#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:30 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
85.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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