ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Aric Dunn]

both pf you have valid arguments of course.. and although we have much weaker surface feature now and fairly stable air surrounding it. this does not mean a tropical wave cannot find a better environment 1,2 3 odays down the road. I am baffled by some on here and their apparent disregard to not only to NHC but simply the pure physics involved. one cannot determine with absolute certainty any scenario and thus all waves have a possibility to develop and be a threat. too many times over my nearly 6 years on here have I heard amateur and pro mets say with certainty something will happen just to have it do the exact opposite this happens probably in the range of 60 to 80 percent of the time. what i cant figure out is why it still happens. I have a theory why most say things for certainty.. and thats for recognition.. if their right people remember if their wrong they can shrug it off..

the fact is we have a strong wave in September with no real out of the ordinary inhibiting factors that we have not seen systems develop from in the past. simply put the real professionals I.E the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER which is made up of the best of the best and they says there is still a possibility even if its 1% chance. end of story. which means we still need to watch it..

[Gustywind]

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 17, 2009 5:16 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
In the Atlantic, the remnant circulation of Fred was located about 450 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, while continuing to move west.

Although some shower and thunderstorm activity continues to flair up, upper-level winds are rather hostile and are not conducive for any tropical development.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED....ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

There's not much left but a very weak tropical wave with almost no convection today. Regeneration appears highly unlikely.

[Gustywind]

Hurddles of shear...not an easy trip

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[boca]

Even though Ex Fred is no longer a depression the wave is still producing convection and I'm not writing this off until it goes completely poof. I'm getting more concerned because high pressure is suppose to build down from the mid Atlantic which would prevent a recurvature.Also Ex Fred if it stays and its present course would head for S Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[ozonepete]

There's not much left but a very weak tropical wave with almost no convection today. Regeneration appears highly unlikely.

Agreed.

[wxman57]

Now I think it's really time to get weak wave, non-invest Fred out of the Active Storms section and back to Talkin' Tropics.

[srainhoutx]

Now I think it's really time to get weak wave, non-invest Fred out of the Active Storms section and back to Talkin' Tropics.

Where is 'Bones' these days?

[Aric Dunn]

amazingly there is still a small weak circ there in the low to mid levels.. .. still needs to be watched... till its gone..

[Aric Dunn]

See look.. nice small tight little circ .. hehe ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

probably wont amount to much but something to watch ..

[ozonepete]

See look.. nice small tight little circ .. hehe ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

probably wont amount to much but something to watch ..

LOL! You are funny, Aric. And you're definitely right - I see that little closed circle plain as day. It's like a 50s horror movie: The Thing That Wouldn't Die...

[KUEFC]

What gets me about this place, is nobody ever seems to listen to the pro mets.

[Steve H.]

Well, there's nothing else to watch Time to start looking towards the western Caribbean. We'll see if that sprawling high the Globals have been advertising settle things done a bit so the shear might ease.....maybe.

[HURAKAN]

What gets me about this place, is nobody ever seems to listen to the pro mets.

Everyone listens to the pro-mets but the amateurs also have the opportunity to express what they think. Sometimes they express facts and other times is just wishful thinking. This is forum where everyone has the same chance to express what they think. We always encourage to listen to what the experts say but that doesn't mean that they're always correct.

[Gustywind]

[ozonepete]

What gets me about this place, is nobody ever seems to listen to the pro mets.

Everyone listens to the pro-mets but the amateurs also have the opportunity to express what they think. Sometimes they express facts and other times is just wishful thinking. This is forum where everyone has the same chance to express what they think. We always encourage to listen to what the experts say but that doesn't mean that they're always correct.

Thanks for saying that, Hurakan. We've been talking about Fred cause he was all we had in the Atlantic, but we were still learning things which is the main point.

[Evil Jeremy]

What gets me about this place, is nobody ever seems to listen to the pro mets.

Its called freedom of speech lol. We have the right to disagree with them, which is nice since it causes debate. If we all agreed with each other, we would just be posting observations but no opinions, which can make a place very dry.