ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Derek Ortt]

low latitude is not a factor

you can get development close to the equator if the low-level dynamics are favorable

[jasons2k]

Guys and gals:

There has been lots of sniping back & forth in the last few pages.

This is the active storms forum so let's keep our posts limited to something of substance please.

ALSO a reminder: in the active storms forum, posts may be deleted and suspensions issued without notice.

In summary, think before you post. Thanks.

[Recurve]

Anyone tracking shear ahead?

[KWT]

Recurve- wxman57 was saying the GFS really ups the shear in a big way in the Caribbean but that is 5 days away and the GFS model isn't always all that amazing with regards to forecasting shear.

[tolakram]

There is an area of increased shear near where this invest is located. Is that an artifact of this system or perhaps something keeping it from organizing?

[Recurve]

Sorry if I missed it but haven't the models just about lost this? Or I'm blind.
I looked at 18z GFS, 12Z CMC, UKMET, GFDL. Is that right?

[boca]

The models look like the keep this a low tracker just like Dean and Felix.Hello Yucatan.

[Thunder44]

As oppoosed to earlier, it's starting to firing up more convection center itself, instead on it's periphery. Which may be sign that the LLC is getting stronger.

[RL3AO]

The models look like the keep this a low tracker just like Dean and Felix.Hello Yucatan.

I don't see the bermuda high allowing a Yucatan hit. IMO.

[KWT]

The difference is Boca there may well be a weakness this time to allow the system more to the WNW/NW by 70-75W but we will see. For now best bet is this heads throughthe Caribbean sea, after that it may wel lbe a threat to Cuba and the Yucatan we will have to wait and see.

Saying that hisotrical systems that formed close by do often see Yucatan hits.

[Sanibel]

The convection burst that happened about this time yesterday isn't repeating right now. But it could be better if it flares later tonight because nocturnal flaring is a better sign of development.

The center has obviously tightened slightly and the spin is better. Looks like a system just waiting to burst - BUT - those who've attended this board for years have seen better systems dissipate before.

A sharp eye will see a linear border to the invest's NNW quadrant.


If I had to guess I'd say this one will develop.

It could be meaningless, but the current basin has seen a naked Bertha refire nicely.

[TheRingo]

This looks like the winds from the northeast are pushing it west. Maybe this is the ridge building in.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[KWT]

Indeed Sanibel the center does look better, earlier today it looked like it was getting elongated but it does seem to have been helped by the recent convection nearer the center. If convection can burst and hold for a little while then there is every chance it will get upgraded.

[Blown Away]

The models look like the keep this a low tracker just like Dean and Felix.Hello Yucatan.

I think it takes the Yucatan route because it's weak and shallow. I'm still impressed w/ this invest, I think it's taking time to develope because it is large, IMO.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE DECREASED
A LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

[jhamps10]

looking at the loop, it looks like it is compacting the spin a bit, and that northern convection is wrapping around and forming around a potential smaller center near 12-13N and 44W.

or maybe it's my eyes fooling me but it looks like it is trying to compact the rotating low.

[Blown Away]

I don't know what's going on w/ you guys, if we had 94L during 2006-07 we would have been in heaven. You forget the those sheared messes we watched for days while they were clinging for life from shear.

[KWT]

I do notice the convection that developed over the center is clearly rotating and gives a good indication IMO that we have a closed low level circulation as well.

Blown_away, we have 48 pages for an invest, to understand how that compares, Helee 2006 only got 49!
I think there is plenty of intrest with this system and I think thats because people know it doesn't look a mess and it does have a real chance of developing.

[PTrackerLA]

NHC still bullish as I figured. All signs point to development especially since it's encountering an area of convergence to it's north now.

[Blown Away]

I do notice the convection that developed over the center is clearly rotating and gives a good indication IMO that we have a closed low level circulation as well.

Blown_away, we have 48 pages for an invest, to understand how that compares, Helee 2006 only got 49!
I think there is plenty of intrest with this system and I think thats because people know it doesn't look a mess and it does have a real chance of developing.

I don't get it, 94L has looked pretty good all day for an invest. It's pretty clear rate now that 94L is slowly consolidating and the WNW movement will pull 94L away from the ITCZ very soon and things will come together quickly, IMO.