ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[dizzyfish]

They were all over this on the news a little while ago.

I give it a maybe...


or not.

[KWT]

All I've seen is the deeper convection transfer westwards a little bit, if anything the deepest convection is further away fron the center then it was earlier today if the center is where I think it is, I could be wrong I'm no pro I have to admit!

[wxman57]

My take is that it looks quite impressive this afternoon, as good as i expected it to look at this time and quite a bit more organized than most invests ever are. With a well-defined LLC present, I think it's only a matter of time before convection builds over the center (probably tonight) and the NHC upgrades it to TD 3. I think there's at least a 50% shot it'll be upgraded by 4am CDT tomorrow, and a 70-80% shot it'll be upgraded by 4pm tomorrow.

Now, about its future track. Early on, it looked like it might take the opportunity to turn NW as it approached the Caribbean. I don't think that'll be the case now. High pressure off the southeast U.S. coast may be too strong and extend too far east to allow for recurvature east of the Caribbean, and the upper trof to its north between 50-60W just may not extend far enough south. So a track into the east Caribbean north of Dominica looks probable, passing into the Caribbean overnight on Thursday with a heading of 280-290 deg. Beyond then, lots of uncertainties. The GFS tries to move the weakness in the ridge westward (north of the system). This could allow for more of a WNW movement toward the DR on Saturday, and it could cause a NW-N turn somewhere between PR and eastern Cuba late Saturday or on Sunday. That's a very low confidence forecast. If it misses the weakness in the ridge, then a strong ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern Gulf may just continue pushing it W-WNW toward Mexico. Really, really low confidence there.

Concerning intensity, once the convection builds near the center it should steadily strengthen. Quite possibly it could become a 75-80 mph hurricane prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. But once in the Caribbean, the GFS indicates increasing low-level easterly winds (30-40 kt easterly winds at 850mb). This would lead to low-level divergence, a pattern that could tilt the storm and lead to weakening to a sheared TS. Of course, the GFS wind projections could be wrong, so my confidence in any weakening in the eastern Caribbean isn't high. I don't see conditions favorable for it to become a major hurricane, though.

So now we wait. I fully expect a call from the office at 3:45am tomorrow telling me we have TD 3 on our hands.

[MiamiensisWx]

This one's done.

[cycloneye]

They were all over this on the news a little while ago.

I give it a maybe...


or not.

The media likes to hype every little thunderstorm.

[RL3AO]

My take is that it looks quite impressive this afternoon, as good as i expected it to look at this time and quite a bit more organized than most invests ever are. With a well-defined LLC present, I think it's only a matter of time before convection builds over the center (probably tonight) and the NHC upgrades it to TD 3. I think there's at least a 50% shot it'll be upgraded by 4am CDT tomorrow, and a 70-80% shot it'll be upgraded by 4pm tomorrow.

Now, about its future track. Early on, it looked like it might take the opportunity to turn NW as it approached the Caribbean. I don't think that'll be the case now. High pressure off the southeast U.S. coast may be too strong and extend too far east to allow for recurvature east of the Caribbean, and the upper trof to its north between 50-60W just may not extend far enough south. So a track into the east Caribbean north of Dominica looks probable, passing into the Caribbean overnight on Thursday with a heading of 280-290 deg. Beyond then, lots of uncertainties. The GFS tries to move the weakness in the ridge westward (north of the system). This could allow for more of a WNW movement toward the DR on Saturday, and it could cause a NW-N turn somewhere between PR and eastern Cuba late Saturday or on Sunday. That's a very low confidence forecast. If it misses the weakness in the ridge, then a strong ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern Gulf may just continue pushing it W-WNW toward Mexico. Really, really low confidence there.

Concerning intensity, once the convection builds near the center it should steadily strengthen. Quite possibly it could become a 75-80 mph hurricane prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. But once in the Caribbean, the GFS indicates increasing low-level easterly winds (30-40 kt easterly winds at 850mb). This would lead to low-level divergence, a pattern that could tilt the storm and lead to weakening to a sheared TS. Of course, the GFS wind projections could be wrong, so my confidence in any weakening in the eastern Caribbean isn't high. I don't see conditions favorable for it to become a major hurricane, though.

So now we wait. I fully expect a call from the office at 3:45am tomorrow telling me we have TD 3 on our hands.

That is about 100% different than Derek who thinks it is done. He puts development at 10-20%. Who will win this battle of the Pro Mets?

[mutley]

They were all over this on the news a little while ago.

I give it a maybe...


or not.

LOL. Spot on post for the tropical moment.

[HarlequinBoy]

My take is that it looks quite impressive this afternoon, as good as i expected it to look at this time and quite a bit more organized than most invests ever are. With a well-defined LLC present, I think it's only a matter of time before convection builds over the center (probably tonight) and the NHC upgrades it to TD 3. I think there's at least a 50% shot it'll be upgraded by 4am CDT tomorrow, and a 70-80% shot it'll be upgraded by 4pm tomorrow.

Now, about its future track. Early on, it looked like it might take the opportunity to turn NW as it approached the Caribbean. I don't think that'll be the case now. High pressure off the southeast U.S. coast may be too strong and extend too far east to allow for recurvature east of the Caribbean, and the upper trof to its north between 50-60W just may not extend far enough south. So a track into the east Caribbean north of Dominica looks probable, passing into the Caribbean overnight on Thursday with a heading of 280-290 deg. Beyond then, lots of uncertainties. The GFS tries to move the weakness in the ridge westward (north of the system). This could allow for more of a WNW movement toward the DR on Saturday, and it could cause a NW-N turn somewhere between PR and eastern Cuba late Saturday or on Sunday. That's a very low confidence forecast. If it misses the weakness in the ridge, then a strong ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern Gulf may just continue pushing it W-WNW toward Mexico. Really, really low confidence there.

Concerning intensity, once the convection builds near the center it should steadily strengthen. Quite possibly it could become a 75-80 mph hurricane prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. But once in the Caribbean, the GFS indicates increasing low-level easterly winds (30-40 kt easterly winds at 850mb). This would lead to low-level divergence, a pattern that could tilt the storm and lead to weakening to a sheared TS. Of course, the GFS wind projections could be wrong, so my confidence in any weakening in the eastern Caribbean isn't high. I don't see conditions favorable for it to become a major hurricane, though.

So now we wait. I fully expect a call from the office at 3:45am tomorrow telling me we have TD 3 on our hands.

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

57,what do you think about the lack of low level convergence that has been the topic of the day here?.

[KWT]

Woah your really agressive wxman57, even more agressive then myself and I'm normally on these systems a lot!

Oh well I suppose we need to still watch it then!

This wil lbe really interesting to see who winds, I think both will have aspects of this, I think we will get a TD out of this but its going to have to develop the very hard way IMO.

[txwatcher91]

That is about 100% different than Derek who thinks it is done. He puts development at 10-20%. Who will win this battle of the Pro Mets?

JMHO, but convection is slowly increasing in coverage to the west and over/near the circulation on latest IR. I think wxman57 is more likely to be correct, but we will see.

[mutley]

My take is that it looks quite impressive this afternoon, as good as i expected it to look at this time and quite a bit more organized than most invests ever are. With a well-defined LLC present, I think it's only a matter of time before convection builds over the center (probably tonight) and the NHC upgrades it to TD 3. I think there's at least a 50% shot it'll be upgraded by 4am CDT tomorrow, and a 70-80% shot it'll be upgraded by 4pm tomorrow.

Now, about its future track. Early on, it looked like it might take the opportunity to turn NW as it approached the Caribbean. I don't think that'll be the case now. High pressure off the southeast U.S. coast may be too strong and extend too far east to allow for recurvature east of the Caribbean, and the upper trof to its north between 50-60W just may not extend far enough south. So a track into the east Caribbean north of Dominica looks probable, passing into the Caribbean overnight on Thursday with a heading of 280-290 deg. Beyond then, lots of uncertainties. The GFS tries to move the weakness in the ridge westward (north of the system). This could allow for more of a WNW movement toward the DR on Saturday, and it could cause a NW-N turn somewhere between PR and eastern Cuba late Saturday or on Sunday. That's a very low confidence forecast. If it misses the weakness in the ridge, then a strong ridge of high pressure over the central and eastern Gulf may just continue pushing it W-WNW toward Mexico. Really, really low confidence there.

Concerning intensity, once the convection builds near the center it should steadily strengthen. Quite possibly it could become a 75-80 mph hurricane prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean. But once in the Caribbean, the GFS indicates increasing low-level easterly winds (30-40 kt easterly winds at 850mb). This would lead to low-level divergence, a pattern that could tilt the storm and lead to weakening to a sheared TS. Of course, the GFS wind projections could be wrong, so my confidence in any weakening in the eastern Caribbean isn't high. I don't see conditions favorable for it to become a major hurricane, though.

So now we wait. I fully expect a call from the office at 3:45am tomorrow telling me we have TD 3 on our hands.

That is about 100% different than Derek who thinks it is done. He puts development at 10-20%. Who will win this battle of the Pro Mets?

I don't know which, but one of them will be King Arthur, and the other, the Black Knight. (Monty Python)

[Ivanhater]

So wxman..what is going on with the models dropping it today?

[KWT]

The thing is with Sat estimates at 2.0 now IF convection does develo pover the center then we will an upgrade straight away IMO to a 30kt depression.
got to admit this is really interesting stuff.

I want to see the divergence gone before I get too hopefully of anything happening, awaiting the next updated convergence maps.

snoopdogg, cool stuff!

[caribepr]

Its good news that our friends in the Eastern Caribbean will not have to deal with at one point one model had as a cat 2 moving thru the Northern Leewards.However,the peak of the season is some weeks away so the season has a long way to go.

From's your keyboard to that system's ppphhhhttt!

[MiamiensisWx]

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/9004/realityut7.png

This one's done.

I'll offer some reasoning to support this post.

The lack of low level convergence has resulted in very scarce convection directly over the surface low. The convection to the south of 94L appears to be associated with a broad surface trough. Low level convergence is greater in that vicinity, which is more supportive of consistent and widespread thunderstorm development. This is "robbing" 94L of low level inflow, since cyclonic turning of the wind vectors is evident further south as well. Some subsidence could be greatly hindering 94L, too. This does not appear to change down the road as well. Overall, this may briefly become classified as a TD, and that is doubtful. It is quite probable that any formative LLC will dissipate, in my view.

It's still July.

[wxman57]

57,what do you think about the lack of low level convergence that has been the topic of the day here?.

Convection is the key. Convection will generate convergence. Watch for a burst of convection tonight or tomorrow morning. One think looks certain, if it doesn't develop by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean then it won't likely develop at all. Low level winds look too strong in the Caribbean to support development, but they're not too strong now. Convection is starting to build a bit all around the center now, which I estimate to be near 11.9N/44.4W at 5pm CDT.

It's interesting that the NHC often refuses to downgrade tropical storms that look as good as 24L does now - exposed LLCs with weak convection - yet they won't upgrade a similar system to at TD. Just a thought...

[wxman57]

On the other hand, if it doesn't develop then I don't have to work 2 weeks straight without a day off! Come on, Derek!

I really can't lose here. If it develops, I'm right. If it doesn't I get a weekend off.

[KWT]

Cool wxman I had the center at 44W so my estimate wasn't massivly off.
Also I also can see that weak convection pop right close to the center, thats the first time for a long while thats happened maybe a sign things are starting to change for the better with this system who knows?

Also got to admit I did think they would upgrade with 2.0 from the SSD earlier but alas they didn't.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The battle of the pro mets is on!



Who will win? The bullish wxman57 or the bearish Derek Ortt? TIme will tell...