ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI (10L)

[Blown Away]

Can somebody explain what "unfavorable conditions" are in front of 91L? Sorry for my ignorance, but I'm looking at the WV loop and see that the wind shear that we have been seeing ripping through the Caribbean has finally let up.

I can say this because I don't see any high-clouds racing off to the ENE that I have been seeing the past 6 weeks or so. Is it dry air that should kill 91L?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

the biggest issue will be shear down the road as the trough pulls off the east coast a huge ridge is forecast to build in at all levels which should in part northwesterly shear.. so watch the evolution of that feature and how far south it dives..

I'm not sure I'm buying 91L moving to almost 21N/60W then diving back down to 15N/66W.

[Gustywind]

Everybody keeps saying this is going into the Caribbean, models suggesting NE of the Caribbean.

Let's wait and see what could happen my friend , Caribbean or NE of Caribbean it's always a probability towards the Caribbean...even if it's not even a TD. Way to early to verify a final track (Carib or NE) for the moment Blown Away, don't you tkink that? Hope for your thoughts and prayers to protect and blessed the islands. We do not want to deal with more than a strong TWAVE bringing nice rain showers for the plants, etc.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty curved band developing..

it maybe a little farther along in development than i previously thought ...

[Gustywind]

[MGC]

Yes, 91L's satellite signature has improved today with cyclonic turning evident in the visible loop. Looks to be a mid level circulation though. ULL noted near 28N 48W appears to be moving ENE which should lessen shear for a couple of day. It appears 91L will be in an area favorable for continued development in the short term. Chances are increasing for 91L to become a TC in the coming days......MGC

[cycloneye]

Aric,floater is up

[Aric Dunn]

sweet..

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/ATL/91L.INVEST/CloudSat/amsre/20091005.1636.cloudsat.94GHz.radar_prof.91LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-137N-465W.FL.jpg

Looking good

I think that most, if not all, of the S2K members in the NE Caribbean who are very concerned about a potential impact would not say that a disturbance becoming better organized with a greater chance of developing into a life-threatening tropical cyclone is "looking good". "Looking good" to them would mean that it's dissipating.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/ATL/91L.INVEST/CloudSat/amsre/20091005.1636.cloudsat.94GHz.radar_prof.91LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-137N-465W.FL.jpg

Looking good

I think that most, if not all, of the S2K members in the NE Caribbean who are very concerned about a potential impact would not say that a disturbance becoming better organized with a greater chance of developing into a life-threatening tropical cyclone is "looking good".

The bolded and italicized part of your statement is what "looking good" means.

I know all about the fact that this could endanger people's lives and everything.

[Macrocane]

What is looking good is the system itself, not the possible scenario. And if it was a cat 5, it would look great because tropical cyclones are beautiful nature wonders we cannot deny that, their consequences are not great but that's another story.

[cycloneye]

Good loop of 91L.Look at the curved clouds wrapping.

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/ATL/91L.INVEST/CloudSat/amsre/20091005.1636.cloudsat.94GHz.radar_prof.91LINVEST.30kts-1007mb-137N-465W.FL.jpg

Looking good

I think that most, if not all, of the S2K members in the NE Caribbean who are very concerned about a potential impact would not say that a disturbance becoming better organized with a greater chance of developing into a life-threatening tropical cyclone is "looking good".

The bolded and italicized part of your statement is what "looking good" means.

I know all about the fact that this could endanger people's lives and everything.

And how in the world is that "looking good"? You might consider just stating that it looks better organized without making an opinion as to whether it looks good or not. My clients tell me that I've had that problem in the past, saying that a disturbance is "looking better today" or "looking more promising" when that's certainly not good for them. We have to control our enthusiasm when lives are at stake.

[HURAKAN]

Latest image

[cycloneye]

Sandy,any recent quickScat?

[HURAKAN]

Sandy,any recent quickScat?

No.

[cycloneye]

A 1007 mb low pressure has been added to the tropical wave at the 18:00z surface analysis.

[Blown Away]

I think that most, if not all, of the S2K members in the NE Caribbean who are very concerned about a potential impact would not say that a disturbance becoming better organized with a greater chance of developing into a life-threatening tropical cyclone is "looking good

And how in the world is that "looking good"? You might consider just stating that it looks better organized without making an opinion as to whether it looks good or not. My clients tell me that I've had that problem in the past, saying that a disturbance is "looking better today" or "looking more promising" when that's certainly not good for them. We have to control our enthusiasm when lives are at stake.

Wrong, Storm2k is not your clients and this is not an official forecast. This is a group of folks who love hurricanes, stop w/ the politically correct nonsense! Anybody that lives in the islands should not be offended by a post saying an invest is "looking good", on a tropical weather discussion board, give me a break! Wxman loosen up!!!

[terrapintransit]

Easy kids.......This is going to be a long thread...long way to go.

[HURAKAN]

Nice structure