Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[gatorcane]

link is broken

[Lifesgud2]

Well, the good news does seem to be that the models are bringing this off the coast of Florida instead of into Florida. I was about to make the hurrican run, but I guess I wont have to. Great news. Hope the models bring it out to sea. Thats What I think will happen

[gatorcane]

Those models that have it right of FL are already off as 92L is trucking pretty much due W and now WNW. They should shift left in the next few runs putting the majority of the models back at Florida. This flip-flopping should be expected so we need to see long-term trends.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081406

o6z nogaps has this slam into extreme souther florida

Your link does not work!

[gatorcane]

Pretty much a SE Florida prognosis or just to the East.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the latest model consensus (gray line on image above) takes this on a very Floyd-like track.

If that track played out, then we would be looking at a system that moved slowly north parallel to the Florida coast between Sunday evening and Tuesday, meaning many hours worth of high waves and heavy outer rain-squalls for the coastline. Inland, we would also probably be close enough to see some outer bands and breezy winds. I am still quite anxious about the timing of this whole thing though. My travel plans for late Tuesday morning looks like they could easily be in jeopardy, especially if the models shift further west.

[DESTRUCTION5]

the latest model consensus (gray line on image above) takes this on a very Floyd-like track.

If that track played out, then we would be looking at a system that moved slowly north parallel to the Florida coast between Sunday evening and Tuesday, meaning many hours worth of high waves and heavy outer rain-squalls for the coastline. Inland, we would also probably be close enough to see some outer bands and breezy winds. I am still quite anxious about the timing of this whole thing though. My travel plans for late Tuesday morning looks like they could easily be in jeopardy, especially if the models shift further west.

Floyd was much further N at this point and did not come in from that S of an angle..

[Meso]

Some of the 06z runs are out now... You can see the models are about 50/50 on whether to hit around Florida or not... As many have said, models will change a lot over the next day or so, especially as the system develops

[gatorcane]

Yeah I would prefer not to mention Floyd, the synoptics are different with this one and that may give people a false sense of security especially in SE Florida.

[rjgator]

At least the threat to Florida seemed to have lessened.

Never seen the Modeling shift 50 miles West huh boca? LOL..If it did in this case its in your back yard...

yeah, or if the system continues on for 6 hours longer westward than modeled than boca has system at the hillsboro inlet, lol

THe most important thing is a storm with this projected type path can set up the absolute "Worst case Scenario" if it made landfall and road the coast with the eye partly over land and partly over water from Miami north to ? It can also cause a mass exvac like with floyd.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the latest model consensus (gray line on image above) takes this on a very Floyd-like track.

If that track played out, then we would be looking at a system that moved slowly north parallel to the Florida coast between Sunday evening and Tuesday, meaning many hours worth of high waves and heavy outer rain-squalls for the coastline. Inland, we would also probably be close enough to see some outer bands and breezy winds. I am still quite anxious about the timing of this whole thing though. My travel plans for late Tuesday morning looks like they could easily be in jeopardy, especially if the models shift further west.

Floyd was much further N at this point and did not come in from that S of an angle..

yes true, I meant it in a very general sense. The re-curve shown by the consensus is pretty similar to what Floyd did. However, I do agree that from this angle the effects might be slightly worse (depending on the strength of Fay at the time) than what FL, especially south Florida, saw from Floyd.

[rjgator]

the latest model consensus (gray line on image above) takes this on a very Floyd-like track.

If that track played out, then we would be looking at a system that moved slowly north parallel to the Florida coast between Sunday evening and Tuesday, meaning many hours worth of high waves and heavy outer rain-squalls for the coastline. Inland, we would also probably be close enough to see some outer bands and breezy winds. I am still quite anxious about the timing of this whole thing though. My travel plans for late Tuesday morning looks like they could easily be in jeopardy, especially if the models shift further west.

Floyd was much further N at this point and did not come in from that S of an angle..

yes true, I meant it in a very general sense. The re-curve shown by the consensus is pretty similar to what Floyd did. However, I do agree that from this angle the effects might be slightly worse (depending on the strength of Fay at the time) than what FL, especially south Florida, saw from Floyd.

I actually replied to the wrong quote. After being in this forum for four years and about 3000 hours of reading I should figure out how to post. Your point is dead on.

[rockyman]

IMHO, the timing of any sharp turn predicted MORE THAN 72 HOURS from now should be viewed with skepticism. The GFDL and HWRF's turn occur in about 3 1/2 days. If the timing of the turn if delayed by 24 hours, the result would be a track over a two hundred miles to the west.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This thing hasn't even fully developed an LLC yet. Hell it isn't even officially (or I'd say practically, though admittedly getting close) a depression. The eventual defined surface center could form anywhere (and then reform several times during further early consolidation) within the current board area of defused low pressure, a.k.a. disturbed weather. As such I think it is best to adopt a 'wait and see' stance for now.

In closing only a fool would assume, at this early time, that they are safe anywhere along the US SE or even NE GOM coast. One of my favorite teachers often said when you assume, with out adequate faces, you make an ass out of you and an ass out of me. With the above stated don't be an ass, wait for all the pertinent evidence to become available and then think it over carefully before you assume anything.

[deltadog03]

GFDL and HWRF have already shifted west or left on the last runs..

[gatorcane]

Latest TAFB is interesting -- are they suggest it goes west into the Greater Antilles and then makes a NNW turn into the SE Bahamas??? (notice the arrow pointing NNW)

[KWT]

Yep the GFDL is a little further west then the last few runs it had, I'd suspect a slow shift back west close enough to be a real threat to Florida though I do think there is decent enough agreement on the idea of a northerly turn to believe it now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest TAFB is interesting -- are they suggest it goes west into the Greater Antilles and then makes a NNW turn into the SE Bahamas??? (notice the arrow pointing NNW)

Not quite. If you look at the entire TAFB forecast, you can see that they keep 92L north of the islands the entire time...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

I think that arrow is just simply pointing out the system and is not actually any kind of direction indicator.

[rockyman]

Many of the 6z models had the "big turn" happening at 74N
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

While the 12z models show the "big turn" at 76 or 77N:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png