ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm staring to doubt the upgrade of 94L. The lower level convergence that was to it's north has gone and convection has been limited all day. It would take some random convection burst to get the convergence going.

[PTrackerLA]

Well, looks like the clouds are decreasing...I'm starting to doubt this one developing as well now. If there isn't a good burst overnight I'd say it's toast.

[alan1961]

i would say the ITCZ is robbing this of convection really, its struggling at the moment, think it will finally break free in the overnight hours.

[wxman57]

Very good point wxman, as an official I can imagine you would have to think it through, but that would also work both ways if you would call it wrong. I guess one can't really win. I would also side with safety first regardless.. If it does form and threaten, your point still stands that you warned them with much ample time, since you can assume they will reserve the final decision to themselves regardless.

We've committed to notifying our clients of the possibility of a hurricane impact 7 days out. That means much of the time we'll have to notify them prior to the naming of a system. True, they won't make the most major decisions this far out, but it gives them time to prepare just in case they have to make the bit decision to shut down. We try to convey the probability of development and impact to them. Sometimes it's more likely than others. In this case, it's not an easy call.

[canegrl04]

I'll be ready to say good riddence to this thing if its not a TD by early morning .I'm getting very bored with it

[RL3AO]

i would say the ITCZ is robbing this of convection really, its struggling at the moment, think it will finally break free in the overnight hours.

It broke free of the ITCZ earlier today.


Also, sorry about Derby. Better luck in the Championship.

[jhamps10]

i would say the ITCZ is robbing this of convection really, its struggling at the moment, think it will finally break free in the overnight hours.

It broke free of the ITCZ earlier today.


Also, sorry about Derby. Better luck in the Championship.

Man for a minute i thought you was talking about the Home Run Derby, or I mean the Josh Hamilton show...

anyway even though it broke from ITCZ, IMO the moisture there is still hurting this thing.

[Jason_B]

Last night around this time the consensus was we'd have our next storm by now, now tonight the consensus is it's toast. What will it be tomorrow night? I say just sit back and watch what it does over the next day or so before writing it off.

[NDG]

Tough call tonight, if convection starts firing up in a couple of hours near the apparent LLC and keeps it up throught the morning good chance that it will become TD during the day tomorrow, if it is 5 AM and very convection refires, I give it very little chance of becoming a TD at least tomorrow, it might need a little bit more of UL divergence followed by some convergence to get some convection going soon. It has the organization, it just needs the spark to get convection firing up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The system is not looking quite as good to me right now as it did a couple of hours ago. I am starting to have some doubts about its future, but will wait to see what it does overnight before starting to disagree with the National Hurricane Center's current 50%+ development chance.

[boca]

b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because 94L isn't generating convection and just spinning along with the dry air this sytem should start to unravel by tomorrow.I guess the GFS was onto something last night on their 00z run.Tomorrow watch it form into a depression than storm and I'll eat crow.

[tolakram]

Nothing there.

[weatherguru18]

b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because 94L isn't generating convection and just spinning along with the dry air this sytem should start to unravel by tomorrow.I guess the GFS was onto something last night on their 00z run.Tomorrow watch it form into a depression than storm and I'll eat crow.

Hey, I've eaten plenty of crow over the years. It's not so bad after a while. LOL. Just add Bar-B-Que Sauce...it masks almost anything.

[alan1961]

i would say the ITCZ is robbing this of convection really, its struggling at the moment, think it will finally break free in the overnight hours.

It broke free of the ITCZ earlier today.


Also, sorry about Derby. Better luck in the Championship.

eye eye, do we have an englishman in the state of a thousand lakes? hows the vikings doing? much better than the Rams i suspect

[RL3AO]

i would say the ITCZ is robbing this of convection really, its struggling at the moment, think it will finally break free in the overnight hours.

It broke free of the ITCZ earlier today.


Also, sorry about Derby. Better luck in the Championship.

eye eye, do we have an englishman in the state of a thousand lakes? hows the vikings doing? much better than the Rams i suspect

Not English. Just a Spurs supporter. I have big hopes for the Vikings this year.

Also, its ten-thousand lakes, not a thousand.

[micktooth]

Help yourselves to some crow if need be, we've all had some in the past!

[Jason_B]

You know a invest is dying when the thread turns into sports chat.

[Brent]

Yep, I'm about to give up on this. Next please. Oh well, it's only July.

[cycloneye]

When the theme from the members switches to sports,then for all purposes its over. By the way,there is a nice area behind 94L,Check it out at TT.

[micktooth]

Does it even "Bear Watching"?