ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Frank2]

Just a suggestion (hold on to your hat), but...

Perhaps the HRD folks should make the classification (since they are out of the loop public-wise), and the NHC folks should do the actual forecasting...

Yipes

P.S. I know that would go over as well as an anvil at a pillow convention, but...

[Brent]

Where are the models, plots right now for TD3...???

[Evil Jeremy]

Where are the models, plots right now for TD3...???

[Thunder44]

there is no way one can upgrade this to a tropical storm with its current convective pattern

Based solely on the it's current appearance, I don't really disagree. But it's look better than Ana now.

[Frank2]

Well, they are all showing a recurve of some sort - after passing very close to the islands...

We'll see...

[Sanibel]

I think GFS was not reading the dry air when it made those big monsters in its early runs.


Disregard GFDL left outlier on weak systems. Wait a few days.

[Lurker]

Just a suggestion (hold on to your hat), but...

Perhaps the HRD folks should make the classification (since they are out of the loop public-wise), and the NHC folks should do the actual forecasting...

Yipes

P.S. I know that would go over as well as an anvil at a pillow convention, but...

Darn Frank - I always enjoy seeing your name on posts because you usually bring good news (bad news for those wanting storms). I was hoping I'd get "this storm is being sheared to death" or "it looks like it is going fishing" lol.

[Gustywind]

Where are the models, plots right now for TD3...???

Tkanks my friends i appreciate, i don't have the link that's why . Have you got the link please?

[gatorcane]

The track up through the islands looks alot like this system if you ask me....with that WSW dip then WNW movement.

****NOTE: I'm not suggesting it will do anything like this system did though

[Brent]

Where are the models, plots right now for TD3...???

Tkanks my friends i appreciate, i don't have the link that's why . Have you got the link please?

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_03

[storm4u]

I think anyone rom maine to texas will have to watch this one my best guess says it will impact the southeast from florida to north carolina though

[Frank2]

Darn Frank - I always enjoy seeing your name on posts because you usually bring good news (bad news for those wanting storms). I was hoping I'd get "this storm is being sheared to death" or "it looks like it is going fishing" lol.

I know - actually, as others said Ana/TD2 is in danger of being downgraded once again (yay), and as for TD3, well, it's too early to tell, but as the professional folks here said, it's organization is still not the best, so, we'll see...

Also, some (I haven't had the chance to check) are talking about an East Coast trough that'd be good news when it comes to them recurving east of Florida, so, hopefully some will respond to that comment...

That's about as good a guess that I can dream up at this point (LOL)..

Frank

P.S. Usually I won't post when the forecast doesn't look good (for us), since everyone else is jumping up and down, and I'd be considered a wet blanket of sorts, but not to worry - each situation is different, and this is no exception, since the high to the north is only going to be weak at best (compared to the Andrew case, when the high was very strong), and both Ana and TD3 are fighting dry air, so...

[gatorcane]

Frank I love your optimism. I still think TD #3 is going to be the big story down the road. You are right, the ridging may not be as strong as Andrew but TD #3 would be coming at us much more from the South than Andrew which came at us from the ENE. So a prolonged period of WNW movement under a moderately strong to weak ridge into the Bahamas is possible......

Even so check out the UKMET, notice the west bend at the end. It may mean it is sniffing out the ridging building in strong towards the end is my guess.

[Frank2]

Looking at this loop, it's easy to see that both Ana and TD3 are struggling over the past few days (never mind that wave about to come off Africa), so it seems the large-scale environment (per the current Ana TCD) isn't "ideal", since they both seem to get better organized - only to weaken again (setting the loop to slow makes this more obvious):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[jasons2k]

I think it's poised to really burst tonight after sunset. I'm taking a break for now because I think it's going to be a long night tonight...

[Sanibel]

Climatology is the wild card. Each day represents a significant improvement in favorability.

[Frank2]

Hi gatorcane,

Well, it doesn't hurt to be hopeful, but if it's grim, then so be it...

At least at this point there are still many factors (apparently intensity forecasting isn't the only weak link at the NHC, since they noted the Ana shear that wasn't forecast), so, there are many things that could still make a difference, and I agree with the others that TD3 still isn't very impressive, so it's still early...

Hurricane season - oy vey...

Frank

P.S. I'm a thunderstorm fan (much bigger season for them), but was also fascinated by hurricanes, as most people are (though TRW are still my main enjoyment)...

[Sanibel]

Present core behavior on TD3 suggests development.

[Brent]

Looking at this loop, it's easy to see that both Ana and TD3 are struggling over the past few days (never mind that wave about to come off Africa), so it seems the large-scale environment (per the current Ana TCD) isn't "ideal", since they both seem to get better organized - only to weaken again (setting the loop to slow makes this more obvious):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

Eh, I'll give you that Ana is struggling but TD 3 is well on it's way. Yeah the convection isn't as cold as it was but that's just typical fluctuations for a developing system. This system has great structure and outflow and looks like many developing systems that went on to become more notable.

[Frank2]

I'll step back for now, but wanted to mention that I also did see some inner-banding of TD3, but it's still fairly convection-free in it's northern semi-circle...

Frank

P.S. Oh, well - the OCM's and going to be jumping up and down, mentioning the "double trouble" byline, etc....

Guess I'll watch TVLand...