ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[WxGuy1]

The latest CIMSS upper-level wind shear analysis continues to indicate at least 20 kts of shear over the center, courtesy of still-strong southerly flow atop nearly the entire storm. Between that and the dry air, it may explain why Gustav has yet to have a persistent, visible eye, despite the 3-4 different attempts it has had today. It seems that strong convection would wrap around the center, some warming would show up on IR, but such a feature would very quickly deform and fill back in. The timing may help a bit given cloud-top radiational cooling (a la the typical nocturnal convective maximum), but the shear and nearby dry air appears to be preventing significant intensification.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

How did you come to that conclusion (full brunt in N.O.)?

[HarlequinBoy]

Terrebonne Parish is a pretty populated parish.

[soonertwister]

Suicidal -removed- reaches a crescendo in the last hours before landfall.

[physicx07]

USAFR recon just turned back (see recon thread). Mechanical issue, I guess. Don't know how long NOAA plane can stay out there, but they'll be a satellite eclipse early morning. I hope there is a plane in there then...

I think they have other planes too. Maybe they will be able to send another one.

[BigBeep]

Have been glued to this site for years for sanity and divergent opinions. Keep up the good work and all should continue their prayers for the folks in Lower Lafourche, Terrebonne, And St. Mary Parish. Many fond memories of Fourchon, Cote Blanche Bay and Cypremore Point.

FYI Houstonians can watch WWL-TV coverage on Comcast Channel 310 KHOU, just like with Katrina. I think it is Digital channel 11.2. First time I thought I had something to contribute

[Just Joshing You]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

How did you come to that conclusion (full brunt in N.O.)?

By full brunt, I mean the NE quadrant will play a significant part in structural damage, as well as any possible flooding.

I may be optimistic, but does anyone honestly believe this will be as bad as Katrina? Some of the media are saying it's going to be worse.

[cpdaman]

Radar continues to show a more NNW motion...I dont see how this goes west of NO

I'm not seeing it but I'm no radar expert.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

mobile IMO gives you an even better view

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[wxman57]

That was a very understandable post from a pro met at this forum, and I appreciate it as I"m sure others do too.

We all value the pro mets here, but sometimes they are only talking to each other, like doctors or lawyers, using terminology that laymen don't fully comprehend.

Don't be afraid to dumb it down for the rest of us! We're not stupid, but we don't all have the training.

Thank you.

I loved that you stated that beautifully!!![/quote]

Thanks. Here's another way to look at it - a graphic I made:

[Enzo Aquarius]

I may be optimistic, but does anyone honestly believe this will be as bad as Katrina? Some of the media are saying it's going to be worse.

The thing is, we won't know if it's worse than Katrina until after the storm, how the new levies hold, the amount of flooding, etc. We will have to wait and see.

[RL3AO]

I may be optimistic, but does anyone honestly believe this will be as bad as Katrina? Some of the media are saying it's going to be worse.

The winds will almost certainly be stronger in New Orleans than Katrinas. The question is weather the southern levees will hold.

[Normandy]

If, and ONLY IF, New Orleans sees any part of the eyewall of Gustav, then yes I fear it could rival Katrina. Remember, this storm is heading NW (worst case heading for NO).

[Dean4Storms]

Could be if NO is in the NE Quad this time, heavier rainfall, stronger winds and and strong east fetch of surge coming into Lake P.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

How did you come to that conclusion (full brunt in N.O.)?

By full brunt, I mean the NE quadrant will play a significant part in structural damage, as well as any possible flooding.

I may be optimistic, but does anyone honestly believe this will be as bad as Katrina? Some of the media are saying it's going to be worse.

No.....unless he stalls and dumps a ton rain on N.O. Of course this is just my 2 cents.

[MHurricanes]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

New Orleans to Mobil are going to get a royal ass-kicking.
We went through Charlie's low CAT 1 winds and it was not pleasant. Out of power for almost three days. Trees down everywhere. And we, all of us, suffered from a new disease called "power envy."

- Mhurricanes

[BigB0882]

Lights already blinking here, man, not yet!!! As far as I can tell we are only getting light rain.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at Landfall, and from what I remembered, didn't Katrina only give sustained wings of cat 1 and gusts of cat 2 in N.O? It looks like N.O will get the full brunt of Gustavs winds though, probably Cat 2 sustained, cat 3/4 gusts.

How did you come to that conclusion (full brunt in N.O.)?

By full brunt, I mean the NE quadrant will play a significant part in structural damage, as well as any possible flooding.

I may be optimistic, but does anyone honestly believe this will be as bad as Katrina? Some of the media are saying it's going to be worse.

No.....unless he stalls and dumps a ton rain on N.O. Of course this is just my 2 cents.

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 876
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL
700 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 875...

DISCUSSION...HRCN GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE NCNTRL GULF
COAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
150-200 M2/S2 WAS ALREADY OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHDL
AND SERN LA/MS DELTA REGIONS. THIS SHEAR WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HRCN TRACKS NWWD AND
STRONGER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SPREAD INLAND. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLD
DISCRETE STORMS WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXHIBITING
PERSISTENCE AND WEAK ROTATION BASED ON AREA RADARS. WITH TIME...THE
RISK FOR MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER CORES WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL
SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE CENTER OF THE HRCN
CIRCULATION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 09035.


...CARBIN

[Just Joshing You]

I don't think 12 inches of rain is going to be able to come close to the 20+ feet of water that inundated New Orleans the last time. I just don't think the storm has the surge to topple the levee's, in my entirely unprofessional opinion.

[AZRainman]