ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

I think you're right on a second look at the recon data, AFM

I glossed over those 7-10KT winds the first time and only saw the 1-3KTers

[artist]

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 261817
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 19 20090826
180800 2529N 07018W 9590 00428 0096 +220 +220 102020 021 999 999 03
180830 2530N 07017W 9590 00428 0086 +216 +216 106018 018 023 001 03
180900 2531N 07016W 9591 00429 0072 +232 +220 110017 019 022 001 03
180930 2532N 07015W 9591 00428 0073 +230 +223 115020 020 999 999 03
181000 2533N 07014W 9592 00428 0083 +231 +220 118018 019 020 000 03
181030 2534N 07012W 9589 00431 0076 +234 +218 121018 019 022 000 03
181100 2535N 07011W 9593 00427 0074 +230 +218 113017 019 020 000 03
181130 2536N 07010W 9589 00432 0073 +230 +216 116016 016 019 000 03
181200 2537N 07009W 9592 00430 0073 +235 +213 118016 017 018 002 03
181230 2538N 07008W 9589 00433 0074 +234 +209 116017 017 020 000 03
181300 2539N 07006W 9590 00432 0074 +235 +207 119017 018 018 000 03
181330 2540N 07005W 9593 00430 0074 +235 +211 126018 018 999 999 03
181400 2541N 07004W 9589 00434 0075 +236 +208 132017 018 019 002 03
181430 2543N 07003W 9593 00431 0075 +234 +210 125019 021 999 999 03
181500 2544N 07001W 9592 00433 0077 +230 +212 125021 023 999 999 03
181530 2545N 07000W 9592 00434 0078 +230 +208 126021 022 015 000 03
181600 2546N 06959W 9593 00432 0079 +225 +217 125022 023 999 999 03
181630 2547N 06958W 9589 00437 0079 +224 +220 129023 023 017 001 03
181700 2548N 06957W 9592 00435 0080 +222 +222 126023 023 999 999 03
181730 2549N 06955W 9592 00434 0080 +225 +221 127023 024 999 999 03
$$

[artist]

At 18:08:00Z (first observation), the observation was 441 miles (710 km) to the E (86°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 18:17:30Z (last observation), the observation was 466 miles (751 km) to the E (84°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[UpTheCreek]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

I can't see how anyone can claim it's not moving NW.

Convection looks NW. LLC looks westward to me.......I think we need to watch the LLC.

[KWT]

Thats a good point Wxman57 actually, even if it does end up close to the coast there probably won't be a huge amount of bad weather on the western side of this system, I suspect it'll have a hard time developing a 'good look' for better a term.

[NC George]

Yuck the CMC right over manhatten

Yep .... CMC has the trillion dollar storm scenario - major storm sweeping right up the eastern seaboard from the Grand Banks to Boston.

Let's all sincerely hope that doesn't verify.

Do you mean the Outer Banks? The Grand Banks are off Newfoundland.

[Derek Ortt]

the LLC is clearly moving NW on 1km visible. The coordinates show as such.

It is not coming to Florida. No chance at all. It is not coming to Georgia, no chance at all.

This will keep moving WNW to NW until it turns

[deltadog03]

Right, the convection might be heading NW, Still only there because of upper div. with the shear, BUT the LLC is moving nearly due W.

[storms NC]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

I can't see how anyone can claim it's not moving NW.

looking at the center only. it is moveing more west than north in thoes frames. So I would go with 290

[wxman57]

Right, the convection might be heading NW, Still only there because of upper div. with the shear, BUT the LLC is moving nearly due W.

The center will follow the convection, eventually. It's the convection that generates the convergence which leads to a center.

[Derek Ortt]

Right, the convection might be heading NW, Still only there because of upper div. with the shear, BUT the LLC is moving nearly due W.

LLC is now at 25.3N and 70.4W. This is drifting NW

[Air Force Met]

I think you're right on a second look at the recon data, AFM

I glossed over those 7-10KT winds the first time and only saw the 1-3KTers

Let's be honest...you just want to sing the second verse of Danny boy...

And when you come, and all the flowers are dying
If I am dead, as dead I well may be
You'll come and find the place where I am lying
And kneel and say an "Ave" there for me.
And I shall hear, tho' soft you tread above me
And all my grave will warmer, sweeter be
For you will bend and tell me that you love me
And I shall sleep in peace until you come to me.

[tolakram]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

go 90% quality, 10 frames, animate, and click near the llc. Clearly NW, IMO

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261827
AF307 0205A DANNY HDOB 20 20090826
181800 2550N 06954W 9590 00438 0080 +225 +222 127023 024 020 000 03
181830 2551N 06953W 9592 00435 0081 +225 +220 130023 023 022 001 03
181900 2552N 06952W 9591 00436 0082 +223 +221 128022 023 999 999 03
181930 2553N 06951W 9591 00437 0082 +224 +219 129022 022 024 001 03
182000 2554N 06949W 9576 00452 0082 +221 +215 131023 024 023 000 03
182030 2556N 06948W 9579 00452 0087 +220 +214 128024 025 999 999 03
182100 2557N 06946W 9588 00445 0088 +222 +212 127024 025 999 999 03
182130 2558N 06945W 9584 00448 0088 +221 +211 130025 026 999 999 03
182200 2558N 06945W 9584 00448 0089 +220 +213 128026 026 999 999 03
182230 2601N 06942W 9585 00449 0090 +220 +212 130026 027 999 999 03
182300 2602N 06940W 9587 00447 0090 +219 +212 133027 028 999 999 03
182330 2604N 06939W 9592 00444 0092 +218 +212 132029 030 999 999 03
182400 2605N 06938W 9583 00452 0092 +219 +208 131029 030 999 999 03
182430 2607N 06937W 9589 00448 0093 +216 +209 129031 031 999 999 03
182500 2608N 06935W 9580 00456 0094 +213 +210 129031 032 999 999 03
182530 2609N 06934W 9589 00449 0095 +213 +207 129030 030 028 000 03
182600 2611N 06932W 9582 00455 0096 +214 +208 125030 031 999 999 03
182630 2612N 06931W 9587 00452 0097 +212 +210 124030 031 030 000 03
182700 2613N 06929W 9583 00457 0098 +212 +207 125033 035 999 999 03
182730 2614N 06927W 9588 00452 0098 +213 +207 122034 035 999 999 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah I have to agree with Derek looking at the high resolution stuff it does seem to be going near enough to NW, maybe just south of NW it appears.

Its probably the fact that the northern part of the wave is so much stronger then the southern side may be giving the illusion of a more westerly motion.

[Frank2]

Not much to report ATTM, considering the amount of shear over the system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[deltadog03]

Right, the convection might be heading NW, Still only there because of upper div. with the shear, BUT the LLC is moving nearly due W.

The center will follow the convection, eventually. It's the convection that generates the convergence which leads to a center.

Oh, I agree...100% I wouldn't be suprised if it migrates back towards the deep convection. It might not be due west, but still has plenty of west in it.

[Derek Ortt]

I think you're right on a second look at the recon data, AFM

I glossed over those 7-10KT winds the first time and only saw the 1-3KTers

Let's be honest...you just want to sing the second verse of Danny boy...

And when you come, and all the flowers are dying
If I am dead, as dead I well may be
You'll come and find the place where I am lying
And kneel and say an "Ave" there for me.
And I shall hear, tho' soft you tread above me
And all my grave will warmer, sweeter be
For you will bend and tell me that you love me
And I shall sleep in peace until you come to me.

true... I'd love for this to die. Every day there is a storm means 4:30 a.m. wake-up for me