058035 036 032 000 03
192300 2629N 07203W 9584 00459 0098 +219 +212 061035 036 026 001 03
192330 2629N 07205W 9584 00456 0099 +216 +211 063038 038 030 000 03
192400 2629N 07208W 9588 00455 0099 +216 +208 063038 039 029 001 00
192430 2629N 07210W 9585 00456 0100 +214 +214 063033 035 033 000 00
192500 2628N 07213W 9586 00455 0100 +215 +213 058030 031 031 002 00
192530 2628N 07215W 9584 00459 0102 +213 +213 054029 032 034 001 00
192600 2628N 07217W 9590 00453 0101 +216 +215 056029 031 030 000 00
192630 2628N 07220W 9586 00456 0101 +216 +211 063031 032 027 000 03
192700 2627N 07222W 9587 00456 0101 +215 +209 063033 035 028 000 03
192730 2627N 07225W 9587 00456 0103 +215 +210 060031 032 029 000 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

At 19:18:00Z (first observation), the observation was 368 miles (593 km) to the ENE (74°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:27:30Z (last observation), the observation was 321 miles (517 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Pretty vigorous lower level flow into that blob of convection to the east of the LLC.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261937
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 27 20090826
192800 2627N 07227W 9586 00458 0103 +216 +205 059031 032 031 000 03
192830 2627N 07229W 9588 00455 0103 +207 +206 058029 031 999 999 03
192900 2625N 07231W 9588 00455 0102 +213 +209 057026 027 999 999 03
192930 2623N 07230W 9584 00460 0101 +216 +208 063025 026 025 001 03
193000 2622N 07228W 9581 00461 0100 +217 +207 060025 027 021 004 03
193030 2621N 07227W 9583 00458 0099 +217 +206 062028 029 999 999 03
193100 2620N 07225W 9586 00455 0097 +219 +205 061027 028 023 003 03
193130 2618N 07224W 9589 00450 0096 +219 +205 059028 029 999 999 03
193200 2617N 07222W 9583 00455 0095 +220 +204 061028 029 024 002 03
193230 2616N 07221W 9581 00457 0094 +221 +204 061029 029 025 002 03
193300 2614N 07219W 9583 00454 0092 +224 +200 063027 028 025 002 03
193330 2613N 07218W 9598 00439 0090 +232 +196 068029 029 024 002 03
193400 2612N 07217W 9599 00434 0087 +229 +201 067030 031 020 003 03
193430 2611N 07215W 9586 00445 0085 +231 +198 066029 030 022 003 03
193500 2610N 07214W 9592 00440 0086 +225 +203 064031 031 999 999 03
193530 2609N 07213W 9590 00442 0087 +219 +210 066031 032 999 999 03
193600 2608N 07212W 9598 00435 0087 +222 +211 065027 029 018 005 03
193630 2607N 07211W 9585 00446 0087 +221 +210 063027 028 018 003 03
193700 2606N 07210W 9594 00438 0086 +226 +206 057027 028 999 999 03
193730 2605N 07208W 9588 00443 0086 +219 +214 053024 025 020 003 03
$$
;

[OuterBanker]

Not giving up on Danny yet. Don't see any reason for a more west movement, in fact it looks like it's following the tpc route. One thing I have noticed is that the west side is starting to show some convection, and it also seems to be trying to line itself up. Danny has a lot of warm water ahead of it, especially north of 30N. I don't see any more than maybe strong ts strength here. But it could be trouble for the metropolitan centers in New England with just a slight west jog.

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

At 19:28:00Z (first observation), the observation was 319 miles (514 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:37:30Z (last observation), the observation was 332 miles (535 km) between the ENE and E (78°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[KWT]

What should be noted is even if it does recurve it still seems like a big risk yet again to the Nova Scotia and so soon after Bill that would no doubt cause issues.

[ConvergenceZone]

Danny boy is looking like a mess. I don't see how this is going to make hurricane strength, let alone strong tropical storm strength. Heck, I don't even know if it's going to survive at this point....So where it's going to go may not even be an issue afterall.

[OuterBanker]

One other note. The entire east coast has seen above average rainfall this summer. Trees are full with saturated roots which make for easy takedown. Even a minimum hurricane could spell trouble for the northeast.

[Sanibel]

Although naked, the south quadrant inflow is starting to take that "cornucopia horn" shape that sometimes signifies storms that intensify. Still mostly west.

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 261947
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 28 20090826
193800 2604N 07207W 9589 00442 0086 +218 +218 044021 022 022 005 03
193830 2603N 07206W 9591 00438 0084 +220 +220 049021 022 999 999 03
193900 2602N 07205W 9583 00444 0082 +222 +218 054021 022 015 004 03
193930 2600N 07203W 9575 00453 0084 +223 +210 057022 022 022 002 03
194000 2559N 07202W 9586 00442 0083 +231 +193 066023 023 022 002 03
194030 2558N 07200W 9586 00441 0082 +232 +197 066024 024 020 003 03
194100 2556N 07159W 9588 00441 0082 +231 +199 065024 024 026 000 00
194130 2555N 07158W 9586 00442 0082 +228 +206 064022 023 027 000 03
194200 2554N 07156W 9582 00448 0083 +227 +209 063020 020 026 000 03
194230 2553N 07155W 9587 00441 0082 +227 +212 060019 019 026 000 03
194300 2551N 07153W 9586 00443 0083 +225 +212 059019 019 024 000 03
194330 2550N 07152W 9586 00442 0082 +226 +216 053017 018 025 000 03
194400 2549N 07150W 9584 00445 0082 +225 +219 050016 016 022 000 00
194430 2547N 07149W 9584 00443 0081 +225 +218 047014 015 022 000 03
194500 2546N 07147W 9586 00439 0080 +226 +216 050014 014 020 000 03
194530 2545N 07146W 9585 00442 0080 +225 +219 050013 014 021 000 00
194600 2543N 07144W 9586 00440 0080 +225 +217 047013 013 018 000 00
194630 2542N 07143W 9585 00441 0080 +223 +220 043011 012 023 000 00
194700 2541N 07141W 9586 00439 0080 +225 +219 055010 010 020 000 03
194730 2539N 07140W 9585 00441 0080 +225 +216 053010 011 018 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

12z ECM takes nearly the exact track the NHC has, and hits Nova Scotia with its right side.

[artist]

At 19:38:00Z (first observation), the observation was 333 miles (536 km) between the ENE and E (78°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:47:30Z (last observation), the observation was 357 miles (574 km) to the E (84°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[artist]

CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N
TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ080-262130-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 24N E OF 77W...

[ncgurl]

Do you all think that it will come right up the NC coast and hit OBX?

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 261957
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 29 20090826
194800 2538N 07138W 9584 00442 0080 +225 +217 054010 010 019 000 03
194830 2536N 07137W 9586 00440 0079 +229 +213 058009 009 017 000 00
194900 2535N 07135W 9585 00439 0077 +225 +221 053009 009 012 000 00
194930 2534N 07134W 9593 00432 0088 +228 +218 054008 008 007 000 03
195000 2533N 07132W 9602 00450 0099 +229 +219 052009 009 010 000 03
195030 2532N 07131W 9589 00431 0073 +228 +218 055007 008 009 000 03
195100 2530N 07130W 9593 00429 0073 +228 +216 053008 008 008 000 00
195130 2529N 07129W 9592 00429 0073 +226 +219 052007 008 006 000 03
195200 2528N 07128W 9589 00433 0073 +226 +218 050007 008 009 000 03
195230 2527N 07126W 9592 00429 0073 +225 +219 050007 008 004 001 00
195300 2526N 07125W 9592 00430 0073 +225 +218 049007 007 009 000 03
195330 2525N 07124W 9589 00431 0073 +225 +219 046007 007 006 000 00
195400 2524N 07123W 9590 00430 0072 +227 +218 042006 007 010 000 00
195430 2523N 07121W 9593 00427 0076 +228 +218 033007 007 012 000 03
195500 2522N 07120W 9590 00429 0074 +226 +220 028006 007 006 000 03
195530 2521N 07119W 9591 00429 0073 +225 +222 035006 006 008 000 03
195600 2520N 07117W 9592 00427 0083 +227 +220 044006 006 009 000 03
195630 2519N 07116W 9589 00428 0073 +227 +222 035005 006 007 000 00
195700 2518N 07115W 9592 00456 0080 +230 +219 053004 004 005 001 03
195730 2517N 07113W 9585 00432 0069 +228 +221 055004 005 007 000 03
$$

[artist]

At 19:48:00Z (first observation), the observation was 359 miles (577 km) to the E (84°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 19:57:30Z (last observation), the observation was 384 miles (617 km) to the E (88°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[Air Force Met]

Danny boy is looking like a mess. I don't see how this is going to make hurricane strength, let alone strong tropical storm strength. Heck, I don't even know if it's going to survive at this point....So where it's going to go may not even be an issue afterall.

Nothing like now casting...

Just a reminder: There are so many times in the past where a storm looked bad...exposed...naked (a lot worse than Danny)...only to get its act together quickly. I can't even count how many times that has happened. Danny is going to survive....and all you have to do is look at a little history to see how this can easily become a hurricane. All the center needs to do is tuck/reform under the convection...and I think it is doing that now (allbeit slowly).

Might need to bookmark this post for later...