ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[RL3AO]

Major Props to the GFS for nailing this scenario perfectly. Once again the haters and the Euro fan boys are eating there hats

Fanboys? They aren't gaming consoles.

[Weatherfreak000]

(Does everyone need to post these pointless graphics all the time? Just wondering..)


TD 3 certainly doesnt look too hot to me right now....but the convection is basically sustaining...so I would hope to see another major flareup overnight that would definitely bring TS Classification.

[Ivanhater]

you know what it means... farther west

CMC again has the Euro recurve and again it is absurredly slow. Doesn't cross 40W until after 0Z Monday. It is likely to cross 40W by 12Z tomorrow!

The models do not handle the SAL and the easterly wind surge well at all, and it is showing here

Yeah, also reading Jeff Masters post, he agrees with you. He notes the models didn't consolidate the center correctly as the center formed further south. Regardless, the long range will continue to flip imo.

[JTD]

Major Props to the GFS for nailing this scenario perfectly. Once again the haters and the Euro fan boys are eating there hats

YES!! The GFS hate is tiresome. It nails storms time and time again. Totally agree with this. It's a great model. Did this for Dean as well.

[fci]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

Looks like Ana and TD3 are connected.

Looks like brother and sister holding hands to me.

[Gustywind]

you know what it means... farther west

CMC again has the Euro recurve and again it is absurredly slow. Doesn't cross 40W until after 0Z Monday. It is likely to cross 40W by 12Z tomorrow!

The models do not handle the SAL and the easterly wind surge well at all, and it is showing here

Yeah, also reading Jeff Masters post, he agrees with you. He notes the models didn't consolidate the center correctly as the center formed further south. Regardless, the long range will continue to flip imo.

Yeah and again put pressure on all the Leewards even if Northern Wind?...if i have understand.

[KWT]

TD3 needs to gain some more convection however no doubt its still decent enough.

Models now trying to recurve it still but as other shave noted, the models have a very poor grip on the forward speed it appears.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Major Props to the GFS for nailing this scenario perfectly. Once again the haters and the Euro fan boys are eating there hats

YES!! The GFS hate is tiresome. It nails storms time and time again. Totally agree with this. It's a great model. Did this for Dean as well.

Amen I see the laughs in the models thread. Ya we all know the GFS is silly 6 Days out. But what model isnt. GFS is always the one to watch for potential.

[robbielyn]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

Looks like Ana and TD3 are connected.

Yes what is it this connection?

[attallaman]

OT: As I read these posts the term "recurve" is mentioned a lot. Does the term "recurve" mean the same thing as "poleward" like the storm is headed "poleward" or "north"?

[Derek Ortt]

the 0Z CMC had this at 32.0W at 0Z tonight

the 12Z speed is not much quicker. This is what the models are spewing out there. This seems like an Ivan where old fashioned synoptic reasoning may be needed

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe it's starting to eat Ana.

[KWT]

As Derek has correctly said the models are stupidly too slow and thats going to have a big impact on the track.

GFS 12z won't be far off but I think its a touch too far north, we shall see!

[KWT]

I'm not sure but its a pretty cool feature regardless.

I still think this has to be a major threat to the Leeward islands, the models are starting to break down the ridge a little sooner again longer range but we shall see, all depends on speed.

[BensonTCwatcher]

you know what it means... farther west

CMC again has the Euro recurve and again it is absurredly slow. Doesn't cross 40W until after 0Z Monday. It is likely to cross 40W by 12Z tomorrow!

The models do not handle the SAL and the easterly wind surge well at all, and it is showing here

That is very reasonable. I don't see how you could write an algorithm that accounts for all the different variations and interactions possible from SAL and dry air. Dynamic models or not it, I suspect it will be a while before models can pin down a storm completely. Still need folks with experience watching and adjusting forecasts.

[Brent]

Maybe it's starting to eat Ana.

That's my thought. It looks like moisture from Ana is feeding into this from my view.

The visible imagery continues to look amazing. I don't think Bill is far off.

[thetruesms]

you know what it means... farther west

CMC again has the Euro recurve and again it is absurredly slow. Doesn't cross 40W until after 0Z Monday. It is likely to cross 40W by 12Z tomorrow!

The models do not handle the SAL and the easterly wind surge well at all, and it is showing here

That is very reasonable. I don't see how you could write an algorithm that accounts for all the different variations and interactions possible from SAL and dry air. Dynamic models or not it, I suspect it will be a while before models can pin down a storm completely. Still need folks with experience watching and adjusting forecasts.

Selfishly, I hope it never happens. The day humans are no longer able to add skill to a model forecast is the day I'm out of a career.

[KWT]

The thing that will be interesting is Ana will show us if there are any ULL's before hand as we will see if it gets sheared. If it does get hit then it shows us that TD3's strength forecast coulfd be overdone as they are following very similar tracks.

[robbielyn]

what is the difference between the leewards and the lesser antilles?
or are they the same island chain?

[RL3AO]

what is the difference between the leewards and the lesser antilles?
or are they the same island chain?

The Leeward Islands are the northern part of the Lesser Antilles.