ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ed Mahmoud]

Why would they send recon to a system that obviously has no closed circulation yet?

We don't know for sure recon is going yet.

I rather expect they won't go.

The POD was late, but no mention of a mission cancel, as I've seen before when they decide not to fly...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 12 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-073

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROCACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42
       A. 13/1800Z
       B. NOAA2 03DDA CYCLONE
       C. 13/15OOZ
       D. 19.0N 56.5W
       E. 13/1630Z TO 13/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 13/1800Z, 14/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 04DDA CYCLONE
       C. 13/1515Z
       D. 19.0N 56.5W
       E. 13/1700Z TO 14/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43
       A. 14/0600Z
       B. NOAA3 05DDA CYCLONE
       C. 14/0300Z
       D. 20.0N 58.0W
       E. 14/0430Z TO 14/0930Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70
       A. 14/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 06DDA CYCLONE
       C. 14/0315Z
       D. 20.0N 58.0W
       E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
       P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                        JWP




[xironman]

"12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean"

Can someone help those of us who do not know about much about weather decipher that?

Time, location, and the Dvorak T numbers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[Blown Away]

Are the thin clouds moving towards the circulation between 12-13.5N and 52-53W low level convergence?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[MWatkins]

Looking at the latest satellite image (14:45z), it sure looks to me like a band is starting to develop arching from 16N 51W west-southwestward to about 15.2N 53W.

If this is the case, we may be seeing the low center closing off near the NHC position fix.

They are throwing the kitchen sink at this system recon wise...so perhaps they are thinking the same thing? Hard to say...but this is the first indication I have seen thus far that a center is trying to develop.

Thoughts?

MW

[alan1961]

Just recalling what Bastardi repeated about a week ago, early season would be Florida and points West, and Texas did have two TCs, heart of the season would be Florida and points North.


I suspect he may be on to something, from his studies of analog years, but we won't know until we know. JB has said 1954 is not the best match to this year, but he sees some similarities.


IIRC, Bob was the last significant hurricane in New England. No such thing as being due, I suppose, but if there were such a thing...

Hey, and guess what, 1954 had a Hurricane called Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

[deltadog03]

Mike, it appears that way as well. I guess recon is going out today. What time where they suppose to lift off?

[Derek Ortt]

The NOAA flights are tasked by EMC, not NHC. It's for HWRF

[GreenSky]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

Derek, why does the NHC still give 92L a better than 50% chance of developing?
And MW and DeltaDog are still very much interested in 92L.
Lastly, every single model indicates that 92L will make it into the Atlantic...why do you still think 92L will just be a Caribbean storm?

[deltadog03]

To further what MW was saying, it does appear that there is def. more turning now on that blob of storms. Still not sure if its at the SFC yet, but it does appear its trying.

[Sanibel]

The CDO is obviously intensifying on the latest visible loop. Tighter curling "band" on the south side and that hazy look.

Here we go.

[gatorcane]

To further what MW was saying, it does appear that there is def. more turning now on that blob of storms. Still not sure if its at the SFC yet, but it does appear its trying.

I noticed that also and made a comment about the blob turning above -- looks like the center is trying to form somewhere underneath the blob.

[cheezyWXguy]

To further what MW was saying, it does appear that there is def. more turning now on that blob of storms. Still not sure if its at the SFC yet, but it does appear its trying.

Im pretty sure theres no more turning than there was this morning. The only difference is that the sun is no longer obscuring the low clouds. This happened yesterday too

[Blown Away]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

The NHC gives 92L a High Probability of development, convection has been building since last night, there are signs of more defined circulation developing, and this is very close to the islands. Not sure how you can just disregard this system. Maybe 93L has a better chance IYO, but it's >1000 miles away from any land mass, I would think your focus should be on 92L until it is certain it will not develop. I'm sure folks in the BV Islands are concerned.

[GreenSky]

Mike, it appears that way as well. I guess recon is going out today. What time where they suppose to lift off?

Delta, what percentage chance do you give 92L to develop?
Derek Ortt, who I take very seriously, says only a 10-15% chance that 92L develops.

[deltadog03]

To further what MW was saying, it does appear that there is def. more turning now on that blob of storms. Still not sure if its at the SFC yet, but it does appear its trying.

Im pretty sure theres no more turning than there was this morning. The only difference is that the sun is no longer obscuring the low clouds. This happened yesterday too

good point....and your prolly right. Also, a bit "hazy" on the edges...So, that tells me that outflow is also starting to improve..(someone else said that as well)

[gatorcane]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

Derek I respect your opinion but why especially since 92L if it develops poses more of a threat to land than 93L at this time.

I give 92L a high probability of development (as I said before about 60% at this time).

[drezee]

I think it has dual centers...Like Erin in 1995:

Synoptic History
Erin formed from a tropical wave that crossed from the coast of Africa to the tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean on 22 July 1995. A large area of disturbed weather and two distinct low-level circulation centers accompanied the wave. The circulation centers were oriented from northwest to southeast and moved in tandem toward the west-northwest over the following five days.



By the 27th, both circulations were generating deep convection a few hundred miles to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. A day later, meteorologists at the NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB, formerly TSAF as in figures) and the NESDIS Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) assigned Dvorak technique T-numbers of 1.5 to the trailing cloud cluster.

[Weatherfreak14]

It does have a spin but it seems most of the convecton is north of the LLC. All it needs is sustained convection on the center..... I dont think that RECON will find any reason to upgrade this to a depression for today.

[jacindc]

Derek Ortt, who I take very seriously, says only a 10-15% chance that 92L develops.

He said the same thing about Dolly, with plenty of predictions about her heading into Honduras....

(Derek, you're a good met, but someday you'll learn not to be quite so definitive and blunt with every one of your statements.)