EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Derek Ortt]

QS has some 55-60KT wind vectors

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 10:24:42 N Lon : 116:39:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 989.8mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -65.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt04E.html

[RL3AO]

Its a few hours old.

[KWT]

Think its likely to be upped to 60kts next advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed with 60 kt right now. Doesn't look quite good enough to call it a hurricane, but almost. Maybe if it improves more by the advisory it will support 65 kt.

[HurricaneRobert]

You can see the eye now in visible.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

60 kts,990 mbs.But they can go more up just before advisory.

Time=18:00 UTC.
Position=10.5N-117.2W.
Winds=60 kts.
Pressure=990 mbs.
System=Tropical Storm.

EP, 04, 2009071118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1172W, 60, 990, TS,

[HURAKAN]

Little but dangerous.

[cycloneye]

Hawaii,pay attention to Carlos.

12z GFDL

85kts at 142W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

12z HWRF

66kts at 142W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Category 5]

Wakey wakey

[RL3AO]

EP, 04, 2009071118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1172W, 65, 987, HU,
EP, 04, 2009071118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1172W, 65, 987, HU,
EP, 04, 2009071118, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1172W, 65, 987, HU,

[cycloneye]

Yes,they upgraded.

119
WHXX01 KMIA 111837
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090711 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090711 1800 090712 0600 090712 1800 090713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 117.2W 10.7N 119.5W 10.9N 121.9W 11.1N 124.5W
BAMD 10.5N 117.2W 10.5N 119.5W 10.6N 121.8W 10.9N 124.1W
BAMM 10.5N 117.2W 10.4N 119.5W 10.6N 121.7W 10.9N 124.0W
LBAR 10.5N 117.2W 10.7N 119.4W 10.9N 122.0W 11.5N 124.8W
SHIP [b]65KTS 79KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 65KTS 79KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090713 1800 090714 1800 090715 1800 090716 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 127.1W 12.1N 132.2W 12.8N 137.2W 13.8N 142.6W
BAMD 11.2N 126.4W 12.3N 130.3W 13.2N 133.6W 13.8N 137.3W
BAMM 11.3N 126.2W 12.6N 130.3W 13.7N 134.2W 14.4N 138.8W
LBAR 12.1N 127.7W 12.9N 133.7W 13.4N 138.1W 11.6N 141.5W
SHIP 94KTS 87KTS 72KTS 59KTS
DSHP 94KTS 87KTS 72KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 117.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 113.4W
WNDCUR = 65KTS RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 55NM

$$
NNNN
[/b]

[Category 5]

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

Off the charts, I think we can stop pining over the Atlantic now, we could have a ticking time bomb on our hands.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak T Numbers

11/1800 UTC 10.5N 117.1W T4.0/4.0 CARLOS -- East Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Intensity chart.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[cycloneye]

All the stats from every agency has Carlos as a hurricane.



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2009 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 10:26:59 N Lon : 117:02:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.0mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -56.0C Cloud Region Temp : -64.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt04E.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS a tad underinitialized, but does have it. Loses it along the way. Back to what appears to be an open wave.




Hawai'i near the end of the ridge in a week.



Shear not bad where prog'd Carlos wave is, but 45 knot winds over Hawai'i. Of course, Carlos feature would be in upward motion side of the 45 knot winds, and if Carlos is a hurricane, who knows how its attendant anticyclone would affect 250 mb trough over Hawai'i?

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS has more of a zonal pattern as the shear is from a direction of 290. I tend to believe the GFDL and would not be surprised to see a similar evolution of Flossie

[cycloneye]

The eye is more clear,meaning its getting stronger by the hour.I say 70-75 kts at the 2 PM PDT advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at that and trends, I'd say 70-75 kt now, with rapid deepening underway.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like a small eye that is sharper with each passing hour.

Is there a reason why the GFS is still initializing Carlos as a open wave (or sometimes not even there at all) but continuing to show the remnants of TS Blanca as a tropical storm?