Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[southerngale]

I have been preoccupied with Edouard for a while... isn't this the same Invest that all the models showed recurving and going out to sea several days ago?

The models kept developing it so it was going to move north into the weakness in the ridge. It hasn't developed and continues to move west with the low level flow.

Ok, thanks. It doesn't have any model support now, does it?

[blp]

I have been preoccupied with Edouard for a while... isn't this the same Invest that all the models showed recurving and going out to sea several days ago?

The models kept developing it so it was going to move north into the weakness in the ridge. It hasn't developed and continues to move west with the low level flow.

Ok, thanks. It doesn't have any model support now, does it?

I haven't seen any model support yet on this. All the models had this getting pushed NW and getting eaten up by ULL. It has managed to slip by with the low level flow.

[Honeyko]

I have been preoccupied with Edouard for a while... isn't this the same Invest that all the models showed recurving and going out to sea several days ago?

Yes. They couldn't handle the decouple nature of the system, and expected a vertical system to be pushed northwestward by shear and eventually recurve. Instead, the mid-level center is presently recurving while the low center has raced off west and is now developing in isolation. I have a graph a couple pages back showing the split. AFAIK, none of the models are presently tracking the surface low.

[RL3AO]

Is anyone seeing the 2am TWO? Both the Atlantic and EPac ones are not out and it was due over an hour ago.

[blp]

Is anyone seeing the 2am TWO? Both the Atlantic and EPac ones are not out and it was due over an hour ago.

I did see the TWD at 2:05am but nothing on the TWO.

[Honeyko]

Eyeball-projected 0804 1930Z center-fix: just a sliver southeast of 22N/62W. WNW heading. SAL still to the east, barging it forward.

Eyeball-projected (from IR2) 0805 0845Z center-fix: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.

Eyeball-projected 0805 1705Z center-fix: 23N/68W...WNW heading continues; forward speed slowing during passage under upper trough.

Eyeball-projected (from IR2) 0806 0645Z center-fix: 23N/72W. Forward speed resumed; due W heading.

==//==

Will very shortly cross the 29C isotherm:

[tailgater]

As I said earlier, I don't like the way this system is headed into some the warmest waters in the Atlantic and a almost due west heading, ridge to it's north, low shear, a strong twisting wave(circ?) and the first part of August. Dry air not an inhabiting factor anymore. These Upper levels are my friend right now I hope they continue to be or this EX 99L could really be a major problem.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

not good
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
Pro mets and more knowledgeable weigh in please.

[Honeyko]

Twelve hours of persistent convection, and that convection is over the center and now expanding in coverage. Outflow is excellent all quadrants.

....IMO, ex-99L is now a tropical depression.

[KWT]

There is convection with it but its sooo small its going to need to gain some more convective coverage before this one will get noticed. I highly doubt its a TD right now, heck if it wasn't a TD when it was near Africa its certainly not one now!

But it is improving I have to admit and if it makes it into the gulf then things will get interesting, its got a shot there IMO.

[tailgater]

Twelve hours of persistent convection, and that convection is over the center and now expanding in coverage. Outflow is excellent all quadrants.

....IMO, ex-99L is now a tropical depression.

At least make it an invest again so the models will start running again.

KWT wrote
But it is improving I have to admit and if it makes it into the gulf then things will get interesting, its got a shot there IMO.

It won't take long if conditions are right, I've seen a number of weak systems ramp up quickly in this region

[KWT]

Yeah this probably should be an invest again given its got as clear as day circulation with it.

[Chacor]

If that's a TD, the huge ITCZ blowup over South America is a Cat 3.

Quikscat should be hopefully passing over the system in a few hours.

But I can't tell a low, and TAFB does not mention a low.

FZNT23 KNHC 060839
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

<snip>

$$
AMZ088-061530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH FROM 27N68W TO 22N71W WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. RIDGE
ALONG 29N WILL MOVE S TO 25N THU THROUGH SAT AND MOVE E AS A
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W
TO 28N80W SUN AFTERNOON.

$$
AMZ080-061530-
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...N OF 28N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. FROM 25N TO 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S
OF 25N E OF 73W E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 25N W
OF 73W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS S OF
26N.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N OF 28N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. FROM 24N TO 28N S TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. S OF 24N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT E OF
BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 26N S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF
26N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND
1 TO 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N.
.SAT AND SUN...N OF 28N SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING NW TO N
W OF TROUGH SUN. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. FROM 25N TO 28N S TO SW WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N E OF 75W E TO SE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N W OF 75 W VARIABLE WINDS 10
KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N

$$
FORECASTER DGS

[KWT]

Chacor, any circulation may be a little above the surface, its pretty evident if you look at the loops that there is a circulation to it though I agree its not a TD IMO.

[Honeyko]

There is convection with it but its sooo small its going to need to gain some more convective coverage before this one will get noticed. I highly doubt its a TD right now, heck if it wasn't a TD when it was near Africa its certainly not one now!

Size does not equal intensity.

This has a very small, very tight circulation in an ideal environment; and I predict it's going to intensify rapidly over that 29C Bahama and Florida Straits water.

If that's a TD, the huge ITCZ blowup over South America is a Cat 3.

Size of thunderstorms has no correlation to surface windfield organization.

Quikscat should be hopefully passing over the system in a few hours.

Maybe, but 99L is a tiny system and QuikSCAT data points aren't that close together.

==//==

I mentioned a Rita analog on previous pages; here's another scary analog, the Labor Day Hurricane:

[KWT]

Nope size isn't the be all of course but this really is tiny as these systems go, of course if it does develop it could do it rapidly with this tiny size but firstly we need an invest again before we get further.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is with out question becoming better organized. But this would be one of the smallest if not the smallest cyclone I have ever seen if it is upgraded. I see some low cloud "turning" with inflow trying to get going, also convection has also increased. A system this small can strengthen or fade based on small changes.

I do expect if current trends are kepted it will be marked again as a invest. But if it goe's over florida a system of this size will have problems making it across; unless it become a stronger system.

[Honeyko]

This is with out question becoming better organized. But this would be one of the smallest if not the smallest cyclone I have ever seen....

The Labor Day hurricane was extremely small.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is with out question becoming better organized. But this would be one of the smallest if not the smallest cyclone I have ever seen....

The Labor Day hurricane was extremely small.

None of us have ever seen the labor day storm. Also there was one smaller it was emily of 99.

[RL3AO]

If thats a TC, were talking Tracy like small...but without the cat 4 part.


But its not a TC.