ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[stevetampa33614]

I'm pretty sure there's next to no chance of this being a TS at landfall, unfortunately.

What kind of intensity would you think?

Comparing any System to a prevouis system is ludacris. Or any season to any season for that matter. I see alot of references to DANNY OMG, and 1997 lately and its just silly.

There all different.

No 2 are the same.

[KWT]

I'm thinking the Alicia comprasion may not be quite so outlandish, I don't think it will get quite as strong as that did given its closer to land but could well get to top end category-1 if it does decide to rapidly get going like it has been doing so recently.

[Duddy]

Comparing this to Wilma is ludicrous. This looks to be strong TS/weak Cat 1 at landfall. Typical GOM storm.

I completely agree with this post and the bolded section.

I only meant to compare it's sat presentation when it was a TD! And I said nevermind when I realized I was thinking about something else. I dropped the Wilma discussion forever ago.

[Just Joshing You]

In my amateur opinion, I think a min range Cat 1.

[Windtalker1]

1002 now

[Duddy]

I'm pretty sure there's next to no chance of this being a TS at landfall, unfortunately.

What kind of intensity would you think?

I'm betting strong cat 2 at landfall near Galveston.

[PTrackerLA]

Unfortunately, I'm thinking this will become a hurricane before landfall. It's turning out to be Texas's year apparently . It's only August 3rd too.

[wxmann_91]

Comparing this to Wilma is ludicrous. This looks to be strong TS/weak Cat 1 at landfall. Typical GOM storm.

I completely agree with this post and the bolded section.

I only meant to compare it's sat presentation when it was a TD! And I said nevermind when I realized I was thinking about something else. I dropped the Wilma discussion forever ago.

Apologies then. My bad.

[jordanmills]

Unfortunately, I'm thinking this will become a hurricane before landfall. It's turning out to be Texas's year apparently . It's only August 3rd too.

It's about time. I was disappointed in last year.

[hiflyer]

New Orleans radar skimming the north side of it on long range
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[stevetampa33614]

It's only August 3rd too.

This I think scares me the most. The unknown. The CV season hasnt even started yet.

Btw I think We tied the EPAC today for storms

edit no Epac is 2 up

[Honeyko]

Comparing this to Wilma is ludicrous.

IMO, comparing any storm not in the western Caribbean to a storm in the western Caribbean is ludicrous.

This looks to be strong TS/weak Cat 1 at landfall.

I lean toward cat-2; this has plenty of time the slow movement.

Typical GOM storm.

The typical weak GOM TS is moving NW from the Car/Yuc, or a northeast-moving old-frontal-boundary storm. Ed is WEST-moving, old frontal boundary storm....they are not that common. Alicia is the best analog there is to that.

[Mecklenburg]

no way is this thing gonna be like Wilma, the most i expect from this thing is a weak Cat. 3 storm

[hwego7]

I completely agree with this post and the bolded section. I personally anticipate a solid TS at landfall that may approach 55-65 kt.

The problem with this is that after the NHC said it would be 40kts in 24 hours, it did it in 15 minutes. So the NHC had to scramble with an emergency statement and bump the winds up. Everyone is certain this will be a TS or weak cat 1 in a worse case scenario. Let me quote Artemus Ward once again: "It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us into trouble, it's the things we do know that just ain't so."

Everyone knows this will be a TS at landfall, but what if it just ain't so.

[Dionne]

NDBC 42001 recorded a -0.07 pressure drop since 150PM.

[RL3AO]

Forecast challenge up.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102282

[KWT]

I do somewhat agree hwego7 I remember all of us getting burnt with Humberto so I'm really wary when we have such developing systems in the gulf now that appear to have increasingly good conditions for development.

[masaji79]

Atlantic is on Edouard, Pacific has alread had Genevieve.

[jinftl]

Will relative proximity to land as it parallels the coast...less than 100 miles from the LA coast (95 miles SE of Mouth of Mississippi)...hinder development?

Areas of Louisiana fall below 30 deg latitude...f the storm starts moving more WNW it could come even closer to the coast it is forecast to parallel.

[tolakram]

Latest:



The loop is impressive. It's being sheared but the convection is vigorous.