ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Gustywind]

TD3

[gatorcane]

12Z now out to 10 days. Moves future Bill into the Bahamas and it seems to hit a brick wall, pulling northward missing Florida.

A trough comes down at the last minute and picks up Bill and Claudette sending them Northward. Amazing if that verified. Talk about getting lucky....

[Brent]

Hits Canada again(closer to Maine than the 6z):

[Scorpion]

Hmm.. if that occurred 100 miles west that'd be pretty nasty

[Gustywind]

May I ask, what the heck is that behind future Bill here......?

Strong wave coming off Africa

Strong is an euphemisma...


Looks like a monster wave

[Gustywind]

You want more?

[Scorpion]

Yes.. it will be interesting to see if other models latch on to it

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: You want more?

Looks like the trio is getting bigger and bigger 1, 2, 3 progressive menu

[Tropicswatcher]

:uarrow: You want more?

It has better thunderstorm activity than TS ANA or TD #3!

[Gustywind]

Yes.. it will be interesting to see if other models latch on to it

Yeah as FISH that will be great
We love that near the Lesser Antilles...

[Sanibel]

Hmmm. Warming on AVN loop:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[thetruesms]

TD3 just has the "look"

The monsoon trough which I talked about briefly about 3 am this morning which has partially aided with the large circulation envelope of now TD #3 has given this TC more of a look of what developing typhoons look like in the WPAC.

That's EXACTLY what it looks like! The visible imagery is much more impressive than the IR to me because you can really see the storm taking shape. It's dramatically improved even since last night.

I agree - it's fun to watch that broad circulation gradually tighten up in the way that Three is doing now. NE quadrant could look better, but it's still pretty.

Brings up all those issues of trying to enjoy the beauty of a meteorological phenomenon happening right in front of us while knowing what could possibly lay ahead

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: You want more?

It has better thunderstorm activity than TS ANA or TD #3!

For that...no words that: Is that Claudette?

[Ivanhater]

Hmm I wonder what was up with the Accu pro. Anyways, after flipping to a gulf scenario yesterday, today seems to be flipping to a recurve. As others have said, something seems odd about the speed but I suspect things will continue to flip in the long range.

[jimvb]

The 2009 Aug 15 12Z GFS run shows a frontal system across the Appalachians. It goes to the coast and strengthens considerably. TD3 and the storm behind it arrive at the same time. TD3 approaches Florida, but then the frontal system, TD3, and the storm behind it all go straight north, miss the coast, and get whisked away into the north Atlantic. After that, the entire eastern US (exc NY, New England) is cleared of any precipitation - all white. It reminds me of our hummingbirds. One feeds on a feeder, then two more come, causing all three to fly away.

[gatorcane]

The 2009 Aug 15 12Z GFS run shows a frontal system across the Appalachians. It goes to the coast and strengthens considerably. TD3 and the storm behind it arrive at the same time. TD3 approaches Florida, but then the frontal system, TD3, and the storm behind it all go straight north, miss the coast, and get whisked away into the north Atlantic. After that, the entire eastern US (exc NY, New England) is cleared of any precipitation - all white. It reminds me of our hummingbirds. One feeds on a feeder, then two more come, causing all three to fly away.

Yeah if this verified it would be the story of this season --- an amazing last minute turn to deflect two seemingly threatening long tracker Cape Verde systems (one a major hurricane) away from Florida and the CONUS. It's almost as if TD 3 hits a wall near the Bahamas and just east of FL....and stops then turns away. But --- the GFS seems a bit slow on this run (it has pushed the timeframe out to 200+ hours now), and could explain the timing we are seeing. This is all going to come down to timing and its so far out its likely to change again and again.

[Derek Ortt]

the 12Z model consensus had this at 35.7W at 0Z... that's not verifying!

[Blown Away]

the 12Z model consensus had this at 35.7W at 0Z... that's not verifying!

So are you saying this is moving faster than predicted and what does that mean long term?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Major Props to the GFS for nailing this scenario perfectly. Once again the haters and the Euro fan boys are eating there hats

[Derek Ortt]

you know what it means... farther west

CMC again has the Euro recurve and again it is absurredly slow. Doesn't cross 40W until after 0Z Monday. It is likely to cross 40W by 12Z tomorrow!

The models do not handle the SAL and the easterly wind surge well at all, and it is showing here