ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[Stangfriik]

It's one of those years when activity is at a minimum (or the opposite of 2005), so it's a good thing...

I'm tempted to say the season's over, but it's too early for that...

Frank2

Yea even our local met said that it was unusual to see the westerlies firing up this heavy so soon. I'm glad though as the house we now live in loses power quite easily for some reason and I really could do without the heat and humidity that we had to endure in 2004

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

It doesn't matter, chcloneye. This system is heading out to sea well east of the Caribbean no matter where it starts out.

On high-res visible, I would put the center at 13Z near 12.3N/22.8W. Just in the past hour, I'm seeing a little more banding with some convection now east of the center. Lat/Lon at bottom of image represent crosshairs position.

i disagree with you toooo early for you and other call it a fish everyone on leedwards islands should still watch it next weekend you cannot go with early model run is not fish untill happen

[Shewtinstar]

So if it does become a hurricane, will it be a blow fish?

[jinftl]

Fanning out of the cloud pattern indicative of a developing system in a fairly low shear environment

[hurricanetrack]

I think I saw a crow fly by my window on its way to Texas.

All in good fun. No one lose their pants over this.

But hey, the 12Z GFS did show this getting waaaaay farther west than it looked like from the get go. And the longer it takes to develop.....blah blah blah....you know the drill.

[Jinkers]

So if this developes it goes north, like the rest did?

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[jinftl]

What will probably be Fred won't be like his wife Wilma....in either track or strength.

NOAA quite bullish on this going ahead and developing...almost all models show a sharp recurve later in the week.

So if this developes it goes north, like the rest did?

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

It doesn't matter, chcloneye. This system is heading out to sea well east of the Caribbean no matter where it starts out.

On high-res visible, I would put the center at 13Z near 12.3N/22.8W. Just in the past hour, I'm seeing a little more banding with some convection now east of the center. Lat/Lon at bottom of image represent crosshairs position.

i disagree with you toooo early for you and other call it a fish everyone on leedwards islands should still watch it next weekend you cannot go with early model run is not fish untill happen

What do you base your reasoning on? Wxman57 and for that matter others have already stated why they think this will happen. Why do you think it might not?

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 12z model package,GFS,GFDL,HWRF,NOGAPS,UKMET,CMC,Bams,ECMWF? I ask because I am without my PC for today as the keyboard is being repaired and I dont have links as I am on another PC.

[cycloneye]

I am relying on the information the members are posting and not by me as I normally do,because I am on another PC and I dont have links of all the things that I post.I hope to be on my PC later today. Looks like we will have TD 7 later this afternoon.

[jinftl]

I do agree that until a recurve has begun...esp before a system has even formed....closing the book on this one as a 'fish' is premature. That said, all available guidance that I have seen at this time show a recurve to the nw and north down the road. The spread is over what longitude it will do this at, 35W or 40w.

:uarrow: That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

It doesn't matter, chcloneye. This system is heading out to sea well east of the Caribbean no matter where it starts out.

On high-res visible, I would put the center at 13Z near 12.3N/22.8W. Just in the past hour, I'm seeing a little more banding with some convection now east of the center. Lat/Lon at bottom of image represent crosshairs position.

i disagree with you toooo early for you and other call it a fish everyone on leedwards islands should still watch it next weekend you cannot go with early model run is not fish untill happen

[CrazyC83]

What will probably be Fred won't be like his wife Wilma....in either track or strength.

Pretty hard when they are on opposite ends of the alphabet.

Note that this will be the third name in this sequence on the list - replacing Fabian, which itself replaced Frederic.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this could stay really low in latitude and pull an Ivan while avoiding the TUTT?

[Sanibel]

This one looks like it is already sheared from behind by the Saharan easterlies. If it moves west it will probably only head into the same dry air and shear ambush Erika encountered.

[Derek Ortt]

:uarrow: That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

It doesn't matter, chcloneye. This system is heading out to sea well east of the Caribbean no matter where it starts out.

On high-res visible, I would put the center at 13Z near 12.3N/22.8W. Just in the past hour, I'm seeing a little more banding with some convection now east of the center. Lat/Lon at bottom of image represent crosshairs position.

i disagree with you toooo early for you and other call it a fish everyone on leedwards islands should still watch it next weekend you cannot go with early model run is not fish untill happen

it is not too early to call this a miss. This one is clear as clear can be

[jinftl]

At his latitude, 96L has quite a stretch of what I would term low-to-moderate shear (15 to 20kts) ahead....nothing unheard of for slow development to occur. Erika ran into shear 2000 miles to the west.



There is shear out there.....but we are not talking a wall to wall coverage of continuous killer shear from cape verde to galveston...

This one looks like it is already sheared from behind by the Saharan easterlies. If it moves west it will probably only head into the same dry air and shear ambush Erika encountered.

[MGC]

If this misses that mid Atlantic trough then I will quit trying to figure out where these thing want to go. I think it is near TD status......MGC

[jinftl]

Atmospheric conditions....coupled with favorable water temps...suggest development given the location and likely path of 96L. I would put myself in the 'development-yes, fish-yes' camp.

[artist]

It's one of those years when activity is at a minimum (or the opposite of 2005), so it's a good thing...

I'm tempted to say the season's over, but it's too early for that...

Frank2

Yea even our local met said that it was unusual to see the westerlies firing up this heavy so soon. I'm glad though as the house we now live in loses power quite easily for some reason and I really could do without the heat and humidity that we had to endure in 2004

you must live in Palm Beach county! lol