ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[RL3AO]

thats not where recon fixed the center on its last pass... recon fixed the center (and at a very low level) inside of the deep convection

Your kiddin, if that is not the LLC we have two TC's out there brewin or the center has moved NW since Recon was in there?

MLC?

[Cryomaniac]

I'll take all the blame....aqua seafoam shame..

That's the best Nirvana reference I've ever seen on S2k, it gave me a laugh, thanks. Now, back to Edouard...

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise, as such it should not under any circumstances be used for any purpose

I can see this maybe touching cat 3 status. I don't speculate on tracks, and I'm not going to start now. Oil prices may well rise because of this though.

[Stormcenter]

The LLC is becoming exposed and appears to me to be moving more WNW now and not due west by any means.

Speed this up and you'll see.........


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

Well it's hard to tell if it's moving due west or wnw but either way it's not moving fast at all.

[Clint_TX]

Dean...even if it's becoming exposed there is just not enough shear for it to spit the bit like we've seen in the past

[njweather]

SHIPS has it moving almost due west ( with a very slight southward direction) for the next 10 hours or so, so it's current movement is not unexpected.

[tailgater]

087
URNT12 KNHC 032121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052008
A. 03/21:04:10Z
B. 28 deg 06 min N
087 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 297 deg 7 nm
F. 048 deg 025 kt
G. 299 deg 007 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 22 C/ 280 m
J. 24 C/ 281 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/
O. 0.03 / NA nm
P. AF308 01BBA INVEST OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53KT SE QUAD 2107Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[shortwave]

I agree with Derek on the location of the center. Looks to be tucked in just under the convection.
as an aside, just as the damn gas prices started to drop off a little this storm had to pop up. Maybe they should put heavy duty wind turbines in the gulf too.

[Dean4Storms]

thats not where recon fixed the center on its last pass... recon fixed the center (and at a very low level) inside of the deep convection

Your kiddin, if that is not the LLC we have two TC's out there brewin or the center has moved NW since Recon was in there?


It would not make sense that we are seeing a MLC tilted to the NW in a Northerly sheared enviro.

28.1 N 88.0 W puts it right on top of that LLC or slightly ESE of that LLC I see becoming exposed.

[CajunMama]

Let's move on from wilma please. Others have asked to have it ended.

On the other hand, i would suggest some please read this thread thoroughly and not just read the latest page. Some of your questions have already been answered. Example...i was out for a few hours. Knew when i left the thread was on p.26 and when i came back it was up to 41 pages. So i started on p. 26 and found alot of info there.

And useless posts....they're being deleted and if i keep deleting posts from the same people you will get a suspension.

Carrry on the discussion please

[KWT]

Dean4Storms, your just seeing the broader circulation probably expanding, the tighter circulation is pretty evident even on Sat imagery to be centered inside the deep convectyion and as Derek has said recon confirms that.

[MiamiensisWx]

KWT, I was not referring to mid level dry air. I was alluding to the fact that several people believe land itself inhibits development.

Regardless, there are a few factors that make me more conservative on the prospects of Edouard attaining hurricane intensity. Convective outflow from the passing MCS to the NW and overland convection to the north has been inducing upper level shear over the system. This may be an issue, even as the TC eventually turns west and northerly shear on the east side of the H5 ridge decreases. Note the multiple Mesoscale Convective Systems rotating around the upper level ridge. This may slightly hinder Edouard and prevent the chances of a more extreme intensity solution from verifying, despite an increasingly ideal upper air regime.

Dean4Storms, the LLC is not moving WNW. You may be fooled by the angle of that satellite loop. The following visible loop is much better, and it clearly depicts a continuing WSW movement of the LLC, which is now partially covered by developing thunderstorms. Edouard is clearly gradually intensifying and organizing. Overall, tonight's diurnal maximum and the developing convection's relation to the LLC may play a big role in regards to the system's rate of intensification and future intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think people should take the "MCS factors" into account and monitor tonight's trends before declaring a Cat 1 landfall as an undeniable fact.

[wxman22]

[KWT]

Ok MiamiensisWx yeah that makes sense, Humberto taught me that lesson very well and also should be noted small compact systems won't be quite so badly effected by the dry air unless they get real close to land.

[Stormcenter]

Well it's pretty evident where the center is IMO. Like I said earlier it sure is crawling along.



http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[Dean4Storms]

Dean4Storms, your just seeing the broader circulation probably expanding, the tighter circulation is pretty evident even on Sat imagery to be centered inside the deep convectyion and as Derek has said recon confirms that.

No sorry, the LLC is at the very NW edge of that convection and half of it is becoming exposed, I've followed Hurricanes and sat. loops for nearly 40 yrs and know a LLC when I see it becoming exposed. It looks like all its deep convection is on the S and SE quadrant. It may tuck back completely under the convection, but it is hardly under it NOW.


Speed the animation up........

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the forecast challenge, it seems most believe we will see Hurricane Edouard, and one around 85-100 kt.

[wxman22]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
549 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED IN THE 40 TO 65 MPH RANGE. MINOR DAMAGE
WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR
DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS
MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL
WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE
BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED FROM FREEPORT
TO HIGH ISLAND BRINGING THE TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO
BE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. SOUTH
OF FREEPORT TO PORT O`CONNOR A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTAL WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS LIBERTY...HARRIS...JACKSON...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE 6
TO 8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THE TROPICAL STORM
APPROACHES AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM CDT.

[MiamiensisWx]

No sorry, the LLC is at the very NW edge of that convection and half of it is becoming exposed, I've followed Hurricanes and sat. loops for nearly 40 yrs and know a LLC when I see it becoming exposed. It looks like all its deep convection is on the S and SE quadrant. It may tuck back completely under the convection, but it is hardly under it NOW.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1756921#p1756921

"Dean4Storms, the LLC is not moving WNW. You may be fooled by the angle of that satellite loop. The following visible loop is much better, and it clearly depicts a continuing WSW movement of the LLC, which is now partially covered by developing thunderstorms. Edouard is clearly gradually intensifying and organizing. Overall, tonight's diurnal maximum and the developing convection's relation to the LLC may play a big role in regards to the system's rate of intensification and future intensity."

Personally, I disagree, but to each his own.

[Stormcenter]

If there is one thing I think most of us can agree on is that
it is definintely getting better organized by the hour.

[stevetampa33614]

On what basis does the NHC use to say it wont get stronger than a CAT 1. Im kind of in disagreement. It is over very good waters