ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

291
ABNT20 KNHC 142351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED
A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

This pass was made at 5:13 PM EDT.I dont see a closed circulation.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N MOVING
ROUGHLY WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL
DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 40W-47W. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[KWT]

Looks like Q.scat must have missed the circulation, it does do that sometimes esp with developing systems, there is clearly rotation looking at any of the loops.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For being 3 hours old, it certainly looks fairly good cycloneye. It appears that there was almost a closed LLC at the point of the Quikscat pass, and if organization continues, then 94L should easily close off completely overnight (if it has not already). One thing is for sure though, there were definitely a few areas of pretty strong winds on the north side of this system during the quikscat pass. These winds show that once the low can completely close off and maintain convection, there should be no reason why it would not fit the definition of a tropical depression and be upgraded rather quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It certainly has the classic "look" of a developing tropical cyclone. All we need now is more deep convection around/near the center.

[Gustywind]

Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
8:14 p.m. ET 7/14/2008
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a low pressure center about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles could become a tropical depression over the next day or two as it churns westward at 10 to 15 mph. Since this feature is much farther south then Bertha, all interests in the Leeward and Windward Islands need to keep tabs on any future developments.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks a little better now than a couple of hours ago. But it fizzled once this afternoon, so it'll need to get some more storms near the center before I get too excited again.

[Derek Ortt]

the cloud tops are about -30C... developing systems have about -70C


I'm close to making the declaration "next invest please"... but its just a tad too soon for that

[cycloneye]

Pressure up 2 mbs at latest ATCF best track:

AL, 94, 2008071500, , BEST, 0, 118N, 446W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 45, 0, 0,

[wx247]

I'm close to making the declaration "next invest please"... but its just a tad too soon for that

You kind of already did...


Post subject: Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:01 pm


Professional-Met


Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:38 am
Posts: 12728
Location: South Miami, Florida

"I think it is time to start looking for the next one"

[MGC]

Since the convection to the north of the center has deminished, convection near the center has started to increase. I don't know if this trend will continue but this might be the beginning of a strenghting phase. I believe the convective band that existed to the north of the circulation center had inhibited moisture from reaching the center. Earlier in the day, there was dry air in the center, that dry air has appeared to moisten. We shall see if this convective trend continues this evening......MGC

[Blown Away]

It certainly has the classic "look" of a developing tropical cyclone. All we need now is more deep convection around/near the center.

I still think there is a LLC, and I bet it's near 12N/44W.

[cycloneye]

SSD estimates the system at 2.0/2.0,the same as this afternoons update.

14/2345 UTC 11.9N 44.2W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Derek Ortt]

not entirely sure how one gets a 2.0 on that... unles they are using a nighttime visible and measuring the curved nature of the bands

[HURAKAN]

It's possible to go directly to Cristóbal? Without convection, 2.0, what about with convection? Pretty interesting.

[Squarethecircle]

2.0 seems a bit high. Running very, very low on convection now.

[SapphireSea]

I'm prob a little more in line with Ortt right now. I don't think there really is an actual defined LLC. QS says no, and looking hard for low cloud movement in earlier visibles, I can see they are near the 'center' but still moving west with the easterly flow and not wrapping around the center. As it was said before, this is all mid level right now, and if there was really an LLC then convergence wouldn't have been an issue at all.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is never a positive sign for development if additional substantive initiation of convection doesn't occur during the night or evening hours.

That's the case now. The surface low remains within the adjacent broad surface trough and ITCZ's influence.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn.jpg

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm prob a little more in line with Ortt right now. I don't think there really is an actual defined LLC. QS says no, and looking hard for low cloud movement in earlier visibles, I can see they are near the 'center' but still moving west with the easterly flow and not wrapping around the center. As it was said before, this is all mid level right now, and if there was really an LLC then convergence wouldn't have been an issue at all.

Don't trust the QS all the time. Sometimes it will miss the circulation (why, I don't know). It even showed Bertha as tropical low at one point. I'm not saying don't use it at all, but don't take it too seriously.