ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Sanibel]

The key is the band to the SE. That was separate before and part of the ITCZ that kept going east unentrained. It's now curving into the center. That can only mean one thing.

[deltadog03]

TD3 just has the "look"

[Hurricaneman]

12zgfs into the gulf making landfall in pensicola which is putting this model farther apart from the others

[Ivanhater]

12zgfs into the gulf making landfall in pensicola which is putting this model farther apart from the others

huh? It's out already? btw it's Pensacola

[Brent]

12zgfs into the gulf making landfall in pensicola which is putting this model farther apart from the others

I only see out to 66...



114... passing just north of the islands

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, they are all showing a recurve of some sort - after passing very close to the islands...

We'll see...

A recurve forecasted this far out may have very little accuracy....I've seen countless forecasts of recurves never pan out.

[Stormsfury]

TD3 just has the "look"

The monsoon trough which I talked about briefly about 3 am this morning which has partially aided with the large circulation envelope of now TD #3 has given this TC more of a look of what developing typhoons look like in the WPAC.

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

Hey you cheated

TD #3 direct hit on Southern FL there based on that graphic with something else behind it.

[AnnularCane]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

Looks like Ana and TD3 are connected.

[x-y-no]

This run of the GFS is suspiciously slow with the movement of TD3 ... I have a hard time buying it.

[Brent]

So it shifted west... not surprised.

Would expect more shifts both ways over the next few days. I'm not ruling out any track at this point.

[gatorcane]

May I ask, what the heck is that behind future Bill here......? Seriously if this pans out, there is going to be some long nights monitoring this situation. They both are marching westward.

[Scorpion]

May I ask, what the heck is that behind future Bill here......?

Strong wave coming off Africa

[gatorcane]

so if the GFS verifies, Southern FL will be impacted by three consecutive (A,B, and C) systems in the next two weeks.

Ana (as a remant low/wave though)
Bill (possibly a major hurricane)
Claudette? (not sure yet)

[Brent]

May I ask, what the heck is that behind future Bill here......? Seriously if this pans out, there is going to be some long nights monitoring this situation. They both are marching westward.

Claudette?

[tolakram]

It's also taking on a much more circular look, rather than the oval. Now that the storms have seemed to consolidate near a new location it will be interesting to see if convection increases rapidly or not.

[Brent]

TD3 just has the "look"

The monsoon trough which I talked about briefly about 3 am this morning which has partially aided with the large circulation envelope of now TD #3 has given this TC more of a look of what developing typhoons look like in the WPAC.

That's EXACTLY what it looks like! The visible imagery is much more impressive than the IR to me because you can really see the storm taking shape. It's dramatically improved even since last night.

[Scorpion]

Yes.. once it gets out of the dry air it should blow up really nicely

[gatorcane]

Kudos to the GFS -- it nailed this system nearly two weeks ago and has been dead on with the track, even from runs nearly 10+ days ago.