ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Cape Verde]

Does someone know why this hurricane has kept its structure so well over land. The last radar image I saw was when it made landfall, and I think it looks better now than it did before.

That might be the effect of the sun setting and shadows enhancing the eye.

[jhamps10]

:uarrow: The way she is going she might start strengthening over land soon Seriously though, I doubt that could ever happen, right?

Tropical storm Erin last year appeared to intensify over land.

yeah just ask folks in OKLAHOMA!!

[loro-rojo]

Does someone know why this hurricane has kept its structure so well over land. The last radar image I saw was when it made landfall, and I think it looks better now than it did before.

That might be the effect of the sun setting and shadows enhancing the eye.

I mean the radar image.

[Air Force Met]

This is going to go well south of the next forecast point...and it is moving a lot slower. I would have to move at 310 at 10 kts...

This is a serious problem shaping up flooding wise.

Hey AFM, what do you think of the better satellite and radar presentation?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-avn.html

I think it is the terrific outflow...hence the reason I did not really understand the forecast of a Cat 1 in the first place. The outflow was darn near perfect.

[txwatcher91]

Does someone know why this hurricane has kept its structure so well over land. The last radar image I saw was when it made landfall, and I think it looks better now than it did before.

That might be the effect of the sun setting and shadows enhancing the eye.

Radar is not affected by the sun setting or rising. Only visible satellite is, IR shows a less cloudy eye, even though it still is clouded.

[txwatcher91]

This is going to go well south of the next forecast point...and it is moving a lot slower. I would have to move at 310 at 10 kts...

This is a serious problem shaping up flooding wise.

Hey AFM, what do you think of the better satellite and radar presentation?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-avn.html

I think it is the terrific outflow...hence the reason I did not really understand the forecast of a Cat 1 in the first place. The outflow was darn near perfect.

Why do you think it appears to be "intensifying" over land? I have only seen this with Erin before.

[Cape Verde]

Does someone know why this hurricane has kept its structure so well over land. The last radar image I saw was when it made landfall, and I think it looks better now than it did before.

That might be the effect of the sun setting and shadows enhancing the eye.

I mean the radar image.

You did say radar. I obviously can't read well while eating at the computer. Sorry.

[fasterdisaster]

It's not intensifying though it is holding up well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

The eye is disappearing but it is still definitely a hurricane.

[Hyperstorm]

I think it is the terrific outflow...hence the reason I did not really understand the forecast of a Cat 1 in the first place. The outflow was darn near perfect.

I think it was the fact that none of the models showed much more than a strong category 1. Not only that, but the trends early in the game indicated that Dolly had a disrupted inner core and the interaction with the upper low was more than anticipated (shear/dry air). Also, the forward speed was too fast to the point of the NHC forecasters kind of doubting that the storm would slow down as much as predicted by the models. I think you can infer that last part by reading one of the NHC discussions that the forecaster called "unnerving".

The only problem I find was when the pressure was plummeting early this morning and the winds were not being bumped up accordingly. Even though flight-level winds hadn't yet supported the wind increase, you can always assume the aircraft didn't sample the strongest winds.

Other than that (intensity has ALWAYS been an issue), the NHC did very well...

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

The eye reappears over land!

Also, back a few pages, on the effects of Dolly ... here in Gulf shores as Doll increased in strength the wave heights here rose to 4-5 feet from a normal 2 feet. I just can't imagine how destructive this is to the coastal communities near landfall.

[jasons2k]

Incredible RF totals:

[wxmann_91]

The environment just keeps getting better and better and the outflow continues to expand in all quadrants... likely offsetting the fact that Dolly is on land. But wow. What a beaut. Imagine if this environment had been present 24-36 hr earlier.

[Chacor]

From 45 minutes ago: Still maintaining its structure.

[Air Force Met]

Why do you think it appears to be "intensifying" over land? I have only seen this with Erin before.

Increased frictional effects causing boundary layer convergence to increase near the eye...and its still close enough to the coast to draw in some moisture...

Most storms are 100 miles inland at this point...not 20.

[jasons2k]

1-hour rainfall totals have dropped dramatically though:

[DESTRUCTION5]

What are the totals to go with the colors?

[CrazyC83]

The environment just keeps getting better and better and the outflow continues to expand in all quadrants... likely offsetting the fact that Dolly is on land. But wow. What a beaut. Imagine if this environment had been present 24-36 hr earlier.

We likely would have had a major hurricane. I don't get why a lot think it was much stronger than expected and they were surprised by it...I was predicting a major and it fell below.

[fasterdisaster]

I think Dolly was probably 12 hours away from Category 4 if she didn't bump into Texas.

[Wx_Warrior]

Good video
http://video.ap.org/v/Default.aspx?partner=en-ap&g=eeba79ec-28d3-47f2-a413-af6a7d6e2998&t=s1179980883147&p=ENAPus_ENAPus&&f=txhou

82 photos
http://www.chron.com/news/photogallery/Texas_Gulf_Coast_keeps_an_eye_on_Dolly.html

[Hyperstorm]

Does someone know why this hurricane has kept its structure so well over land. The last radar image I saw was when it made landfall, and I think it looks better now than it did before.

It happens more frequently than some people think (i.e. Katrina 2005, Claudette 2003, etc.)

As Air Force Met mentioned, the upper-level outflow has a lot to do with it. The storm is being ventilated very well. With the daytime heating, the storm spreads out and "appears" to strengthen or maintains itself for a longer period. Another factor that helps is the strengthening up to near landfall, so the storm tends to remain intact for a while longer than usual. While the system is near the coast, its outer bands can feed from the ocean and wrap themselves around the core.

In addition, one theory that I have that may help systems "appear" to strengthen while overland is that the system is raining itself out over land to the point of the land almost becoming as humid and moist as the ocean for the hurricane. With good outflow in the upper-levels this process is visible.