ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

Compared to the size of TS Ana,this system is three times bigger.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no way one can upgrade this to a tropical storm with its current convective pattern

[Gustywind]

Compared to the size of TS Ana,this system is three times bigger.

And it's an euphemisma Cycloneye

[sargeabernathy]

NRL Website has Depression 3 up if you ask to view all the storms for 2009.

Can't wait for the slew of "Kill Bill" images up on fark.com once Bill shows up in the future

[MGC]

Looks to me that 90L has acquired sufficient convective organization to be upgraded to TD status. NO way it is a TS yet......MGC

[jimvb]

Someone said that the 2009 Aug 15 06Z GFS run is weird. To me it shows some hurricane courtship, that is if these storms do indeed become Bill and Claudette. Bill saunters off to Florida, but Claudette is fast on the heels of Bill. She overtakes Bill and shows her love for Bill by forming a heart on Hour 228, 2009 Aug 24 1800. Then all at once the chase reverses and Bill chases Claudette into the north Atlantic.

[sargeabernathy]

Naw. All indications are that it's not a TS yet, and they aren't planning on making it a TS. It's the third cyclone though, and I think they'll upgrade it to Depression 3 soon

It's still putting itself together. Can't be a TS yet.

[Iune]

WE have TD3
000
WTNT33 KNHC 151434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.5N 34.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


000
WTNT23 KNHC 151434
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

904
WTNT33 KNHC 151434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.5N 34.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


WTNT23 KNHC 151434
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 34.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING
TRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
265/15. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT
SPAWNED IT. OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS
AROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...
WHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.

THE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96
HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 11.5N 34.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 11.3N 36.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 11.3N 38.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 11.8N 41.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.4N 44.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 14.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 57.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 63.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

[jinftl]

Forecast to be a Cat 2 at end of current 5-day forecast.

[CrazyC83]

That shows a lot of similarities to some other B storm 11 years ago...

[wxman57]

there is no way one can upgrade this to a tropical storm with its current convective pattern

Derek, Derek, Derek. I have one word against that argument - Felicia.

NHC can do whatever they want. They called Felicia a TS for a day or more after it lost its convection completely.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no way one can upgrade this to a tropical storm with its current convective pattern

Derek, Derek, Derek. I have one word against that argument - Felicia.

NHC can do whatever they want. They called Felicia a TS for a day or more after it lost its convection completely.

that was CPHC, lol

[wxman57]

there is no way one can upgrade this to a tropical storm with its current convective pattern

Derek, Derek, Derek. I have one word against that argument - Felicia.

NHC can do whatever they want. They called Felicia a TS for a day or more after it lost its convection completely.

that was CPHC, lol

But it proves my point. Too much politics in these classifications. I vote for an independent agency to classify systems. One that has no contact with the public or emergency management officials. A storm is what it is - deal with the intensity fluctuations, forecasters.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I am now explicitly forecasting development within 12-24 hours. see analysis forum

Maybe one day I'll grow up into a real met like you Derek.

My forecast to my wife last weekend about the wave coming through SFL was a bust as far as rain, and of course I forecast the wave coming through today, and last night was met with "yeah right, just like last weekend dole".

In any case, TD3 looking VERY good this AM. I see what I thought was erosion or stable air to its north has moved out, and banding evening out over the system, yesterday at this time the north side looking poor while the south end was blowing up.

[JPmia]

But it proves my point. Too much politics in these classifications. I vote for an independent agency to classify systems. One that has no contact with the public or emergency management officials. A storm is what it is - deal with the intensity fluctuations, forecasters.[/quote]

Sort of like the 'Federal Reserve' of tropical weather forecasting.

[Gustywind]

Where are the models, plots right now for TD3...???

[gatorcane]

why wasn't this upgraded last night instead of ex-TD #2? Just makes no sense to me. Ana looks to be on the verge of getting downgraded yet again as dry air is tearing into it.