ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jinftl]

Meaning no real slowdown as it approaches either south florida or cuba? I am not going to mention what storm that brings to mind....one plowing into south florida at a good clip coming from the east.

The only thing I'll say is the GFS tends to overdo cold thrusts past 120hrs.

Anyway there are certainly signs this may just continue to plow westwards without much if any turning to the NW, but the uncertain part is exactly where does it track, does it go through the straights, does it hit S.Florida or does it hit Ciuba?

[KWT]

Quite possibly thats the case jinftl. I think the 12z suite will be most interesting to see if 2 model runs in a row do the same sort of thing but there does seem to be something of a trend in regards to the models shifting westwards...

[Sirius LeWindy]

When will NOAA data start being entered into the models?

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

NOAA WP-3'S WILL BEGIN RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING 05/0800Z.

Talking to myself this morning is not a good way to start the day.

[caneman]

The 06 GFS looks like garbage to me. It shows a more shallow system than Hannah now and throughout the life of Ike.

[KWT]

Note the key thing is the GFS holds the ridge, as AFM was saying last night look not just at the storm but the surrounding set-up and you can judge what a storm is going to do by that.

Anyway 06z HWRF coming through now.

[Sirius LeWindy]

So it will be the 12 and 18Z models of today with the NOAA data right?

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL ends just west of Key West:

WHXX04 KWBC 051129
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.7 60.3 280./12.0
6 23.6 61.8 266./13.5
12 23.6 63.1 270./12.3
18 23.5 64.4 268./11.7
24 23.3 65.8 260./13.3
30 22.9 67.0 252./11.5
36 22.6 68.4 258./13.5
42 22.1 69.6 249./11.9
48 22.0 71.0 265./12.8
54 21.8 72.2 257./11.8
60 21.6 73.5 265./12.0
66 21.5 74.7 263./11.2
72 21.2 75.8 254./10.5
78 21.2 76.7 271./ 8.5
84 21.3 77.7 276./ 9.6
90 21.5 78.7 282./ 8.7
96 21.6 79.7 275./ 9.6
102 22.0 80.5 294./ 8.7
108 22.5 81.2 308./ 8.3
114 22.9 81.8 306./ 6.5
120 23.5 82.5 309./ 9.1
126 24.0 83.2 305./ 8.1

[KWT]

HWRF, skirts the north Cuban coasts then lifts NW and hits SE Florida, Mami-Dade I'd guess?

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL ends just west of Key West:

WHXX04 KWBC 051129
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.7 60.3 280./12.0
6 23.6 61.8 266./13.5
12 23.6 63.1 270./12.3
18 23.5 64.4 268./11.7
24 23.3 65.8 260./13.3
30 22.9 67.0 252./11.5
36 22.6 68.4 258./13.5
42 22.1 69.6 249./11.9
48 22.0 71.0 265./12.8
54 21.8 72.2 257./11.8
60 21.6 73.5 265./12.0
66 21.5 74.7 263./11.2
72 21.2 75.8 254./10.5
78 21.2 76.7 271./ 8.5
84 21.3 77.7 276./ 9.6
90 21.5 78.7 282./ 8.7
96 21.6 79.7 275./ 9.6
102 22.0 80.5 294./ 8.7
108 22.5 81.2 308./ 8.3
114 22.9 81.8 306./ 6.5
120 23.5 82.5 309./ 9.1
126 24.0 83.2 305./ 8.1

Looking more and more like a Gulf storm to me this morning..not a FL Penn one

[O Town]

LOL, Destruct did you forget the other half of FL is on the Gulf.........

[KWT]

Well the GFDL suggests Gulf, the HWRF suggests south Florida but the HWRF doesn't take it as far WSW as the GFDL does for as long so thats where the difference is.

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow:
LOL, Destruct did you forget the other half of FL is on the Gulf.........

For a second..LOL

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm sure it has been posted already. Until Recon gets in there. None of these Models have much validity. As more and more Recon fly in and the track stays the same somewhat. Then I'll prepare. As for now. Everyone from the Gulf to the Carolinas should keep one eye on Ike.

[Frank P]

I'm sure it has been posted already. Until Recon gets in there. None of these Models have much validity. As more and more Recon fly in and the track stays the same somewhat. Then I'll prepare. As for now. Everyone from the Gulf to the Carolinas should keep one eye on Ike.

Yeah but if I were in SFL/KEYS right now I think I'd have BOTH EYES on IKE...

[deltadog03]

You can't say that these models don't have validity....This IS what models do...This is there purpose and why they are good. Recon, into the storm, dosn't really do anything for a storm.

[KWT]

GFDL weakens Ike till 24hrs then starts to have it deepen pretty quickly again as it takes its WSW plunge, down to 949mbs by 54hrs again...

[Dean4Storms]

Geez, the trend here is not looking good for South Florida, Keys or the upper Gulf Coast eventually.

[miamijaaz]

So in less than 2 days the GFS has gone from a recurve east of the Bahamas to a straight shoot west through Key West.

Forgive me, but from a layman's point of view, I thought our models were more accurate than that at 4-5 days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 HWRF continues to pound SFL from the South..