ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jabber]

I do notice the convection that developed over the center is clearly rotating and gives a good indication IMO that we have a closed low level circulation as well.

Blown_away, we have 48 pages for an invest, to understand how that compares, Helee 2006 only got 49!
I think there is plenty of intrest with this system and I think thats because people know it doesn't look a mess and it does have a real chance of developing.

Not so sure is a closed low... mid level maybe.

[Blown Away]

I'm prob a little more in line with Ortt right now. I don't think there really is an actual defined LLC. QS says no, and looking hard for low clouds movement, I can see they are near the 'center' but still moving west with the easterly flow and not wrapping around the center. As it was said before, this is all mid level right now, and if there was really an LLC then convergence wouldn't have been an issue at all.

It's an invest, so we should not expect to much, but notice the convection popping very close to the: 14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L. I think the appearence of 94L has improved over the past 3 hours, doesn't look E-W elongated. For an invest, pretty good.

[Derek Ortt]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

[SapphireSea]

Also it's moving into some very dry air, and possibly stable atmosphere. This will at the very least suppress the development or slow it down considerably. Depending on how conditions look in the Carrib or near the carrib in the next few days, it may or may not actually become anything, since it's safety first it still definitely wise to watch the progress of this wave/system if you are in the islands.

[Dean4Storms]

We'll have to give 94L overnight and into the early day tomorrow, if convection doesn't deepen around the apparent MLC we'll get an open wave and it will lose its spin. It looks pretty pitiful tonight thus far.

[wxman57]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

But can we say that a system with such an apparently well-defined and rather tight LLC won't develop convection over the next 24-48 hours? Let's say the biggest refinery in the Caribbean Sea in St. Croix is now about 96 hours away from this system. Models indicate it could be a hurricane. The refinery needs to start taking preliminary shutdown actions 3-4 days before the possible arrival of TS winds. Failure to start the very long and laborious shutdown procedures at the proper time before ETA could be extremely dangerous (and costly).

What do you tell them tonight? Don't worry, it won't develop? It's a tough call. Tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. I know they won't make the most major decision of a complete shutdown until about 12-24 hours before ETA, but I have alerted them to the possibility of a hurricane impact Friday evening.

[Blown Away]

As long as the convection continues to pop around the LLC, albeit minimal I would think there is still potential. It's a crossroad, tough call for you.

[Gustywind]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

But can we say that a system with such an apparently well-defined and rather tight LLC won't develop convection over the next 24-48 hours? Let's say the biggest refinery in the Caribbean Sea in St. Croix is now about 96 hours away from this system. Models indicate it could be a hurricane. The refinery needs to start taking preliminary shutdown actions 3-4 days before the possible arrival of TS winds. Failure to start the very long and laborious shutdown procedures at the proper time before ETA could be extremely dangerous (and costly).

What do you tell them tonight? Don't worry, it won't develop? It's a tough call. Tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. I know they won't make the most major decision of a complete shutdown until about 12-24 hours before ETA, but I have alerted them to the possibility of a hurricane impact Friday evening.

Don't forget the others Leewards much souther too ....Guadeloupe Antigua.... Most of the models have indicated a path near Martinica and north of Dominica( especially Basse Terre in Guadeloupe near Huc's location).

[abajan]

Also it's moving into some very dry air, and possibly stable atmosphere. This will at the very least suppress the development or slow it down considerably. Depending on how conditions look in the Carrib or near the carrib in the next few days, it may or may not actually become anything, since it's safety first it still definitely wise to watch the progress of this wave/system if you are in the islands.

Indeed. If (and that's a big if) the GFDL model pans out, the center of a tropical storm will be passing just south of me on Wednesday afternoon!

[SapphireSea]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

But can we say that a system with such an apparently well-defined and rather tight LLC won't develop convection over the next 24-48 hours? Let's say the biggest refinery in the Caribbean Sea in St. Croix is now about 96 hours away from this system. Models indicate it could be a hurricane. The refinery needs to start taking preliminary shutdown actions 3-4 days before the possible arrival of TS winds. Failure to start the very long and laborious shutdown procedures at the proper time before ETA could be extremely dangerous (and costly).

What do you tell them tonight? Don't worry, it won't develop? It's a tough call. Tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. I know they won't make the most major decision of a complete shutdown until about 12-24 hours before ETA, but I have alerted them to the possibility of a hurricane impact Friday evening.

Very good point wxman, as an official I can imagine you would have to think it through, but that would also work both ways if you would call it wrong. I guess one can't really win. I would also side with safety first regardless.. If it does form and threaten, your point still stands that you warned them with much ample time, since you can assume they will reserve the final decision to themselves regardless.

[lebron23]

when is this thing going to blow up?

[boca]

If 94L doesn't pop convection near the center this should loose its spin by tomorrow and be a wave that will fizzle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

At this point I think one errors on development, IMO.

[RL3AO]

Just to make harder, LL convergence is basically gone to the north and LL divergence has increased to its SE.

[boca]

Could the area by 8n and 28w be stealing 94L's energy.

[weatherguru18]

Well (correct me if I'm wrong) but the John Hope rule of thumb was if a storm does not develop before it gets the Leeward Islands it will not do so in the graveyard until it approaches the Yucatan.

[Gustywind]

Also it's moving into some very dry air, and possibly stable atmosphere. This will at the very least suppress the development or slow it down considerably. Depending on how conditions look in the Carrib or near the carrib in the next few days, it may or may not actually become anything, since it's safety first it still definitely wise to watch the progress of this wave/system if you are in the islands.

Indeed. If (and that's a big if) the GFDL model pans out, the center of a tropical storm will be passing just south of me on Wednesday afternoon!

Yeah Abajan that won't be good news for you :eek. Hope that this scenario stays as a simple run....All in all the Carib islanders should monitor this system in case of.

[HURAKAN]

Well (correct me if I'm wrong) but the John Hope rule of thumb was if a storm does not develop before it gets the Leeward Islands it will not do so in the graveyard until it approaches the Yucatan.

There is at least 72 hours before it reaches the Antilles.

[boca]

Well (correct me if I'm wrong) but the John Hope rule of thumb was if a storm does not develop before it gets the Leeward Islands it will not do so in the graveyard until it approaches the Yucatan.

I do remember some storms developing in the graveyard in 2005.

[dhsgal]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

But can we say that a system with such an apparently well-defined and rather tight LLC won't develop convection over the next 24-48 hours? Let's say the biggest refinery in the Caribbean Sea in St. Croix is now about 96 hours away from this system. Models indicate it could be a hurricane. The refinery needs to start taking preliminary shutdown actions 3-4 days before the possible arrival of TS winds. Failure to start the very long and laborious shutdown procedures at the proper time before ETA could be extremely dangerous (and costly).

What do you tell them tonight? Don't worry, it won't develop? It's a tough call. Tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. I know they won't make the most major decision of a complete shutdown until about 12-24 hours before ETA, but I have alerted them to the possibility of a hurricane impact Friday evening.

Very good point wxman, as an official I can imagine you would have to think it through, but that would also work both ways if you would call it wrong. I guess one can't really win. I would also side with safety first regardless.. If it does form and threaten, your point still stands that you warned them with much ample time, since you can assume they will reserve the final decision to themselves regardless.

SAFETY FIRST! This is about the only area I can add any knowledge to on this forum.
I am gradually trying to learn more about these destructive yet fascinating beasts we
call hurricanes. I see and hear to many stories re: people who do not listen to the warnings
or just had no way to get out of dangers path. I agree on letting people know of pending danger, yet we see to many times that they then become immune to the warnings. Next thing you know we are hit with a Katrina or even worse. It's a fine line ya'll in the business
must walk. We here where I work appreciate it.