ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[gatorcane]

I think the main reason this was not upgrade is due to alot of dry air still out ahead of it which caused it to weaken to wave from a TD in the first place. In addition the 18Z GFS really ends up opening it back up to a wave. Rather than upgrade it now and then potentially downgrade it again later on this weekend, better give it a night to see how it looks in the AM. Also no need to send a cone towards alot of land areas such as the NE Leewards, Bahamas, and Southern FL, just yet (although that is where it is headed)

In addition it should be no surprise that it generally heads west towards these areas. The model guidance has been suggesting this path for a couple of days now as has the HPC discussion. A ridge is building in across the Western Atlantic starting this weekend into next week. That has been well advertised so far.

I'm still more concerned about 90L -- it should eventually put this thing to its death in the end. It's just a matter of time.

[Derek Ortt]

new GFS has it as a wave within 24 hours as well

[boca]

Most of the convection has been pushed SW, it doesn't look as good as 90L.

[Air Force Met]

new GFS has it as a wave within 24 hours as well

How many hurricanes does the GFS open up into a wave?

Its not going to open up into a wave in 24 hours. I think it will lose the convection again....but not like before. it will pulse up and down for a day or so before it gets its sea legs.

Bottom line: Its a TD and if it was sitting in the middle of the Gulf...it would be a TD...with or without recon data.

[Air Force Met]

I think the main reason this was not upgrade is due to alot of dry air still out ahead of it which caused it to weaken to wave from a TD in the first place.

It was never a wave. It has always had a closed low after downgrade. It was downgraded to a remnant low due to lack of convection.

[Derek Ortt]

I agree it is likely to develop. However, I see more slow development, keeping TS through 5 days for the time being

The one behind... that one I see taking off

[wxman57]

Speaking of wave, I'm waving good night to all. Could get a call at 4am to assist the on-duty forecaster if the NHC suddenly feels the need to upgrade both TD 2 and 90L.

[Air Force Met]

I agree it is likely to develop. However, I see more slow development, keeping TS through 5 days for the time being

The one behind... that one I see taking off

Agree. 2 may take off after their paths separate. But given it is small...it may just take off anyway. 90L is what I am worried about too. Think it will be my first real headache of the season. We are already pre-positioning assets to the islands (VIPR) just in case.

Gonna be a long week. I hate long trackers.

[Air Force Met]

Speaking of wave, I'm waving good night to all. Could get a call at 4am to assist the on-duty forecaster if the NHC suddenly feels the need to upgrade both TD 2 and 90L.

Why is it you are always complaining this time of year? You don't here all of us other salary guys complaining.

lol...

[wxman57]

Speaking of wave, I'm waving good night to all. Could get a call at 4am to assist the on-duty forecaster if the NHC suddenly feels the need to upgrade both TD 2 and 90L.

Why is it you are always complaining this time of year? You don't here all of us other salary guys complaining.

lol...

Not complaining, ready for some action. Just noting that it's late and I could get a call at 3:45am. My team can handle the work this weekend. Next weekend will be another story. I plan to work all next weekend. Hopefully 90L won't be a major threat to land.

Nite.

[gatorcane]

One of these is likely to be upgraded by the time most wake up tomorrow AM --- (hint: 90L)

So WxMan, you may just be getting the wake-up call early -- wouldn't suprise me at all.

[srainhoutx]

Speaking of wave, I'm waving good night to all. Could get a call at 4am to assist the on-duty forecaster if the NHC suddenly feels the need to upgrade both TD 2 and 90L.

Why is it you are always complaining this time of year? You don't here all of us other salary guys complaining.

lol...

[Stormsfury]

new GFS has it as a wave within 24 hours as well

Sure sign of a developing storm now ...

Seriously, after having some good burger King myself, I'm ready to go into some details.

Yes, there is dry air out ahead of the "renmant low". There is some poleward outflow on the NW side of the former 2, and restricted elsewhere. (Unrelated) Large scale surface westerly winds in association with a monsoon trough south of 10ºN. Bill Read, director of the TPC is a straight-forward by the books kinda director and conservative like Avila. Really it boils down to persistence with it. I'm about 90% sure myself right now, that former 2 is in fact, has enough convective activity around a center of circulation to be classified as a tropical depression, but #2 also has had a track record of up/down/up/down. Currently, no imminent threat, so no rush, and its likely more of a clear persistence before upgrade.

Also, if I was to issue an advisory as a tropical depression, the end of the 5 day forecast period would have it uncomfortably close to Florida, albeit only as a moderate tropical storm.

90L is really amping up some convection further south and east of where convection was earlier and presumably closer to a suspected low level center. Cloud tops have cooled at times close to -75º and holding up rather well, but still a bit of modest easterly shear still resides over it. Probably sometime on Saturday before an upgrade occurs, should convection persist and become even more symmetrical.

[jasons2k]

Thank you pro mets for your insight tonight

[Air Force Met]

Speaking of wave, I'm waving good night to all. Could get a call at 4am to assist the on-duty forecaster if the NHC suddenly feels the need to upgrade both TD 2 and 90L.

Why is it you are always complaining this time of year? You don't here all of us other salary guys complaining.

lol...

Be nice if I learned how to spell. Here=hear.

Yikes.

Anyway...I know what wxman means. My bosses always want to know why I get geeked up over this stuff (they are fighter pilots). I tell them: What's more fun? Sitting in the plane on the ramp...or pulling 9 g's and killing bad guys?

They understand that logic.

[MWatkins]

WX at least you won't have much time to post if he's going to be pulling all-nighters!

I find it hard to believe this system is just going to go away. It has maintained a very well defined circulation even under some very hostile conditions.

Not comparing, but remember Katrina stuggled across the Atlantic and was actually numbered twice before it developed in the Bahamas. And Andrew was a nasty swirl that survived the most the mid-oceanic trough could muster (in an El Nino year).

These are the systems that scare me the most. These little ones that hang in there under very hostile conditions...

MW

[jasons2k]

Bill Read, director of the TPC is a straight-forward by the books kinda director and conservative like Avila. Really it boils down to persistence with it.

You nailed it right here IMO

[wxman57]

Ok, 1 more post. Here's a satellite/sfc plot showing TD 2 passing the buoy. Pressure dropped from 1010.7 to 1006.4mb in past 2 hours:

[JPmia]

that little thing looks like a buzz saw in the making

[Air Force Met]

Ok, 1 more post. Here's a satellite/sfc plot showing TD 2 passing the buoy. Pressure dropped from 1010.7 to 1006.4mb in past 2 hours:

Ok...<=1006MB (and given its 20 knots...its probably at least 1005 or less)...and no TD?

Wow.