#9823 Postby WxGuy1 » Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:02 am
RECON seems to indicate ~90 kts max sfc winds right now, and that's not much less than the reported max flight-level winds fro the past couple of hours. Remember, the ~955 mb (+/- 4 mb from the past 12 hours) pressure perturbation associated with Gustav is spread out over quite a large distance, a fact that can be inferred by the relatively large wind-field (trop storm winds out to 230 miles and hurricane force winds out to 70 miles from the center). If this were a smaller and more compact storm, 955 mb may be saying something, but it's not terribly low for a major hurricane that's as large as it is.
KLIX radar seems to indicate it's moving WNW, with an inner eyewall becoming more apparent over the past hour. It looks like the center of the storm is passing approximately 70 miles SW of New Orleans, and the closest approach to the city looks to be about 60 miles within the next hour or two, so the city shouldn't see any major problems with surge flooding. In fact, I don't think they will even see hurricane-force winds at ground level (certainly, the taller buildings will see strong winds!). The latest wind speed reading from a New Orleans-area METAR that I can find:
SPECI KNBG 011120Z AUTO 06038G58KT (New Orleans area)
SPECI KMSY 011114Z AUTO 04039G55KT (New Orleans area)
Other obs in SE LA:
METAR KPTN 011235Z AUTO 01024G36K
METAR KP92 011053Z AUTO 36019G28KT
Anemometers at many of the SE LA stations aren't reporting (including the NOLA ones). Regardless, I'm not sure NOLA will see >65 kt sustained winds at the surface (i.e. hurricane-force winds). My best-guess motion the past 100 minutes is 285-290.
Last edited by
WxGuy1 on Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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