ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[webke]

Thanks Jlauderdal

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROF IS DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS (ONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS) WHILE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL. ALSO, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MILL
ABOUT LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER INVERTED TROF (THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
FRED) IS HEADING WEST AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK INVERTED TROF LOCATED JUST S AND EAST OF S FL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY HEAD WEST BOUND THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO S FL
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE E COAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS SAT
PROGRESSES WHILE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
BEHIND THIS TROF, AND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOVING THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
SOUTH THIS WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF FRED ON AN EASTWARD COURSE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHBOUND AND INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE AT BEST.


&&





LONG TERM...04/AT

[Emmett_Brown]

Getting a bit more convection near the center

Yup. And this time, there is convection popping up in all quadrants, not just the down shear quads... some in the N, some in the S, etc. The convection now is more related to convergence instead of just being the result of shear fanning the flames.

[srainhoutx]

[jlauderdal]

Getting a bit more convection near the center

Yup. And this time, there is convection popping up in all quadrants, not just the down shear quads... some in the N, some in the S, etc. The convection now is more related to convergence instead of just being the result of shear fanning the flames.

how are you two seeing convection from this visible shot, please explain. thanks

[wxman57]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROF IS DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS (ONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS) WHILE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL. ALSO, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MILL
ABOUT LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER INVERTED TROF (THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
FRED) IS HEADING WEST AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK INVERTED TROF LOCATED JUST S AND EAST OF S FL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY HEAD WEST BOUND THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO S FL
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE E COAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS SAT
PROGRESSES WHILE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
BEHIND THIS TROF, AND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOVING THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
SOUTH THIS WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF FRED ON AN EASTWARD COURSE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHBOUND AND INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE AT BEST.

Relax everyone, it's on an eastward course out to sea.

[jlauderdal]

Thanks Jlauderdal

you can thank the ridging that will be in place, enjoy

[gatorcane]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROF IS DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS (ONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS) WHILE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL. ALSO, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MILL
ABOUT LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER INVERTED TROF (THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
FRED) IS HEADING WEST AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK INVERTED TROF LOCATED JUST S AND EAST OF S FL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY HEAD WEST BOUND THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO S FL
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE E COAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS SAT
PROGRESSES WHILE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
BEHIND THIS TROF, AND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOVING THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
SOUTH THIS WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF FRED ON AN EASTWARD COURSE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHBOUND AND INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE AT BEST.

Relax everyone, it's on an eastward course out to sea.

yep that is a typo, should say "westward"

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROF IS DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS (ONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS) WHILE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL. ALSO, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MILL
ABOUT LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER INVERTED TROF (THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
FRED) IS HEADING WEST AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK INVERTED TROF LOCATED JUST S AND EAST OF S FL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY HEAD WEST BOUND THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO S FL
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE E COAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS SAT
PROGRESSES WHILE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
BEHIND THIS TROF, AND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOVING THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
SOUTH THIS WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF FRED ON AN EASTWARD COURSE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHBOUND AND INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE AT BEST.

Relax everyone, it's on an eastward course out to sea.

Never Eat Shredded Wheat.....

[jlauderdal]

im issuing a heavy post warning from all residents of florida through at least Monday, code red for this eastward moving situation

[Nimbus]

You know that tight little semi naked swirl racing west reminds me of..

[expat2carib]

You know that tight little semi naked swirl racing west reminds me of..

Sorry,.....of.... what?

[jlauderdal]

You know that tight little semi naked swirl racing west reminds me of..

this is a family board

[Aric Dunn]

Latest Shear analysis is interesting.. i have been animating it and the area of high shear that it has been experiencing all day does not seem to be advancing west to fast, which means Fred will be entering lower shear earlier than i originally thought. the western edge of the circ is starting to move into lighter shear and the rest should cross in the next 6 to 12 hours. also the area of 30 kts that was over it has shrunk to almost nothing and the area of 20kts has shrunk as well ..

[Aric Dunn]

one thing is for sure... Timing with this system is very very important.. cause depending on when it gets out of the shear ( if at all ) will determine it strength ..

[artist]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROF IS DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS (ONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE KEYS) WHILE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE GULF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL. ALSO, A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO MILL
ABOUT LOUISIANA AND ANOTHER INVERTED TROF (THE WEAK REMNANTS OF
FRED) IS HEADING WEST AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WEAK INVERTED TROF LOCATED JUST S AND EAST OF S FL WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY HEAD WEST BOUND THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO S FL
TONIGHT. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG THE E COAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS SAT
PROGRESSES WHILE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
BEHIND THIS TROF, AND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW FINALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOVING THE SURFACE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SOUTHWARD. AS THE RIDGE PUSHES
SOUTH THIS WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS OF FRED ON AN EASTWARD COURSE
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD FL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF FRED AND DURING THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHBOUND AND INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG
THE EAST COAST WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPARSE AT BEST.


&&





LONG TERM...04/AT

did you notice it said on an eastward course?

ooops, I wasn't fast enough, someone else beat me to it!

[Nimbus]

Andrew had more convection at this longitude but Katrina was still just a swirl till she got west of -70.

[jaxfladude]

So what is the worst case scenario regarding ex-Fred?

[Aric Dunn]

Andrew had more convection at this longitude but Katrina was still just a swirl till she got west of -70.

Hurricane Andrew Loop...

clearly in about the same spot when the ridge build in.. tracks are very similar.. as close as one could expect..anyway both at about 70 west.. just andrew was a little more organized.. ..lol

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/hursat/ ... 25-AND.mpg

[Lifesgud2]

Aric,

That link didnt work for me.