EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA (13E)

[CrazyC83]

Still pretty conservative of a guess, but that supports 90 kt.

[KWT]

Yep clearly this one is strengthening rapidly, 90kts probably a good deal closer to the truth, could well be a major as well right now I agree.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 13, 2009082918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1038W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 50,

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 291832
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009) 20090829 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090829  1800   090830  0600   090830  1800   090831  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.8N 103.8W   15.2N 104.9W   15.7N 106.4W   16.4N 107.9W
BAMD    14.8N 103.8W   15.6N 105.2W   16.7N 106.2W   18.0N 107.0W
BAMM    14.8N 103.8W   15.5N 105.0W   16.3N 106.1W   17.3N 107.2W
LBAR    14.8N 103.8W   15.7N 105.1W   16.8N 106.6W   18.1N 108.5W
SHIP        90KTS         115KTS         127KTS         128KTS
DSHP        90KTS         115KTS         127KTS         128KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090831  1800   090901  1800   090902  1800   090903  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N 109.6W   19.3N 113.0W   21.6N 115.0W   22.5N 116.1W
BAMD    19.6N 107.9W   23.7N 109.5W   28.0N 110.2W   29.7N 108.9W
BAMM    18.5N 108.7W   22.0N 111.7W   25.2N 114.2W   26.0N 115.3W
LBAR    19.6N 110.4W   24.2N 113.6W   29.8N 115.4W   32.3N 114.2W
SHIP       122KTS         108KTS          88KTS          59KTS
DSHP       122KTS         108KTS          88KTS          59KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.8N LONCUR = 103.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 = 101.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  13.6N LONM24 = 100.1W
WNDCUR =   90KT RMAXWD =    5NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  970MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =   40NM RD34NW =  50NM
 
$$
NNNN




[CrazyC83]

Wow, and even SHIPS may be conservative. 145-155 kt is my guess for peak.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

*   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *  JIMENA      EP132009  08/29/09  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    90   104   115   122   127   128   122   115   108   100    88    72    59
V (KT) LAND       90   104   115   122   127   128   122   115   108   100    88    72    59
V (KT) LGE mod    90   106   117   123   126   124   117   107    96    84    69    54    42

SHEAR (KT)         8     7     6     5     5     7    11     5     6    10     8    15    18
SHEAR DIR        111   116   148   185   187   245   261   244   239   205   220   228   262
SST (C)         30.3  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.2  29.3  28.2  26.1  23.5  22.5  22.3
POT. INT. (KT)   168   168   168   168   168   169   167   158   146   125    97    86    84
200 MB T (C)   -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    10    10    10     9     9     8     6     4     2     1
700-500 MB RH     80    78    77    77    74    69    68    67    66    65    56    49    42
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    11    11    13    13    14    14    14    15    16    14    12    11
850 MB ENV VOR    15    19    31    23    25    24    18     7    10    22     6     0    13
200 MB DIV        87    94    75    70    74    44    29    35    41    34    18    -7    -7
LAND (KM)        371   379   397   413   437   429   449   413   315   320   295   330   348
LAT (DEG N)     14.8  15.0  15.2  15.4  15.6  16.5  17.8  19.2  20.6  22.1  23.6  24.9  25.9
LONG(DEG W)    103.8 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.7 109.0 110.4 111.8 113.4 114.9 116.4 117.8
STM SPEED (KT)     8     7     7     6     7     8     9    10    10    11    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      50    28    64    69    71    56    49    39    14     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  396  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   6.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   5.   2.  -1.  -6. -13. -20. -25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   6.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE           11.  17.  19.  19.  15.  11.   8.   5.   4.   3.   1.  -2.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.   7.   4.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          14.  25.  32.  37.  38.  32.  25.  18.  10.  -2. -18. -31.

   ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA     08/29/09  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  45.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.3 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  80.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  77.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  81.8 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   6.5 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  56.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    95% is   8.7 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    95% is  13.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    95% is  19.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA     08/29/09  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##    NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED

[KWT]

Yeah I don't see why this can't become a category-5 given conditions are very impressive and the small size does bode well for something like that to occur.

[CrazyC83]

The parameters are still insane. I see no reason why this can't go not just to Cat 5, but sub-900mb.

[pepeavilenho]

eye is coming

[CrazyC83]

The 970mb pressure estimate is likely way, way off (that is just the standard Dvorak estimate for T5.0). My guess is closer to 940mb.

[Macrocane]

Clous tops have warmed I think because of the diurnal minimum, but it's overall appearence is very good. I think it could become a cat 5 but not sub-900 mb given its rather small size though it has grown since last night.

[clfenwi]

Checking 06Z forecasts against 18Z best track:

BT: 14.8N, 103.8W

NHC:14.4N 103.5W 30 nautical mile error

GFD:14.7N 103.1W 41 nm error

[KWT]

Well only recon would really give a good indication how strong this is, I do suspect though its stronger then is thought by the NHC...

Also whilst early days it seems to still having a NW motion over the last 6hrs, north of where it should be 00 UTC, and if it keeps up this rate its going to be a good deal NE of where was expected.

[Macrocane]

Is it me or Jimena looks very bad compared to what we see earlier today?

[clfenwi]

Pinhole eye feature has become less distinct, that much is for sure.

[CrazyC83]

Such tiny cores easily fall apart and regenerate in a heartbeat...

[Macrocane]

Such tiny cores easily fall apart and regenerate in a heartbeat...

I remember Carlos earlier this season, it fell apart and then peaked to almost cat 3, this is a cat 2 fell apart and may peak later into a cat 4...just a wishcast

[clfenwi]

Yeah, that falls under the category of "unpredictable eyewall dynamics". You know the researchers are wishing they could have have been flying around during this eveloution.

If you watch an unzoomed loop, you can see some areas of improvement in appearance.

[HURAKAN]

525
WTPZ33 KNHC 292033
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...JIMENA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 655 MILES...
1055 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.1N 104.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


523
WTPZ43 KNHC 292033
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT JIMENA HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE
TINY EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT WITH SOME WARMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN
PLAYING CATCH UP ALL DAY...NOW 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...AND THIS
WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE WAY THAT JIMENA
WOULD STOP INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS AN EYEWALL
CYCLE...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE SMALL EYE AND A MOAT OF
DRIER AIR SEEN ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...ALL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DUE TO EXTREMELY WARM WATERS...AS MUCH AS 1.5C WARMER
THAN AVERAGE...AND LOW SHEAR. IT IS NOTABLE THAT JIMENA WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH HAVE BEEN UNTAPPED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THE NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND
THE SHIPS MODEL...AND SHOWS ANOTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN ABOUT
2-3 DAYS DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.

THE FORMATION OF THE EYE HAS LED TO A MORE RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION
OF 300/10...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STILL IN A LARGE DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW MUCH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EFFECT JIMENA. THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONSISTS OF THE GFDL/HWRF...
WHICH INSISTS THAT JIMENA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW
AND THREATEN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND JIMENA
TO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...KEEPING JIMENA FARTHER AWAY FROM MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
HWRF/GFDL HAVE HISTORICALLY HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY MADE A SMALL EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THEIR 1200 UTC FORECASTS. THE NHC FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS FORECAST HAS TO BE
CONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
HWRF/GFDL AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.1N 104.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.6N 105.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 16.3N 106.6W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 17.2N 107.8W 125 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 18.3N 109.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 118.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Andrew92]

I just saw model plots on Weather Underground, and that HWRF has me very concerned. This model has Jimena making landfall near Los Mochis (south end of Gulf of California), than heading northward and stalling over southern Arizona. Again I ask, how reliable is this model? Should I be concerned about the possibility of flooding in Phoenix? Any answers would be very appreciated, so thanks in advance!

-Andrew92